Kyzyl-Zhar are tipped to win, with the model picking a home victory as the most likely outcome. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.1 % chance. In recent fixtures Kyzyl-Zhar have drawn their last game 1-1 against FC Astana and are coming off a draw, while Kaisar have lost their previous two matches 2-3 to Zhenys. Home side Kyzyl-Zhar typically score 1.5 goals and concede 1.0 against opponents of similar strength, whereas Kaisar, on the road, average 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded against comparable teams. The probability of a home win is 49 %, a draw 27 %, and an away win 24 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8 %), Under 5.5 (94.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (91.1 %), Home +2 handicap (90.7 %), and Under 4.5 (87.2 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kyzyl-Zhar win
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kyzyl-Zhar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
0.92
0.85
0.94
1.29
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
1.12
0.67
0.78
0.71
1.57
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.07
1.50
1.00
1.10
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.25
1.19
1.21
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
1.93
1.12
1.38
0.83
2.67
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.40
1.38
1.00
1.43
1.86
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.5%
Kyzyl-Zhar goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
5.5%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.9%
12%
6.4%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.6%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.9%
5.5%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.1%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kyzyl-Zhar goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Kyzyl-Zhar is 1.20 points better than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Kyzyl-Zhar is 0.20 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Kyzyl-Zhar is 0.40 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kyzyl-Zhar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaisar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kyzyl-Zhar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kyzyl-Zhar or Draw
76.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
24%
covers Kyzyl-Zhar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar or Kaisar
73.8%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
24%
covers Kyzyl-Zhar + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kaisar
50.2%
Avg Implied -
50%
26%
24%
covers Draw + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 0.5
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 1.5
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 2.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kyzyl-Zhar, so a minus line means Kyzyl-Zhar give that many goals of a start and Kaisar receive them. At -1, Kyzyl-Zhar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kyzyl-Zhar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kyzyl-Zhar)
Kyzyl-Zhar -2
12.0%
Draw -2
15.5%
Kaisar +2
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kyzyl-Zhar)
Kyzyl-Zhar -1
27.6%
Draw -1
22.2%
Kaisar +1
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kyzyl-Zhar)
Kyzyl-Zhar +1
76.0%
Draw +1
14.3%
Kaisar -1
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kyzyl-Zhar)
Kyzyl-Zhar +2
90.3%
Draw +2
6.8%
Kaisar -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kyzyl-Zhar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.38
0.54
0.29
0.65
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.62
0.22
0.44
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.75
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.69
0.38
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.87
0.62
0.50
0.57
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kyzyl-Zhar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.54
0.31
0.65
0.65
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.50
0.44
0.33
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.56
0.81
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.21
0.38
1.12
0.50
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kyzyl-Zhar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kyzyl-Zhar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Kyzyl-Zhar and Kaisar have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Kyzyl-Zhar and Kaisar have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Kyzyl-Zhar and Kaisar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Kyzyl-Zhar and Kaisar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →