Laagri are the clear favourites, with a 58% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Kuressaare win. The model expects an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.2% chance, reflecting the balanced attacking output of both sides.
At home Laagri usually score two goals and concede one against similarly strong opposition, while Kuressaare on the road averages one goal scored and 1.44 conceded. Laagri’s recent form, a two-game winning streak, and a 2-1 win over Nõmme United, give them a slight edge, whereas Kuressaare return from a draw, 2-2 against Vaprus, shows they are still finding consistency.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Home +2 handicap (92.9%), Under 5.5 (91.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.5%) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.8%). Each selection carries its own probability, and no other outcome is presented.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laagri win
57.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare win
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.77
1.47
3.67
1.22
1.42
1.83
vs Stronger (13)
1.54
1.85
2.11
1.67
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (16)
2.31
1.25
2.62
0.88
2.00
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
26.00
0.00
26.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kuressaare
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.29
1.50
1.62
1.44
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.73
0.62
1.50
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (14)
2.07
1.21
1.60
1.60
2.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.6%
Under 2.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.2%
Under 3.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-0
8.8%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
1-2
5.3%
Laagri goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.2%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.8%
11%
5.3%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.2%
6.5%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.0%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Laagri is 0.61 points better than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Laagri is 0.76 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Laagri is 0.29 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Laagri or Draw
81.3%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
19%
covers Laagri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri or Kuressaare
76.3%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
19%
covers Laagri + Kuressaare
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kuressaare
42.5%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
19%
covers Draw + Kuressaare
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Laagri over/under 0.5
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 3.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Laagri, so a minus line means Laagri give that many goals of a start and Kuressaare receive them. At -1, Laagri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Laagri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Laagri)
Laagri -2
16.9%
Draw -2
17.9%
Kuressaare +2
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Laagri)
Laagri -1
34.8%
Draw -1
22.7%
Kuressaare +1
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Laagri)
Laagri +1
81.3%
Draw +1
11.6%
Kuressaare -1
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Laagri)
Laagri +2
92.9%
Draw +2
5.1%
Kuressaare -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.73
1.83
0.50
0.75
1.08
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.92
1.22
0.78
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.62
1.25
0.25
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
12.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kuressaare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.50
0.93
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.12
0.88
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
0.60
1.00
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.83
0.72
0.67
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.89
0.89
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.62
1.38
0.62
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
14.00
0.00
14.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kuressaare
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.50
0.62
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.64
1.00
0.60
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Laagri and Kuressaare have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Laagri and Kuressaare have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Laagri and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Laagri and Kuressaare have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Nõmme United