This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.10
1.94
0.88
1.23
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.50
1.83
1.17
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (18)
1.83
0.83
2.00
0.73
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.0%
Under 1.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.7%
Under 2.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.2%
Under 3.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.8%
No
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.6%
1-1
14.2%
0-0
14.2%
0-2
9.8%
1-0
9.2%
1-2 â
8.0%
2-1
5.3%
2-0
4.3%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Paide goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
15%
9.8%
4.1%
1.3%
1
9.2%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
4.3%
5.3%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.2%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.60
Trans Narva
2.40
JK Tabasalu
2.25
Laagri
2.25
Vaprus
2.25
Tamper
2.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.25
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.25
Kuressaare
2.25
LÃĪÃĪnemaa Haapsalu
2.00
Helios
2.00
Phoenix
2.00
Paide
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Elva
2.00
Legion
1.75
Maksatransport
1.50
Kohtla-JÃĪrve
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Vastseliina
1.50
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
NÃĩmme United
1.50
Tammeka
1.50
Hiiumaa
1.33
Tulevik
1.33
Flora II
1.33
KUBIK
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
TalTech
0.91
Laagri III
0.91
Flora IV
0.91
Rae Spordikool
0.91
Volta II / Arsenal
0.91
Keila
0.91
Joker
0.91
Kallaste United
0.91
Lootus JÃĪrve
0.91
Kompanii Marjamaa
0.50
JÃĪrva-Jaani
0.00
Kose II
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Saue
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Hell Hunt
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Smsraha
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
Vigri MaarjamÃĪe
0.00
Eston Villa
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Olympic
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Poseidon
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Saku Sporting
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Kuressaare is 0.25 points better than Paide in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 2.00).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tammeka
12.50
Laagri
11.00
Vaprus
6.25
Kalju Nomme
6.00
Tallinna Kalev
5.50
Kuressaare
5.25
Elva
4.67
NÃĩmme United
4.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
4.40
Tartu Kalev
4.33
Tallinna Kalev II
4.00
Trans Narva
3.80
LÃĪÃĪnemaa Haapsalu
3.67
Hiiumaa
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.00
Vastseliina
3.00
JK Tabasalu
3.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.00
Helios
2.50
Team Helm
2.50
Legion
2.50
Phoenix
2.50
Tamper
2.50
TalTech
2.05
Laagri III
2.05
Flora IV
2.05
Rae Spordikool
2.05
Volta II / Arsenal
2.05
Keila
2.05
Joker
2.05
Kallaste United
2.05
Lootus JÃĪrve
2.05
Kohtla-JÃĪrve
2.00
FC Tallinn
1.75
Tulevik
1.67
Flora II
1.67
Maksatransport
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Paide
1.33
FC Kohvile
1.00
Kose
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Welco X
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Smsraha
1.00
EstHam United
1.00
Eston Villa
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
Poseidon
1.00
Rumori Calcio
1.00
Saku Sporting
1.00
JÃĪrva-Jaani
0.00
Kose II
0.00
Saue
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
Vigri MaarjamÃĪe
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Olympic
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Kuressaare is 3.92 goals better than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (5.25 vs 1.33).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Helios
0.50
Kuressaare
0.50
Trans Narva
0.60
Paide
0.67
Kalju Nomme
0.67
Laagri
0.75
Vaprus
0.75
Zealot Sporting
1.00
JK Tabasalu
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
Viimsi
1.00
Tammeka
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.25
Elva
1.33
Legion
1.50
Phoenix
1.50
NÃĩmme United
1.50
LÃĪÃĪnemaa Haapsalu
1.67
Maksatransport
2.00
Hiiumaa
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Flora Tallinn
2.00
Vastseliina
2.50
Tallinna Kalev II
2.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
2.50
Tartu Kalev
2.67
Flora II
2.67
Tamper
2.75
JÃĪrva-Jaani
3.00
FC Kohvile
3.00
Hell Hunt
3.00
Raplamaa
3.00
Lootos
3.00
Welco X
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Smsraha
3.00
EstHam United
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.50
Team Helm
3.50
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.50
Saue
4.00
Kuusalu Kalev
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Poseidon
4.00
TalTech
4.18
Laagri III
4.18
Flora IV
4.18
Rae Spordikool
4.18
Volta II / Arsenal
4.18
Keila
4.18
Joker
4.18
Kallaste United
4.18
Lootus JÃĪrve
4.18
Kohtla-JÃĪrve
4.50
Vana Hea Puur
5.00
Kristiine JK
5.00
Rumori Calcio
5.00
Flora III
6.00
Kose
6.00
Tallinna Kalev III
6.00
Vigri MaarjamÃĪe
7.00
Tallinna Wolves
8.00
Eston Villa
11.00
Olympic
11.00
Maardu Aliens
12.00
TransferWise
15.00
Kose II
26.00
Kuressaare is 0.17 goals better than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 0.67).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kuressaare or Drawâ Miss
55.2%
Avg Implied -
23%
32%
45%
covers Kuressaare + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare or Paideâ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied -
23%
32%
45%
covers Kuressaare + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Paideâ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied -
23%
32%
45%
covers Draw + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kuressaare, so a minus line means Kuressaare give that many goals of a start and Paide receive them. At -1, Kuressaare must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kuressaare win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kuressaare)Actual: Paide
Kuressaare -2
1.8%
Draw -2
5.9%
Paide +2
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kuressaare)Actual: Paide
Kuressaare -1
7.7%
Draw -1
15.4%
Paide +1
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kuressaare)Actual: Draw
Kuressaare +1
55.2%
Draw +1
24.1%
Paide -1
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kuressaare)Actual: Kuressaare
Kuressaare +2
79.2%
Draw +2
13.6%
Paide -2
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.57
0.86
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.83
0.00
0.60
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.72
0.89
1.00
1.11
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.88
0.53
0.62
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.92
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.44
1.09
0.45
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.64
0.86
0.44
1.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.67
0.80
1.60
0.00
1.71
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.72
0.56
0.44
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
1.06
0.35
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.58
1.33
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.39
0.91
0.27
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Draw or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +1 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare's squad is €2m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare's attack is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare's defence is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →