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Kuressaare vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Date: 06/11/2022
Time: 12:30
Final 1-0
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Vs
69%
19%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Kuressaare win✓ Hit
69.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win✗ Miss
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W11D21W00D32W22D33D23L12L11DH·TRA27/08A·TAM30/08A·TAL04/09H·KAL10/09A·FC 18/09H·TAM01/10H·PAI09/10A·LEG14/10A·FLO22/10H·TAL29/10
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.431.621.311.001.57
vs Stronger (15)1.131.871.381.880.861.86
vs Similar (15)1.531.001.880.751.141.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-723L01L01L12L04L01L17L10W01L23LH·TAL26/08A·TRA30/08H·LEG04/09H·PAI10/09A·KAL16/09A·TAL01/10H·FLO09/10H·TRA15/10A·TAM22/10H·FC 29/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.631.072.200.733.07
vs Stronger (13)0.853.690.673.001.004.29
vs Similar (17)0.941.821.331.670.502.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %3% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
8.9%
3-0
8.4%
1-0 ✓
8.2%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
5.0%
0-0
4.6%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
01234
04.6%2.6%1.6%0.5%0.1%
18.2%8.9%3.7%1.1%0.3%
211%9.6%4.4%1.3%0.3%
38.4%7.6%3.4%1.0%0.2%
45.0%4.5%2.0%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.69
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Paide
1.81
Kalju Nomme
1.81
Elva
1.50
Kuressaare
1.39
Tammeka
1.08
Trans Narva
1.06
Tallinna Kalev
0.97
Legion
0.76
Vaprus
0.31
Kuressaare is 1.08 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 0.31).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.61
Paide
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.06
Kalju Nomme
1.64
Kuressaare
1.36
Trans Narva
1.19
Tallinna Kalev
1.17
Tammeka
1.06
Legion
0.97
Vaprus
0.89
Elva
0.50
Kuressaare is 0.47 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 0.89).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.58
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.69
Kalju Nomme
0.83
Paide
1.03
Kuressaare
1.42
Elva
1.50
Tammeka
1.58
Trans Narva
1.61
Legion
2.18
Tallinna Kalev
2.56
Vaprus
2.67
Kuressaare is 1.25 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 2.67).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D11D00D20W11D31W01L02L10WH·TRA27/08A·TAM30/08A·TAL04/09H·KAL10/09A·FC 18/09H·TAM01/10H·PAI09/10A·LEG14/10A·FLO22/10H·TAL29/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.631.000.440.570.86
vs Stronger (15)0.800.731.000.620.570.86
vs Similar (15)0.800.531.000.250.570.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D02L02L01L03L10W00D10WH·TAL26/08A·TRA30/08H·LEG04/09H·PAI10/09A·KAL16/09A·TAL01/10H·FLO09/10H·TRA15/10A·TAM22/10H·FC 29/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.170.470.930.331.40
vs Stronger (13)0.461.770.171.500.712.00
vs Similar (17)0.350.710.670.560.000.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W00D12L11D02L22D10W01LH·TRA27/08A·TAM30/08A·TAL04/09H·KAL10/09A·FC 18/09H·TAM01/10H·PAI09/10A·LEG14/10A·FLO22/10H·TAL29/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.620.880.430.71
vs Stronger (15)0.331.130.381.250.291.00
vs Similar (15)0.730.470.880.500.570.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L01L01L10W02L00D14L00D01L13LH·TAL26/08A·TRA30/08H·LEG04/09H·PAI10/09A·KAL16/09A·TAL01/10H·FLO09/10H·TRA15/10A·TAM22/10H·FC 29/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.470.601.270.401.67
vs Stronger (13)0.381.920.501.500.292.29
vs Similar (17)0.591.120.671.110.501.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare and Vaprus have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
KUR wins
0
Draws
1
VAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kuressaare vs Vaprus · H/A from KUR
DateH/AGameScore
06/08/22AVaprus Vs KUR0-1
06/05/22AVaprus Vs KUR3-1
03/04/22HKUR Vs Vaprus3-2

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22HKUR Vs Tallinna Kalev1-1
22/10/22AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR2-1
14/10/22ALegion Vs KUR3-2
09/10/22HKUR Vs Paide3-3
01/10/22HKUR Vs Tammeka2-2
18/09/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KUR2-3
10/09/22HKUR Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
04/09/22ATallinna Kalev Vs KUR1-2
30/08/22ATammeka Vs KUR1-1
27/08/22HKUR Vs Trans Narva3-1

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-3
22/10/22ATammeka Vs VAP1-0
15/10/22HVAP Vs Trans Narva1-0
09/10/22HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn1-7
01/10/22ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP1-0
16/09/22AKalju Nomme Vs VAP4-0
10/09/22HVAP Vs Paide1-2
04/09/22HVAP Vs Legion0-1
30/08/22ATrans Narva Vs VAP1-0
26/08/22HVAP Vs Tallinna Kalev2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLD1.35
HomeWDDDD1.59
AwayDWWLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%41%29%
AVG goals2.792.942.65
Over 1.5 %74%76%71%
Over 2.5 %56%59%53%
Over 3.5 %35%35%35%
Scored1.351.591.12
Conceded1.441.351.53
BTTS59%65%53%
Clean Sheet26%29%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.32
HomeLLLWL0.61
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %9%17%0%
AVG goals3.653.613.69
Over 1.5 %76%78%75%
Over 2.5 %65%61%69%
Over 3.5 %50%44%56%
Scored0.911.110.69
Conceded2.742.503.00
BTTS56%61%50%
Clean Sheet3%6%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3697
86%
2.7
9421+73
3.2
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.60.6
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
67%
2.2
7425+49
2.8
69%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.10.7
-
3PaidePaide3665
53%
1.8
8437+47
3.4
78%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.31.0
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3665
53%
1.8
5930+29
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.60.8
-
5KuressaareKuressaare3650
36%
1.4
4951-2
2.8
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.41.4
-
6TammekaTammeka3639
28%
1.1
3857-19
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
7Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
28%
1.1
4358-15
2.8
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.6
-
8Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3635
28%
1.0
4292-50
3.7
86%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
9LegionLegion3829
18%
0.8
3783-46
3.2
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
10VaprusVaprus3611
8%
0.3
3296-64
3.6
75%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.92.7
-
11ElvaElva23
50%
1.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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