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Laagri vs Kalju Nomme Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2023
Time: 11:30
Final 1-0
Laagri
Laagri
Vs
23%
30%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Laagri win✓ Hit
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme win✗ Miss
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W01L01L11D02L02L04L12L31W01LH·TAM09/07A·KAL22/07H·PAI06/08A·FC 12/08H·TRA18/08A·FLO25/08H·VAP02/09A·TAL16/09A·TRA23/09H·FC 26/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.730.801.601.001.87
vs Stronger (14)0.791.860.501.171.002.38
vs Similar (16)1.001.621.001.891.001.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L10W40W11D33D41W02L00D41W20WA·FC 09/07H·LAA22/07H·TRA05/08A·TAM13/08A·VAP19/08H·KUR27/08A·PAI03/09H·FLO17/09H·TAM23/09A·KUR26/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.031.670.871.201.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.561.560.751.000.402.00
vs Weaker (21)1.810.812.000.821.600.80
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
13.0%
0-0
11.8%
0-2
9.7%
1-2
8.7%
1-0 ✓
8.1%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
4.4%
Laagri goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
01234
012%13%9.7%4.4%1.5%
18.1%14%8.7%3.9%1.3%
24.2%5.7%3.9%1.8%0.6%
31.3%1.7%1.2%0.5%0.2%
40.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Laagri is 0.72 points worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (0.64 vs 1.36).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Laagri is 0.64 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.39).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Laagri is 0.53 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.17).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LaagriLaagri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D00D01L00D02L10W10W00DH·TAM09/07A·KAL22/07H·PAI06/08A·FC 12/08H·TRA18/08A·FLO25/08H·VAP02/09A·TAL16/09A·TRA23/09H·FC 26/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.700.400.670.270.73
vs Stronger (14)0.070.860.000.330.121.25
vs Similar (16)0.560.560.670.890.430.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W20W01L20W21W01L00D11D10WA·FC 09/07H·LAA22/07H·TRA05/08A·TAM13/08A·VAP19/08H·KUR27/08A·PAI03/09H·FLO17/09H·TAM23/09A·KUR26/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.370.930.130.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.330.780.500.000.201.40
vs Weaker (21)0.950.191.090.180.800.20
Clean sheet %73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LaagriLaagri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D01L11D01L02L02L02L21W01LH·TAM09/07A·KAL22/07H·PAI06/08A·FC 12/08H·TRA18/08A·FLO25/08H·VAP02/09A·TAL16/09A·TRA23/09H·FC 26/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.030.400.930.731.13
vs Stronger (14)0.711.000.500.830.881.12
vs Similar (16)0.441.060.331.000.571.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D20W10W13L20W01L00D30W10WA·FC 09/07H·LAA22/07H·TRA05/08A·TAM13/08A·VAP19/08H·KUR27/08A·PAI03/09H·FLO17/09H·TAM23/09A·KUR26/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.670.730.730.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.220.780.251.000.200.60
vs Weaker (21)0.860.620.910.640.800.60
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Laagri's squad is €2m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Laagri and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Laagri and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Laagri's defence is €1m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€1m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
LAA wins
1
Draws
2
KN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Laagri vs Kalju Nomme · H/A from LAA
DateH/AGameScore
22/07/23AKalju Nomme Vs LAA1-0
12/05/23AKalju Nomme Vs LAA1-1
19/03/23HLAA Vs Kalju Nomme1-2

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/23HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
23/09/23ATrans Narva Vs LAA1-3
16/09/23ATallinna Kalev Vs LAA2-1
02/09/23HLAA Vs Vaprus0-4
25/08/23AFlora Tallinn Vs LAA2-0
18/08/23HLAA Vs Trans Narva0-2
12/08/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs LAA1-1
06/08/23HLAA Vs Paide0-1
22/07/23AKalju Nomme Vs LAA1-0
09/07/23HLAA Vs Tammeka3-0

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/23AKuressaare Vs KN0-2
23/09/23HKN Vs Tammeka4-1
17/09/23HKN Vs Flora Tallinn0-0
03/09/23APaide Vs KN2-0
27/08/23HKN Vs Kuressaare4-1
19/08/23AVaprus Vs KN3-3
13/08/23ATammeka Vs KN1-1
05/08/23HKN Vs Trans Narva4-0
22/07/23HKN Vs Laagri1-0
09/07/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KN3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.30
HomeWLLLL1.40
AwayLDLLW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals3.042.883.20
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.521.601.44
Conceded1.521.281.76
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWW1.48
HomeWWWDW1.75
AwayLDDLW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%31%
AVG goals2.402.582.23
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %18%29%8%
Scored1.421.791.08
Conceded0.980.791.15
BTTS42%50%35%
Clean Sheet40%42%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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