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Kuressaare vs Paide Result & Analysis

Date: 23/07/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 0-4
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Vs
24%
27%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Kuressaare win✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L03L12L11D00D02L02L30W11D31WH·PAI07/05H·FLO14/05H·TAL20/05A·LAA23/05A·TAM27/05H·FC 06/06A·KAL10/06H·TRA27/06A·LAA01/07A·TAL08/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.501.211.711.501.31
vs Stronger (12)1.082.171.002.291.202.00
vs Similar (18)1.561.061.431.141.641.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D12L00D10W00D11D00D00D02LH·VAP21/05A·TAL24/05H·TRA28/05A·FLO07/06A·LAA11/06H·KAL27/06A·VAP30/06H·FLO07/07A·B3612/07H·B3620/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.931.250.881.141.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.500.920.501.000.500.83
vs Weaker (18)1.670.941.700.801.621.12
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.7%
Under 2.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
1-3
5.2%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
07.9%9.8%8.9%4.8%2.0%
16.0%13%9.5%5.2%2.1%
23.9%6.3%5.1%2.8%1.1%
31.4%2.3%1.8%1.0%0.4%
40.4%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Kuressaare is 0.28 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.47).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Kuressaare is 0.39 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.39).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Kuressaare is 0.72 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.94).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L10W11D00D00D00D10W01L20WH·PAI07/05H·FLO14/05H·TAL20/05A·LAA23/05A·TAM27/05H·FC 06/06A·KAL10/06H·TRA27/06A·LAA01/07A·TAL08/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.640.640.560.69
vs Stronger (12)0.671.080.711.140.601.00
vs Similar (18)0.560.390.570.140.550.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D11D00D00D00D10W00D00D00DH·VAP21/05A·TAL24/05H·TRA28/05A·FLO07/06A·LAA11/06H·KAL27/06A·VAP30/06H·FLO07/07A·B3612/07H·B3620/07
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.400.620.310.430.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.000.330.000.330.000.33
vs Weaker (18)0.890.441.000.300.750.62
Clean sheet %77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L02L00D00D02L02L20W10W11DH·PAI07/05H·FLO14/05H·TAL20/05A·LAA23/05A·TAM27/05H·FC 06/06A·KAL10/06H·TRA27/06A·LAA01/07A·TAL08/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.830.571.070.940.62
vs Stronger (12)0.421.080.291.140.601.00
vs Similar (18)1.000.670.861.001.090.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D01L00D10W00D01L00D00D02LH·VAP21/05A·TAL24/05H·TRA28/05A·FLO07/06A·LAA11/06H·KAL27/06A·VAP30/06H·FLO07/07A·B3612/07H·B3620/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.530.620.560.710.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.500.580.500.670.500.50
vs Weaker (18)0.780.500.700.500.880.50
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare's squad is €2m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare's attack is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare's defence is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
KUR wins
3
Draws
1
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kuressaare vs Paide · H/A from KUR
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/23HKUR Vs Paide1-4
15/03/23APaide Vs KUR0-1
09/10/22HKUR Vs Paide3-3
14/08/22APaide Vs KUR0-0
18/06/22APaide Vs KUR1-1
23/04/22HKUR Vs Paide2-1

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/07/23ATallinna Kalev Vs KUR1-3
01/07/23ALaagri Vs KUR1-1
27/06/23HKUR Vs Trans Narva3-0
10/06/23AKalju Nomme Vs KUR2-0
06/06/23HKUR Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-2
27/05/23ATammeka Vs KUR0-0
23/05/23ALaagri Vs KUR1-1
20/05/23HKUR Vs Tallinna Kalev1-2
14/05/23HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn0-3
07/05/23HKUR Vs Paide1-4

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/23HPAI Vs B36 Torshavn0-2
12/07/23AB36 Torshavn Vs PAI0-0
07/07/23HPAI Vs Flora Tallinn0-0
30/06/23AVaprus Vs PAI1-1
27/06/23HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
11/06/23ALaagri Vs PAI0-1
07/06/23AFlora Tallinn Vs PAI0-0
28/05/23HPAI Vs Trans Narva1-2
24/05/23ATallinna Kalev Vs PAI1-1
21/05/23HPAI Vs Vaprus0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW1.36
HomeLLLLW1.36
AwayDDLDW1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals2.682.842.52
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.261.361.16
Conceded1.421.481.36
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDL1.36
HomeLLDDL1.23
AwayDDWDD1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%31%33%
AVG goals2.302.082.54
Over 1.5 %62%54%71%
Over 2.5 %38%35%42%
Over 3.5 %16%12%21%
Scored1.321.231.42
Conceded0.980.851.12
BTTS46%31%62%
Clean Sheet34%46%21%
Corners7.868.507.00
Cards6.507.334.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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