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Kuressaare vs Paide Result & Analysis

Date: 04/08/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 0-2
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Vs
22%
26%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kuressaare win✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win✓ Hit
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L22D02L11D10W02L22D00D00D11DA·FLO21/05H·VAP28/05A·FC 01/06H·NÕM16/06A·TRA19/06H·PAI28/06A·TAL03/07H·TAM12/07A·FC 21/07H·VAP28/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.601.121.500.711.71
vs Stronger (13)0.232.690.403.600.122.12
vs Similar (17)1.470.761.450.551.501.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L52W01L20W22D21W01L31W12L40WA·FLO01/06A·TAL15/06H·VAP18/06A·KUR28/06H·TRA04/07A·BAL11/07H·BAL18/07H·TAL21/07A·STJ25/07H·STJ01/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.171.571.001.751.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.401.471.831.171.111.67
vs Weaker (15)1.930.871.380.882.570.86
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.6%
0-2 ✓
9.2%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
6.0%
1-0
5.5%
1-3
5.5%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
07.5%9.6%9.2%5.2%2.2%
15.5%13%9.7%5.5%2.4%
23.5%6.0%5.1%2.9%1.2%
31.2%2.1%1.8%1.0%0.4%
40.3%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.42
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.94
Trans Narva
1.17
Tammeka
1.17
Viimsi
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Kuressaare
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
0.87
Nõmme United
0.42
Kuressaare is 1.06 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.28
Kalju Nomme
2.19
Paide
2.06
Flora Tallinn
1.92
Trans Narva
1.33
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
1.28
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Nõmme United
0.61
Viimsi
0.50
Kuressaare is 0.78 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 2.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.53
Paide
1.08
Flora Tallinn
1.19
Kalju Nomme
1.22
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.58
Trans Narva
1.75
Kuressaare
1.86
Tallinna Kalev
1.97
Nõmme United
2.19
Kuressaare is 0.78 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W01L11D00D01L22D00D00D00DA·FLO21/05H·VAP28/05A·FC 01/06H·NÕM16/06A·TRA19/06H·PAI28/06A·TAL03/07H·TAM12/07A·FC 21/07H·VAP28/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.690.620.500.71
vs Stronger (13)0.151.080.201.400.120.88
vs Similar (17)0.940.350.910.271.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L22D00D10W02L00D01L11D01L10WA·FLO01/06A·TAL15/06H·VAP18/06A·KUR28/06H·TRA04/07A·BAL11/07H·BAL18/07H·TAL21/07A·STJ25/07H·STJ01/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.670.640.430.810.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.870.731.000.170.781.11
vs Weaker (15)0.600.600.380.620.860.57
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L01L00D10W01L00D00D00D11DA·FLO21/05H·VAP28/05A·FC 01/06H·NÕM16/06A·TRA19/06H·PAI28/06A·TAL03/07H·TAM12/07A·FC 21/07H·VAP28/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.930.440.880.211.00
vs Stronger (13)0.081.620.202.200.001.25
vs Similar (17)0.530.410.550.270.500.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W01L10W20W21W00D20W11D30WA·FLO01/06A·TAL15/06H·VAP18/06A·KUR28/06H·TRA04/07A·BAL11/07H·BAL18/07H·TAL21/07A·STJ25/07H·STJ01/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.500.930.570.940.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.530.730.831.000.330.56
vs Weaker (15)1.330.271.000.251.710.29
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare's squad is €2m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare's attack is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare's defence is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
KUR wins
2
Draws
5
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kuressaare vs Paide · H/A from KUR
DateH/AGameScore
28/06/24HKUR Vs Paide0-2
06/04/24APaide Vs KUR3-1
22/10/23APaide Vs KUR1-0
23/07/23HKUR Vs Paide0-4
07/05/23HKUR Vs Paide1-4
15/03/23APaide Vs KUR0-1
09/10/22HKUR Vs Paide3-3
14/08/22APaide Vs KUR0-0

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/24HKUR Vs Vaprus1-1
21/07/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KUR0-0
12/07/24HKUR Vs Tammeka0-0
03/07/24ATallinna Kalev Vs KUR2-2
28/06/24HKUR Vs Paide0-2
19/06/24ATrans Narva Vs KUR0-1
16/06/24HKUR Vs Nõmme United1-1
01/06/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KUR2-0
28/05/24HKUR Vs Vaprus2-2
21/05/24AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR1-0

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/24HPAI Vs Stjarnan4-0
25/07/24AStjarnan Vs PAI2-1
21/07/24HPAI Vs Tallinna Kalev3-1
18/07/24HPAI Vs Bala Town0-1
11/07/24ABala Town Vs PAI1-2
04/07/24HPAI Vs Trans Narva2-2
28/06/24AKuressaare Vs PAI0-2
18/06/24HPAI Vs Vaprus0-1
15/06/24ATallinna Kalev Vs PAI2-5
01/06/24AFlora Tallinn Vs PAI2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDD1.08
HomeDDLDD1.20
AwayLLWDD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%28%24%
AVG goals2.722.842.60
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.021.160.88
Conceded1.701.681.72
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.62
HomeLDLWW1.65
AwayLWWWL1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%44%
AVG goals2.542.652.44
Over 1.5 %70%70%70%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %26%35%19%
Scored1.561.701.44
Conceded0.980.961.00
BTTS46%39%52%
Clean Sheet34%35%33%
Corners9.009.00-
Cards10.0010.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3687
75%
2.4
8219+63
2.8
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.30.5
-
2Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3672
58%
2.0
7944+35
3.4
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.21.2
-
3PaidePaide3672
64%
2.0
7439+35
3.1
81%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.11.1
-
4Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3670
58%
1.9
6943+26
3.1
78%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
5TammekaTammeka3642
31%
1.2
4754-7
2.8
81%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.5
-
6Trans NarvaTrans Narva3642
28%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
58%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.8
-
7VaprusVaprus3635
25%
1.0
3557-22
2.6
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.6
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3634
22%
0.9
4667-21
3.1
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.9
-
9Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3833
21%
0.9
3875-37
3.0
84%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3615
6%
0.4
2279-57
2.8
86%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.62.2
-
11ViimsiViimsi22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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