Kuressaare is coming off a win, having beaten Laagri 3-2 in their last encounter, with the home side's recent form showing a mix of results, but a positive note. Laagri, on the other hand, has struggled recently, with two consecutive defeats.
The model predicts a home win, favouring Kuressaare to take the three points. The expected total goals average is 2.6, with the most likely score being 1-1, although this is not the most probable total number of goals. Kuressaare has struggled to score at home, averaging 0.7 goals, while conceding 1.8. Away from home, Laagri averages 1.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded against a weaker opponent.
The model's selection for the match is the home win, with a 37% probability of Kuressaare taking the three points. The draw is a 29% possibility, while Laagri winning is 33% likely. The model's suggested picks are the Under 3.5 with a 74.7% probability, offering a 10% edge, and the Over 1.5 with a 73.6% probability. The home win percentage is 37%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
Results analysis
The win extends Kuressaare's run of form, coming off the back of a win and having beaten Laagri 3-2 in their last encounter. The final score of 3-2 was a far cry from the model's expected total of 2.6 goals, with the actual total significantly exceeding this figure. The model's selection, a Home win, was correct, with the home team emerging victorious. The model's pick was the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 37%. The Under 3.5 selection, with a probability of 74.7%, missed, while the Over 1.5 selection, with a probability of 73.6%, hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kuressaare winâś“ Hit
37.4%
Avg Implied 34.5% · @ 2.60
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
Dafabet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
888Sport
2.63
Drawâś— Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.37
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.52
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Laagri winâś— Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied 38.8% · @ 2.31
Edge
-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.40
Dafabet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.35
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Kuressaare
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.57
1.13
1.53
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.71
0.62
1.50
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.47
1.17
1.67
1.78
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
1.50
3.65
1.24
1.15
1.85
vs Stronger (12)
1.25
1.92
2.00
1.86
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (17)
2.12
1.29
2.44
0.89
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
26.00
0.00
26.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
@ 1.18-3.5%
Under 1.5
26.4%
@ 3.97+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
888Sport
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.64-9.1%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 2.09+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
888Sport
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.66
Under
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.09
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.3%
@ 2.56-10.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
@ 1.42+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
888Sport
2.70
Betfair
2.70
10Bet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.59
Under
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
@ 1.52-6.7%
No
46.9%
@ 2.27+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
No
Betfair
2.38
Unibet
2.33
William Hil
2.30
888Sport
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.22+7.2%
0-0
9.1%@ 11.94+5.5%
1-0
9.0%@ 9.66+4.7%
0-1
8.4%@ 9.03+3.7%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.83+3.6%
1-2
7.8%@ 8.10+2.6%
2-0
6.8%@ 13.10+3.6%
0-2
5.9%@ 11.50+2.3%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Laagri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
8.4%
5.9%
2.4%
0.8%
1
9.0%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.4%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
3
3.0%
3.7%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Kuressaare is 0.61 points worse than Laagri in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Kuressaare is 0.76 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Kuressaare is 0.29 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.47
1.07
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.14
0.86
0.12
0.88
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.80
0.50
1.33
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.83
1.76
0.53
0.62
1.23
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.92
1.14
0.86
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.82
1.11
0.33
1.00
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
12.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.67
0.47
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.50
0.62
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.67
1.88
0.71
0.54
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.47
1.33
0.56
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
14.00
0.00
14.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.7%
1.42
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
+10.3%
âś— Miss
Over 1.5
73.6%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-3.5%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Kuressaare and Laagri have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Kuressaare and Laagri have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Kuressaare and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Kuressaare and Laagri have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Nõmme United