Paide are the clear favourites, with the model predicting an away win and giving the away side a 49% chance of triumph, a draw 26% and a home win 25%. The match is expected to see about 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 24%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.2% chance. Kuressaare, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average only 0.57 goals scored and concede 1.43, while Paide, on a two-game winning streak, averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against weaker opposition. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (92.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.2%), Away +2 handicap (89.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.6%) and Under 4.5 (83.1%). The model’s selection favours Paide’s victory, with the 1-1 scoreline the most likely outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kuressaare win
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kuressaare
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.29
1.50
1.62
1.44
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.73
0.62
1.50
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (14)
2.07
1.21
1.60
1.60
2.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.33
2.67
1.07
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.56
1.78
1.75
2.00
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
0.95
3.20
0.40
1.44
1.56
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
8.5%
0-2
8.4%
0-0
6.6%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
5.6%
2-2
5.6%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Paide goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
8.5%
8.4%
4.9%
2.1%
1
5.3%
12%
9.7%
5.6%
2.4%
2
3.7%
6.4%
5.6%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.4%
2.5%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Kuressaare is 1.11 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Kuressaare is 0.89 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Kuressaare is 0.24 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kuressaare or Draw
50.0%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
50%
covers Kuressaare + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare or Paide
74.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
50%
covers Kuressaare + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Paide
75.8%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
50%
covers Draw + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5
Over
82.4%
Under
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 3.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kuressaare, so a minus line means Kuressaare give that many goals of a start and Paide receive them. At -1, Kuressaare must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kuressaare win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare -2
3.1%
Draw -2
6.9%
Paide +2
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare -1
9.9%
Draw -1
14.2%
Paide +1
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare +1
50.0%
Draw +1
22.0%
Paide -1
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare +2
72.1%
Draw +2
15.6%
Paide -2
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.50
0.93
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.12
0.88
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
0.60
1.00
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.47
0.47
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.75
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.58
1.80
0.30
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.50
0.62
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.64
1.00
0.60
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
1.20
0.60
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.11
1.00
1.25
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.00
0.37
1.40
0.10
0.56
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Kuressaare's squad is €2m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Kuressaare's attack is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Kuressaare and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Kuressaare's defence is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€1m vs €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Nõmme United