Kuressaare are favoured to win, with a 47 % chance of taking the match, while a draw sits at 25 % and Tammeka’s odds of victory are 28 %. The model projects an average of 3.1 goals, yet the most likely total is two, a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6 % chance. Kuressaare, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average one goal scored and 1.5 conceded, whereas Tammeka, on the road, average 1.57 scored and 3.29 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Under 6.5 (96.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4 %), Under 5.5 (90.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (89.3 %), Home +2 handicap (87.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (85.0 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.3 %). Kuressaare’s recent form shows a loss followed by two wins, a draw and a loss, while Tammeka comes off a two-game winning streak. The match is likely to see a modest goal tally with Kuressaare edging the win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kuressaare win
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka win
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kuressaare
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.29
1.50
1.62
1.44
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.73
0.62
1.50
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (14)
2.07
1.21
1.60
1.60
2.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
2.00
3.29
1.21
1.50
2.69
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
2.67
1.40
1.80
0.71
3.29
vs Similar (18)
3.22
1.56
4.33
0.89
2.11
2.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.2%
Under 2.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.1%
1-0
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
0-0
4.9%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.7%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
1
5.9%
11%
7.5%
3.7%
1.4%
2
6.1%
9.0%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.6%
5.3%
3.9%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Kuressaare is 0.99 points worse than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Kuressaare is 0.51 goals worse than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Kuressaare is 0.21 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kuressaare or Draw
68.9%
Avg Implied -
44%
25%
31%
covers Kuressaare + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare or Tammeka
75.0%
Avg Implied -
44%
25%
31%
covers Kuressaare + Tammeka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tammeka
56.0%
Avg Implied -
44%
25%
31%
covers Draw + Tammeka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5
Over
53.1%
Under
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kuressaare, so a minus line means Kuressaare give that many goals of a start and Tammeka receive them. At -1, Kuressaare must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kuressaare win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare -2
10.6%
Draw -2
13.6%
Tammeka +2
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare -1
24.2%
Draw -1
19.8%
Tammeka +1
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare +1
68.9%
Draw +1
16.2%
Tammeka -1
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare +2
85.2%
Draw +2
9.3%
Tammeka -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.50
0.93
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.12
0.88
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
0.60
1.00
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.79
0.93
0.62
1.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.83
0.80
1.60
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.94
2.33
0.56
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.9%
Under 0.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
Under 1.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.4%
Under 2.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.50
0.62
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.64
1.00
0.60
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.50
0.29
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.60
0.20
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.61
2.00
0.33
1.22
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.2%
Under 0.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.1%
Under 1.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.7%
Under 2.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Kuressaare and Tammeka have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Kuressaare and Tammeka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Kuressaare and Tammeka have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Kuressaare and Tammeka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Nõmme United