This highly anticipated match between Laagri and Paide in the Estonia: Meistriliiga is finely balanced, with the recent form of both teams telling a compelling story. Laagri suffered 2 straight defeats, including a 2-3 loss to Kuressaare, while Paide is coming off a win, having defeated Kuressaare 1-0. This sets the stage for a closely contested encounter.
The model predicts an away win for Paide, with a 37% chance of victory. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, while the most likely score is 1-1, occurring 13.2% of the time. Laagri has a strong home record, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per match, while Paide has been solid on the road, scoring 1.14 goals and conceding 2.0.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 77.5% probability of success. The suggested picks also include the Over 1.5, which is expected to hit, along with Home win (35%), Draw (28%), and Away win (37%). The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 13.2% of the time.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Laagri defeated Paide 5-2, extending their recent run of inconsistent form. The win breaks a two-match losing streak, a run that included a 2-3 loss to Kuressaare. Meanwhile, Paide had been riding a wave of momentum, having just come off a 1-0 win over the same Kuressaare team. The pre-match favourite, Paide, failed to come through, with the model's selection of an Away win proving incorrect. The model had given Paide a 37% chance of winning. In contrast, Laagri's home win was a surprise, with the model assigning only a 35% probability to a home win. The model's selection of an Away win was wrong, while the selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 77.5% probability assigned to this outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laagri win✓ Hit
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.87
1.53
1.47
1.33
2.27
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.23
1.29
2.00
0.67
2.50
vs Similar (4)
2.25
1.25
2.00
0.00
2.50
2.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.62
1.69
1.67
1.33
1.57
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.20
2.13
1.07
1.53
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.40
1.00
1.67
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.83
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (19)
2.26
0.95
2.80
0.80
1.67
1.11
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.6%
0-0
7.5%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
Laagri goals ↓
Paide goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.6%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.4%
13%
8.4%
3.9%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.2%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.7%
3.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.17
Laagri
1.00
Nõmme United
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Laagri is 0.60 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.67
Kalju Nomme
2.33
Laagri
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Vaprus
1.67
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.25
Nõmme United
1.17
Kuressaare
1.14
Trans Narva
1.00
Laagri is 0.40 goals better than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Flora Tallinn
1.20
Paide
1.60
Laagri
1.67
Kuressaare
1.71
Vaprus
1.83
Trans Narva
2.14
Nõmme United
2.33
Tammeka
2.75
Laagri is 0.07 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.73
0.60
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.08
0.43
0.86
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.75
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
1.08
0.83
0.50
0.86
1.57
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.47
1.40
0.50
1.22
0.44
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Tammeka
Nõmme United