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Laagri vs FC Levadia Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 16/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-2
Laagri
Laagri
Vs
26%
23%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

In the upcoming Estonia: Meistriliiga match between Laagri and FC Levadia Tallinn, recent form suggests FC Levadia Tallinn is coming off a win while Laagri suffered two straight defeats. This narrative is set to unfold in a high-scoring encounter, as the expected total goals stands at 3.5, with the most likely total goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 9.9%. Laagri's home scoring has averaged 1.75 goals, but they have conceded 2 on average against stronger opponents. Conversely, FC Levadia Tallinn has scored 2.9 goals on average away from home against weaker opponents, while conceding only 1. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 87.2%. The model's favoured match result is an away win for FC Levadia Tallinn. Laagri has a 26% chance of winning at home, a 23% chance of drawing, and FC Levadia Tallinn has a 51% chance of winning away. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 (87.2%), with no other picks provided.

Results analysis

Laagri's win extends their recent run of mixed results, having previously suffered three straight defeats. The final score of 1-2 was the actual result, confirming the away win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, FC Levadia Tallinn, to win with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's selection of an away win was correct.

The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 87.2%. The model's selection of the most likely total goals of 3 did not come in, with a probability of 22%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Laagri win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 10.6% · @ 8.51
Edge
+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
9.55
10Bet
9.25
Marathonbet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
William Hil
9.00
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 16.4% · @ 5.47
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.06
Betfair
6.00
Dafabet
5.80
Unibet
5.75
1xBet
5.70
FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
51.2%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.23
Edge
-21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
Dafabet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L22D10W41W22D12L30W52W01L23LH·KAL19/10H·TAM22/10H·TRA25/10H·TAL02/11H·FC 08/11A·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07A·FLO02/08A·KUR07/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.871.871.531.202.20
vs Stronger (14)1.212.001.752.000.502.00
vs Similar (16)1.811.752.001.001.672.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W30W12L31W40W22D12L31W11D50WH·TAM05/10A·KUR18/10H·PAI22/10A·VAP26/10A·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06A·TRA04/07A·VAP02/08H·NÕM09/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.271.102.061.002.501.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.381.461.001.431.831.50
vs Weaker (17)2.940.822.890.673.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
@ 1.08+2.5%
Under 1.5
12.8%
@ 5.94-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Under
888Sport
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
5.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.6%
@ 1.31-1.6%
Under 2.5
32.4%
@ 2.96+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
888Sport
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.0%
@ 1.85-3.7%
Under 3.5
54.0%
@ 1.83+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.87
Under
Unibet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Betfair
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.2%
@ 1.65+11.8%
No
32.8%
@ 2.05-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.65
No
Unibet
2.17
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.05

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%@ 10.53+5.9%
1-2 ✓
9.3%@ 7.85+3.9%
2-2
6.6%@ 15.75+3.9%
0-2
6.5%@ 7.30+0.7%
2-1
6.4%@ 22.90+4.6%
1-3
6.3%@ 8.81+1.6%
0-1
5.4%@ 9.59+1.0%
2-3
4.5%@ 16.72+2.0%
Laagri goals ↓
FC Levadia Tallinn goals →
01234
04.0%5.4%6.5%4.4%2.3%
13.5%9.9%9.3%6.3%3.3%
23.1%6.4%6.6%4.5%2.3%
31.5%3.1%3.2%2.2%1.1%
40.5%1.1%1.1%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Tammeka
2.14
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.50
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Laagri is 0.79 points worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Vaprus
1.62
Flora Tallinn
1.62
Tammeka
1.57
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Laagri is 0.84 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 2.71).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.50
Kuressaare
1.67
Tammeka
1.71
Vaprus
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Laagri is 0.38 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Laagri or Draw✗ Miss
48.8%
Avg Implied -
26%
23%
51%
covers Laagri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri or FC Levadia Tallinn✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied -
26%
23%
51%
covers Laagri + FC Levadia Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Levadia Tallinn✓ Hit
74.3%
Avg Implied -
26%
23%
51%
covers Draw + FC Levadia Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LaagriLaagri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W20W10W10W01L12L20W51W00D01LH·KAL19/10H·TAM22/10H·TRA25/10H·TAL02/11H·FC 08/11A·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07A·FLO02/08A·KUR07/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.001.070.670.531.33
vs Stronger (14)0.640.931.000.880.171.00
vs Similar (16)0.941.061.140.430.781.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W11D30W30W10W10W20W01L30WH·TAM05/10A·KUR18/10H·PAI22/10A·VAP26/10A·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06A·TRA04/07A·VAP02/08H·NÕM09/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.431.120.381.360.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.710.430.670.67
vs Weaker (17)1.650.351.440.331.880.38
Clean sheet %70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LaagriLaagri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L00D31W21W00D10W01L01L22DH·KAL19/10H·TAM22/10H·TRA25/10H·TAL02/11H·FC 08/11A·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07A·FLO02/08A·KUR07/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.870.800.870.670.87
vs Stronger (14)0.571.070.751.120.331.00
vs Similar (16)0.880.690.860.570.890.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L01L10W12L02L11D10W20WH·TAM05/10A·KUR18/10H·PAI22/10A·VAP26/10A·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06A·TRA04/07A·VAP02/08H·NÕM09/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.670.940.621.140.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.920.291.001.170.83
vs Weaker (17)1.290.471.440.331.120.62
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.2%1.08
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+2.5%✓ Hit
Home or Away76.9%-------✓ Hit
Draw or Away74.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Laagri's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Laagri's attack is €1m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Laagri and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Laagri's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
LAA wins
2
Draws
5
FLT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Laagri vs FC Levadia Tallinn · H/A from LAA
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-2
19/07/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs LAA3-0
31/05/25HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
28/02/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs LAA5-0
26/09/23HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
12/08/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs LAA1-1
06/05/23HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-1
15/04/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs LAA6-1

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26AKuressaare Vs LAA3-2
02/08/26AFlora Tallinn Vs LAA1-0
19/07/26HLAA Vs Paide5-2
10/07/26HLAA Vs Trans Narva3-0
05/07/26ATammeka Vs LAA2-1
08/11/25HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-2
02/11/25HLAA Vs Tallinna Kalev4-1
25/10/25HLAA Vs Trans Narva1-0
22/10/25HLAA Vs Tammeka2-2
19/10/25HLAA Vs Kalju Nomme1-3

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/26HFLT Vs Nõmme United5-0
02/08/26AVaprus Vs FLT1-1
04/07/26ATrans Narva Vs FLT1-3
28/06/26HFLT Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
08/11/25ALaagri Vs FLT2-2
02/11/25ATrans Narva Vs FLT0-4
26/10/25AVaprus Vs FLT1-3
22/10/25HFLT Vs Paide1-2
18/10/25AKuressaare Vs FLT0-3
05/10/25HFLT Vs Tammeka3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.24
HomeWWDWW1.52
AwayLWLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals3.503.363.64
Over 1.5 %86%80%92%
Over 2.5 %76%72%80%
Over 3.5 %48%40%56%
Scored1.742.001.48
Conceded1.761.362.16
BTTS62%56%68%
Clean Sheet16%28%4%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW1.98
HomeWWLLW2.04
AwayWWDWD1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%64%60%
AVG goals3.323.163.48
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %76%76%76%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored2.262.202.32
Conceded1.060.961.16
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2TammekaTammeka715
71%
2.1
1112-1
3.3
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.7
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
4PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
5LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
6Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn812
50%
1.5
1312+1
3.1
88%
88%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.5
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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