Laagri’s recent form shows a 2-game winning streak, yet their home average of 1.14 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger opposition suggests a fragile defence. FC Levadia Tallinn, on the other hand, have been on a four-game winning run away from home, averaging 3.0 goals scored and only 0.71 conceded against weaker opponents. These statistics explain why the model rates an away win at 66%, the highest probability, and identifies it as the favourite outcome. The expected total of 3.5 goals aligns with the model’s 22% chance of exactly three goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Levadia, with a 9.6% probability. Home win probability sits at 15%, draw at 20%, and away win at 66%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 87.2% chance, reflecting the high scoring potential of both sides. These figures paint a clear picture: Levadia’s potent attack and Laagri’s defensive frailties make an away victory the most probable result.
Results analysis
Laagri’s 2-game winning streak was halted as FC Levadia Tallinn, riding a four-game winning run, forced a 2-2 draw. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was backed by a 66% probability, but the model’s pick was wrong. The model also selected Over 1.5, a 87.2% call that hit. The match ended in a draw, with the final score 2-2. The most likely total was 3 goals at 22%, yet the game produced only four. Laagri’s home form, noted as a 2-game winning run, was eclipsed by Levadia’s dominant away performance, which averaged three goals scored and less than one conceded.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laagri win✗ Miss
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn win✗ Miss
65.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.93
1.53
1.53
1.27
2.33
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
2.29
1.14
2.00
0.57
2.57
vs Similar (16)
1.88
1.62
1.88
1.12
1.88
2.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.07
1.94
1.06
2.29
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.36
1.14
1.29
1.57
1.43
vs Weaker (16)
2.75
0.81
2.56
0.89
3.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.8%
Under 2.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.6%
0-2
8.8%
1-1
8.7%
1-3
7.7%
0-3
7.1%
0-1
6.5%
2-2 ✓
5.2%
1-4
4.6%
Laagri goals ↓
FC Levadia Tallinn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
6.5%
8.8%
7.1%
4.3%
1
2.5%
8.7%
9.6%
7.7%
4.6%
2
1.8%
4.3%
5.2%
4.2%
2.5%
3
0.6%
1.6%
1.9%
1.5%
0.9%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Laagri is 1.19 points worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Laagri is 1.11 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 2.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Laagri is 0.94 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.94 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.10
0.60
0.67
0.60
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.21
0.43
0.86
0.29
1.57
vs Similar (16)
0.81
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.88
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.47
1.00
0.44
1.29
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.57
0.86
0.43
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
0.38
1.11
0.44
2.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.93
0.87
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.07
0.71
1.14
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.62
1.12
0.62
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
0.94
0.62
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.79
0.29
0.86
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.44
1.44
0.44
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Laagri's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Laagri's attack is €1m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Laagri and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Laagri's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€1m vs €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Trans Narva
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Tammeka
Tallinna Kalev
Viimsi