Laagri vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

Laagri faces Kuressaare with the model favouring an away win. The odds lean 48% for Kuressaare, 27% for a draw and 26% for Laagri, reflecting the stronger away form of Kuressaare who average 1.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on the road against similar opposition, while Laagri at home average 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderate scoring game, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.7% chance, matching the final outcome. Laagri’s recent five games show a 2-game winning streak, but the last match ended 2-1 against Nõmme United, whereas Kuressaare’s last five include a draw and a 2-2 tie with Vaprus. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 78.3%. These figures capture the match’s shape and the key probabilities.

The pre-match favourite, Kuressaare, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. Laagri’s 2-game winning run was halted, while Kuressaare, coming off a draw, could not secure the victory the model had predicted with a 48% probability. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals proved correct, hitting the 78.3% probability threshold. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely score of 1-1, which held a 12.7% chance. The expected total of 2.8 goals was surpassed, but the 2-goal outcome was only a 25% probability. The prediction model’s favourite was wrong, yet its Over 1.5 pick hit.