Kyzyl-Zhar vs Aktobe Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026

Time: 14:00

Final 3-1

Kyzyl-Zhar

33%

27%

40%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Aktobe

Kazakhstan: Premier League

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Aktobe's recent draw against Atyrau has set the stage for their matchup against Kyzyl-Zhar. The model predicts an away win for Aktobe, with a 40% probability, making it the favourite match result. Conversely, the market suggests a 33% chance of a Kyzyl-Zhar win and a 27% draw probability.

The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. Kyzyl-Zhar's home form against stronger opponents is average, scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.2 goals on average. Aktobe, on the other hand, scores 2 goals away against weaker opponents and concedes 1 goal.

The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 80% probability and an 11% edge. However, this is not the only selection available, as the model also suggests a Kyzyl-Zhar win, with a 33% probability, and a draw, with a 27% probability. The home win percentage is 33%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 40%.

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Kyzyl-Zhar defeated Aktobe 3-1 at home, extending their run of recent form. The actual result was a home win, which contradicts the model's selection of an away win. The model had predicted an away win with a 40% probability, but its call was wrong. The model's selection was correct in suggesting the over 1.5 total goals, which hit with a probability of 79.6%. The model also correctly identified the most likely total goals as 2, but the actual score was 3-1.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kyzyl-Zhar win✓ Hit

33.2%

Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.17

Edge

+4.7%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

3.38

Pinnacle

3.31

Betano

3.25

Betfair

3.25

Marathonbet

3.24

Draw✗ Miss

27.0%

Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.13

Edge

-1.9%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

3.28

Pinnacle

3.20

10Bet

3.20

Bet365

3.20

Superbet

3.15

Aktobe win✗ Miss

39.7%

Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.13

Edge

-2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

2.20

Superbet

2.17

1xBet

2.16

Unibet

2.16

Betano

2.15

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kyzyl-Zhar

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.9

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

1.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.17	1.20	1.36	1.29	1.00	1.12
vs Stronger (14)	0.79	1.43	0.71	1.14	0.86	1.71
vs Similar (16)	1.50	1.00	2.00	1.43	1.11	0.67
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	17% (-11pp vs league)

This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aktobe

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.7

Avg scored

1.9

Avg conceded

1.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.50	1.27	1.40	0.93	1.60	1.60
vs Stronger (2)	1.00	2.50	2.00	1.00	0.00	4.00
vs Similar (14)	1.07	1.43	1.00	1.00	1.17	2.00
vs Weaker (14)	2.00	0.93	1.83	0.83	2.12	1.00
Clean sheet %	27% (-1pp vs league)

This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

79.6%

@ 1.34+11.3%

Under 1.5

20.4%

@ 2.89-11.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Unibet

1.37

10Bet

1.36

Pinnacle

1.36

Betano

1.35

Betfair

1.33

Under

Betfair

3.00

10Bet

3.00

Pinnacle

2.95

Superbet

2.90

Marathonbet

2.88

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

55.3%

@ 2.11+11.3%

Under 2.5

44.7%

@ 1.66-11.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.16

Bet365

2.15

1xBet

2.14

Unibet

2.14

Marathonbet

2.11

Under

10Bet

1.70

1xBet

1.68

Bet365

1.67

Pinnacle

1.66

Superbet

1.66

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

33.0%

@ 3.71+8.3%

Under 3.5

67.0%

@ 1.21-8.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

4.00

Unibet

3.85

1xBet

3.82

Marathonbet

3.82

10Bet

3.70

Under

10Bet

1.25

Betano

1.24

Superbet

1.22

Unibet

1.21

Betfair

1.20

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

59.6%

@ 1.82+9.4%

40.4%

@ 1.84-9.4%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

1xBet

1.85

William Hil

1.85

Marathonbet

1.85

Superbet

1.83

Unibet

1.82

Betfair

1.91

Superbet

1.87

10Bet

1.85

William Hil

1.85

1xBet

1.84

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

12.7%@ 5.39+5.0%

1-2

8.8%@ 8.06+3.6%

2-1

7.9%@ 9.98+3.8%

0-1

7.2%@ 5.94+0.2%

0-0

6.7%@ 7.74+1.3%

1-0

6.4%@ 7.65+1.0%

0-2

6.4%@ 8.63+1.6%

2-2

6.0%@ 12.73+2.8%

Kyzyl-Zhar goals ↓

	Aktobe goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	7.2%	6.4%	3.2%	1.2%
1	6.4%	13%	8.8%	4.5%	1.7%
2	5.2%	7.9%	6.0%	3.1%	1.2%
3	2.4%	3.6%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%
4	0.8%	1.3%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kyzyl-Zhar goals (down), columns = Aktobe goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Kairat Almaty

2.27

FC Astana

2.19

FK Tobol Kostanay

2.08

Yelimay Semey

1.85

Aktobe

1.65

Zhenys

1.38

Ordabasy

1.35

Irtysh

1.33

Kaspiy

1.32

Altay (Kazakhstan)

1.27

Okzhetpes

1.23

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.04

Zhetysu

0.92

Ulytau

0.88

Kaisar

0.85

Atyrau

0.73

Kyzyl-Zhar is 0.62 points worse than Aktobe in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.65).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

FC Astana

2.54

Kairat Almaty

2.04

Yelimay Semey

1.81

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.73

Aktobe

1.50

Ordabasy

1.42

Zhenys

1.42

Okzhetpes

1.35

Irtysh

1.33

Kaspiy

1.32

Altay (Kazakhstan)

1.27

Kyzyl-Zhar

0.96

Kaisar

0.92

Atyrau

0.85

Zhetysu

0.81

Ulytau

0.77

Kyzyl-Zhar is 0.54 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Kairat Almaty

0.73

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.96

Ordabasy

1.08

Aktobe

1.12

FC Astana

1.15

Zhenys

1.15

Yelimay Semey

1.19

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.23

Irtysh

1.39

Kaspiy

1.41

Altay (Kazakhstan)

1.46

Zhetysu

1.58

Ulytau

1.58

Kaisar

1.62

Atyrau

1.73

Okzhetpes

1.73

Kyzyl-Zhar is 0.12 goals worse than Aktobe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Kyzyl-Zhar

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Aktobe

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

For 2.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 2.0

🟨 Cards

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Kyzyl-Zhar

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (24)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Similar (26)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aktobe

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.1	0.1	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (2)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Similar (24)	-	-	-	0.2	0.2	0.1	-	-	-
vs Weaker (24)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game

Okzhetpes

13.0

Kairat Almaty

10.3

Aktobe

9.5

FK Tobol Kostanay

9.3

FC Astana

8.8

Kyzyl-Zhar

8.5

Ordabasy

8.3

Zhetysu

6.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game

Zhetysu

6.1

FK Tobol Kostanay

5.6

Ordabasy

5.1

Aktobe

5.1

Kaisar

5.0

Kairat Almaty

4.0

FC Astana

4.0

Kyzyl-Zhar

3.2

Okzhetpes

2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game

FK Tobol Kostanay

30.1

Ordabasy

30.0

Aktobe

27.0

Kairat Almaty

26.3

FC Astana

23.5

Corners O/U 9.5

Over 9.5

0.0%

Under 9.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.19

Marathonbet

2.19

Under

1xBet

1.57

Marathonbet

1.54

Cards O/U 3.5

Over 3.5

0.0%

Under 3.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Fouls O/U 21.5

Over 21.5

0.0%

Under 21.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	79.6%	1.34	Unibet 1.37	10Bet 1.36	Pinnacle 1.36	Betano 1.35	Betfair 1.33	+11.3%	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

FTK (21)

€11m

ORD (22)

€10m

AKT (25)

€10m

KA (22)

€8m

FA (19)

€8m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

AKT (12)

€5m

FTK (6)

€4m

KA (7)

€3m

ORD (8)

€3m

FA (6)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ORD (4)

€3m

FTK (5)

€3m

FA (3)

€2m

KA (5)

€2m

AKT (4)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ORD (10)

€4m

FA (10)

€4m

FTK (10)

€4m

KA (10)

€3m

AKT (9)

€3m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Kyzyl-Zhar vs Aktobe · H/A from KYZ

Date	H/A	Game	Score
27/09/25	A	Aktobe Vs KYZ	1-0
14/06/25	H	KYZ Vs Aktobe	1-1
28/07/24	A	Aktobe Vs KYZ	2-0
12/05/24	H	KYZ Vs Aktobe	0-2
23/09/23	H	KYZ Vs Aktobe	0-0
02/04/23	A	Aktobe Vs KYZ	1-3
05/09/22	A	Aktobe Vs KYZ	1-0
16/04/22	H	KYZ Vs Aktobe	1-1

Kyzyl-Zhar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/07/26	A	Zhetysu Vs KYZ	1-2
26/10/25	A	Zhetysu Vs KYZ	0-1
17/10/25	H	KYZ Vs Kairat Almaty	0-1
27/09/25	A	Aktobe Vs KYZ	1-0
13/09/25	H	KYZ Vs Okzhetpes	3-1
23/08/25	A	Yelimay Semey Vs KYZ	2-0
16/08/25	H	KYZ Vs Zhenys	1-1
09/08/25	A	Ulytau Vs KYZ	1-1
02/08/25	H	KYZ Vs FK Tobol Kostanay	0-2
26/07/25	A	Kaisar Vs KYZ	1-0

Aktobe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/07/26	H	AKT Vs Okzhetpes	2-1
19/07/26	A	Altay (Kazakhstan) Vs AKT	2-4
26/10/25	H	AKT Vs Ordabasy	2-2
19/10/25	A	FC Astana Vs AKT	5-3
27/09/25	H	AKT Vs Kyzyl-Zhar	1-0
20/09/25	A	Ulytau Vs AKT	2-1
14/09/25	A	Kairat Almaty Vs AKT	1-0
24/08/25	H	AKT Vs Zhetysu	3-2
17/08/25	H	AKT Vs Okzhetpes	2-1
10/08/25	A	Yelimay Semey Vs AKT	2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Kyzyl-Zhar

Kazakhstan: Premier League

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLLWW	1.18
Home	LLDWL	1.24
Away	DLLWW	1.12

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	30%	32%	28%
AVG goals	2.24	2.36	2.12
Over 1.5 %	66%	68%	64%
Over 2.5 %	36%	32%	40%
Over 3.5 %	14%	20%	8%
Scored	1.10	1.24	0.96
Conceded	1.14	1.12	1.16
BTTS	48%	48%	48%
Clean Sheet	20%	16%	24%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Aktobe

Kazakhstan: Premier League

Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLDWW	1.66
Home	WWWDW	1.92
Away	LLLLW	1.40

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	50%	60%	40%
AVG goals	2.74	2.52	2.96
Over 1.5 %	74%	68%	80%
Over 2.5 %	54%	48%	60%
Over 3.5 %	26%	20%	32%
Scored	1.50	1.52	1.48
Conceded	1.24	1.00	1.48
BTTS	52%	48%	56%
Clean Sheet	28%	36%	20%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	2.00	3.00	1.00

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Ordabasy	5	12	80%	2.4	13	4	+9	3.4	100%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	3	3	4	2.6	0.8	-
2	FC Astana	4	10	75%	2.5	9	3	+6	3.0	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	8	1	2	4	2.2	0.8	-
3	Aktobe	5	10	60%	2.0	10	8	+2	3.6	100%	80%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	5	2	3	2.0	1.6	-
4	Kairat Almaty	3	9	100%	3.0	8	3	+5	3.7	100%	100%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	8	3	2	3	2.7	1.0	-
5	Kyzyl-Zhar	4	8	50%	2.0	8	5	+3	3.2	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.2	-
6	Okzhetpes	4	6	50%	1.5	8	5	+3	3.2	100%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.2	-
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	3	6	67%	2.0	3	2	+1	1.7	67%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	11	4	3	4	1.0	0.7	-
8	Kaspiy	5	6	20%	1.2	9	9	+0	3.6	100%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.8	-
9	Yelimay Semey	5	6	20%	1.2	7	7	+0	2.8	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.4	-
10	Irtysh	4	6	50%	1.5	6	8	-2	3.5	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	2.0	-
11	Zhenys	3	4	33%	1.3	6	4	+2	3.3	67%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.3	-
12	Kaisar	3	2	0%	0.7	3	4	-1	2.3	100%	33%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.3	-
13	Atyrau	5	2	0%	0.4	3	8	-5	2.2	80%	20%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.6	1.6	-
14	Ulytau	4	1	0%	0.2	3	8	-5	2.8	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	2.0	-
15	Zhetysu	4	1	0%	0.2	3	11	-8	3.5	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	2.8	-
16	Altay (Kazakhstan)	5	1	0%	0.2	7	17	-10	4.8	100%	100%	100%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	3.4	-

Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches

Kyzyl-Zhar vs Aktobe Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kyzyl-Zhar

Aktobe

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Kyzyl-Zhar

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Aktobe

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Kyzyl-Zhar

Aktobe

🚩 Total Corners

🟨 Total Cards

⚠️ Total Fouls

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Kyzyl-Zhar

Aktobe

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature