The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 6.0 goals and a 56% chance of 6+ goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-3 in favour of Saku Sporting, a 5.4% probability. Kuressaare, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.62 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Saku Sporting, on a two-game winning streak, averages 6.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home. The favourite result is an away win, with a 33% chance of a home victory, a 17% draw probability, and a 50% chance of an away win. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 98.5%, Away over 0.5 goals at 96.3%, Over 2.5 at 94.0%, Home over 0.5 goals at 93.6%, BTTS Yes at 90.4%, Over 3.5 at 85.3%, Away over 1.5 goals at 84.1%, and Home or Away at 83.3%. These picks reflect the model’s confidence in a prolific, one-sided match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kuressaare win
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting win
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kuressaare
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.29
1.50
1.62
1.44
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.73
0.62
1.50
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (14)
2.07
1.21
1.60
1.60
2.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Saku Sporting) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saku Sporting
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.00
1.50
2.00
1.67
4.00
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (5)
3.60
1.20
2.00
1.67
6.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 6.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (56%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
98.5%
Under 1.5
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
94.0%
Under 2.5
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
85.3%
Under 3.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
90.4%
No
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-3
5.4%
3-3
4.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-2
4.5%
2-4
4.4%
3-4
4.1%
1-3
3.9%
1-2
3.6%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Saku Sporting goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.5%
0.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.2%
1
0.4%
2.4%
3.6%
3.9%
3.2%
2
0.9%
3.0%
4.9%
5.4%
4.4%
3
0.8%
2.7%
4.5%
4.9%
4.1%
4
0.6%
1.9%
3.1%
3.4%
2.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Saku Sporting goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.60
Vaprus
2.40
Paide
2.40
Tartu Welco
2.40
Trans Narva
2.40
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
Elva
2.25
Nõmme United
2.25
Keila
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Laagri
2.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Poseidon
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
Tammeka
2.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.80
Saue
1.50
Tallinna Wolves
1.50
Joker
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Hell Hunt
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Tulevik
1.50
Tamper
1.50
Flora II
1.50
Kristiine JK
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Kuressaare
1.50
Kalju Nomme
1.50
Rae Spordikool
1.33
Volta II / Arsenal
1.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
0.96
Lahte United
0.96
Nomme Utd U19
0.96
Rakvere FC Freedom
0.96
Jõgeva Wolves
0.96
Kummik
0.96
Elva III
0.96
Deliirium
0.96
Paide III
0.96
Generation Tallinn
0.96
Rumori Calcio II
0.96
Kena
0.96
Harju JK Laagri U21
0.96
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
0.96
Järva-Jaani
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Zealot Sporting
0.00
Kose
0.00
TalTech
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
Phoenix
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Tartu Kalev
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Kuressaare is 0.50 points worse than Saku Sporting in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Laagri
9.67
Tartu Welco
6.80
Tabasalu Ulasabat
6.50
Flora II
6.00
Vaprus
5.60
FC Tallinn
5.33
Flora Tallinn
4.80
Tammeka
4.67
Tallinna Wolves
4.50
Trans Narva
4.40
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
4.00
Kuressaare
4.00
Tallinna Kalev
3.25
Saue
3.00
Keila
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Viimsi
3.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
3.00
Kalju Nomme
3.00
Paide
2.80
Nõmme United
2.75
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Saku Sporting
2.67
Joker
2.50
Tamper
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.50
Elva
2.25
Tammeka Tartu U19
2.24
Lahte United
2.24
Nomme Utd U19
2.24
Rakvere FC Freedom
2.24
Jõgeva Wolves
2.24
Kummik
2.24
Elva III
2.24
Deliirium
2.24
Paide III
2.24
Generation Tallinn
2.24
Rumori Calcio II
2.24
Kena
2.24
Harju JK Laagri U21
2.24
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
2.24
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Team Helm
2.00
Rumori Calcio
2.00
Kristiine JK
2.00
Poseidon
1.67
Järva-Jaani
1.00
Flora III
1.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
TalTech
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Kalev
1.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Kuressaare is 1.33 goals better than Saku Sporting in terms of goals scored per game (4.00 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tallinna Kalev II
0.33
Laagri
0.33
Tartu Welco
0.40
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.60
Trans Narva
0.80
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.00
Paide
1.20
Elva
1.25
Nõmme United
1.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.33
Tammeka
1.33
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.33
Poseidon
2.33
Saue
2.50
Flora II
2.50
Viimsi
2.60
Hiiumaa
3.00
Helios
3.00
Legion
3.00
Tamper
3.00
Joker
3.50
Hell Hunt
3.50
Järva-Jaani
4.00
FC Kohvile
4.00
Keila
4.00
Tallinna Wolves
4.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
4.00
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Rumori Calcio
4.00
Kristiine JK
4.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
4.31
Lahte United
4.31
Nomme Utd U19
4.31
Rakvere FC Freedom
4.31
Jõgeva Wolves
4.31
Kummik
4.31
Elva III
4.31
Deliirium
4.31
Paide III
4.31
Generation Tallinn
4.31
Rumori Calcio II
4.31
Kena
4.31
Harju JK Laagri U21
4.31
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
4.31
Raplamaa
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
6.00
Soccernet
6.00
Phoenix
6.00
JK Tabasalu
6.00
Olympic
6.00
Tulevik
6.50
Zealot Sporting
7.00
Kose
7.00
TalTech
7.00
Team Helm
7.00
Welco X
8.00
Flora III
8.00
EstHam United
9.00
Kuusalu Kalev
16.00
TransferWise
26.00
Kuressaare is 1.00 goals better than Saku Sporting in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kuressaare or Draw
49.7%
Avg Implied -
33%
17%
50%
covers Kuressaare + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare or Saku Sporting
83.3%
Avg Implied -
33%
17%
50%
covers Kuressaare + Saku Sporting
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Saku Sporting
66.9%
Avg Implied -
33%
17%
50%
covers Draw + Saku Sporting
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5
Over
93.6%
Under
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 3.5
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 0.5
Over
96.3%
Under
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 1.5
Over
84.1%
Under
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 2.5
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 3.5
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kuressaare, so a minus line means Kuressaare give that many goals of a start and Saku Sporting receive them. At -1, Kuressaare must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kuressaare win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare -2
10.3%
Draw -2
9.4%
Saku Sporting +2
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare -1
19.7%
Draw -1
13.3%
Saku Sporting +1
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare +1
49.7%
Draw +1
16.0%
Saku Sporting -1
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare +2
65.7%
Draw +2
13.6%
Saku Sporting -2
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.50
0.93
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.12
0.88
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
0.60
1.00
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Saku Sporting) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saku Sporting
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
1.33
1.33
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.80
1.33
1.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.50
0.62
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.64
1.00
0.60
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Saku Sporting) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saku Sporting
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.50
0.67
0.33
3.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.60
0.40
0.67
0.33
5.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saku Sporting over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 1.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Nõmme United