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Kuressaare vs Laagri Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2025
Time: 11:30
Final 1-3
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Vs
48%
25%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Kuressaare are favoured to win this Meistriliiga clash, with a 48% chance of taking the points, a 25% draw probability and a 27% chance for Laagri to upset them. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% chance of that outcome. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% probability. Kuressaare, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded, while Laagri, on the road, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.3% probability of hitting. The home win percentage is 48%, the draw percentage 25%, and the away win percentage 27%. All figures are presented exactly once, in a concise, neutral tone.

Results analysis

Kuressaare’s run of two wins and a draw ended in a shock 1-3 loss to Laagri, who were on a two-game winning streak before the match. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 48% chance but proved wrong, as the away side secured the victory. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit its mark, with a 82.3% probability. The expected total of 3.1 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 (23% probability) were not realised. Overall, the prediction missed the outcome but correctly anticipated the goal count, highlighting the unpredictability of this fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kuressaare win✗ Miss
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win✓ Hit
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L13L12L12L23L11D23L02L21W02LA·KAL18/05H·FLO27/05A·VAP01/06H·FC 14/06H·TAM17/06A·LAA29/06A·TRA05/07H·TAM11/07H·VAP20/07A·FC 01/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.971.431.571.002.31
vs Stronger (12)0.752.670.802.200.713.00
vs Similar (18)1.501.501.781.221.221.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D24L01L12L01L11D13L03L22D02LA·PAI17/05A·TRA27/05H·FC 31/05A·TAM13/06A·KAL18/06H·KUR29/06A·TAL13/07A·FC 19/07A·VAP25/07A·PAI03/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.871.921.331.502.22
vs Stronger (12)1.002.331.251.750.882.62
vs Similar (18)2.111.562.251.122.001.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.3%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.7%
3-1
5.7%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Laagri goals →
01234
05.7%4.9%3.8%1.7%0.5%
17.2%12%6.9%3.0%1.0%
27.3%9.5%6.1%2.6%0.9%
34.4%5.7%3.7%1.6%0.5%
42.0%2.5%1.6%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Kuressaare is 0.11 points worse than Laagri in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Kuressaare is 0.44 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.36).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Kuressaare is 0.18 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.94).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L01L01L22D10W22D01L01L01LA·KAL18/05H·FLO27/05A·VAP01/06H·FC 14/06H·TAM17/06A·LAA29/06A·TRA05/07H·TAM11/07H·VAP20/07A·FC 01/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.500.640.750.81
vs Stronger (12)0.420.920.000.600.711.14
vs Similar (18)0.780.610.780.670.780.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L01L02L00D01L02L02L11D01LA·PAI17/05A·TRA27/05H·FC 31/05A·TAM13/06A·KAL18/06H·KUR29/06A·TAL13/07A·FC 19/07A·VAP25/07A·PAI03/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.100.580.830.561.28
vs Stronger (12)0.501.250.501.000.501.38
vs Similar (18)0.611.000.620.750.601.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L12L11D11D01L01L01L01L20W01LA·KAL18/05H·FLO27/05A·VAP01/06H·FC 14/06H·TAM17/06A·LAA29/06A·TRA05/07H·TAM11/07H·VAP20/07A·FC 01/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.230.930.930.251.50
vs Stronger (12)0.331.750.801.600.001.86
vs Similar (18)0.720.891.000.560.441.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D22D00D10W01L10W11D01L11D01LA·PAI17/05A·TRA27/05H·FC 31/05A·TAM13/06A·KAL18/06H·KUR29/06A·TAL13/07A·FC 19/07A·VAP25/07A·PAI03/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.771.330.500.940.94
vs Stronger (12)0.501.080.750.750.381.25
vs Similar (18)1.500.561.620.381.400.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare and Laagri have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare and Laagri have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare and Laagri have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
0
KUR wins
5
Draws
1
LAA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kuressaare vs Laagri · H/A from KUR
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/25ALaagri Vs KUR1-1
16/03/25HKUR Vs Laagri1-2
04/11/23HKUR Vs Laagri1-1
01/07/23ALaagri Vs KUR1-1
23/05/23ALaagri Vs KUR1-1
07/03/23HKUR Vs Laagri1-1

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KUR2-0
20/07/25HKUR Vs Vaprus2-1
11/07/25HKUR Vs Tammeka0-2
05/07/25ATrans Narva Vs KUR3-2
29/06/25ALaagri Vs KUR1-1
17/06/25HKUR Vs Tammeka2-3
14/06/25HKUR Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-2
01/06/25AVaprus Vs KUR2-1
27/05/25HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn1-3
18/05/25AKalju Nomme Vs KUR4-0

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/25APaide Vs LAA2-0
25/07/25AVaprus Vs LAA2-2
19/07/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs LAA3-0
13/07/25ATallinna Kalev Vs LAA3-1
29/06/25HLAA Vs Kuressaare1-1
18/06/25AKalju Nomme Vs LAA1-0
13/06/25ATammeka Vs LAA2-1
31/05/25HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
27/05/25ATrans Narva Vs LAA4-2
17/05/25APaide Vs LAA2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWL0.82
HomeLLLLW0.96
AwayLLDLL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%25%15%
AVG goals2.842.623.04
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %28%21%35%
Scored1.061.121.00
Conceded1.781.502.04
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDL1.52
HomeWLLLD1.77
AwayLLLDL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%36%
AVG goals3.903.684.07
Over 1.5 %88%82%93%
Over 2.5 %70%64%75%
Over 3.5 %52%45%57%
Scored2.262.412.14
Conceded1.641.271.93
BTTS62%55%68%
Clean Sheet20%27%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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