Laagri vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with Kuressaare expected to edge Laagri 43% to 27% for home and 30% for a draw. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.1% chance. Laagri, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, while Kuressaare on the road averages 1.56 scored and 1.0 conceded versus similar opposition. The suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 77.6% probability and Over 1.5 with 70.7%. The recent form notes that Laagri is on a two-game winning streak after a 2-1 win over Nõmme United, whereas Kuressaare is coming off a draw, 2-2 with Vaprus. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every selection is listed with its chance.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Away win, did not materialise. Laagri and Kuressaare finished 1-1, a draw that extended Laagri’s two-game winning run and left Kuressaare coming off a draw. The model had tipped an away victory with a 43% chance, but the result proved wrong. Its other selections were solid: Under 3.5 goals hit at 77.6% and Over 1.5 goals hit at 70.7%. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, with a 14.1% probability, and the expected total of 2.4 goals was close to the 2-goal outcome. Overall, the model’s prediction missed the actual result, though its over/under picks were accurate.