Laagri’s recent 2-game winning streak fuels the model’s confidence that they will secure a home win, reflected in the 68% probability. Their average of 2.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home against stronger opponents underpins this edge, while Tamper’s away form shows 2.5 goals scored and no goals conceded against weaker teams, yet the venue disadvantage keeps the home side ahead. The model’s pick is a home victory, and the expected total of 6.0 goals signals a high-scoring affair, with a 54% chance of 6 + goals. The single most likely scoreline is 3-2, carrying a 5.6% probability, distinct from the overall goal expectation. Home win, draw and away win probabilities stand at 68%, 14% and 18% respectively. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (98.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (97.8%), Over 2.5 (93.7%), Home +2 handicap (90.8%), Home over 1.5 goals (89.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.5%), BTTS Yes (86.7%) and Home or Away (86.1%).
Results analysis
Laagri’s 2-game winning streak carried them into the cup clash, and the Pythia model’s prediction of a home win proved correct as Laagri edged Tamper 3-1. The model had picked a home win with a 68% probability, and the outcome matched that forecast. Every suggested selection also hit: Over 1.5 goals (98.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (97.8%), Over 2.5 (93.7%), Home +2 handicap (90.8%), Home over 1.5 goals (89.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.5%), BTTS Yes (86.7%), and Home or Away (86.1%). The match saw 4 goals, exceeding the most likely total of 6+ and confirming the model’s strong coverage of both the result and the goal-related picks.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laagri win✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
13.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tamper win✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.57
3.88
1.25
1.21
1.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
2.00
2.33
2.00
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (18)
2.11
1.39
2.44
0.89
1.78
1.89
vs Weaker (1)
26.00
0.00
26.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamper) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tamper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
2.43
2.75
3.25
2.00
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
6.50
0.00
9.00
1.00
4.00
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
0.80
3.67
1.33
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
29% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 6.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (54%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
98.4%
Under 1.5
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
93.7%
Under 2.5
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
84.7%
Under 3.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
86.7%
No
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-2
5.6%
4-2
5.3%
3-1 ✓
5.2%
4-1
4.9%
2-2
4.4%
5-2
4.1%
2-1
4.1%
3-3
4.0%
Laagri goals ↓
Tamper goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.5%
0.3%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
1
0.8%
2.3%
2.3%
1.6%
0.9%
2
1.9%
4.1%
4.4%
3.2%
1.7%
3
2.4%
5.2%
5.6%
4.0%
2.2%
4
2.3%
4.9%
5.3%
3.8%
2.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = Tamper goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.60
Vaprus
2.40
Paide
2.40
Tartu Welco
2.40
Trans Narva
2.40
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
Elva
2.25
Nõmme United
2.25
Keila
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Laagri
2.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.00
Poseidon
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Tammeka
2.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.80
Saue
1.50
Tallinna Wolves
1.50
Joker
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Hell Hunt
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Tulevik
1.50
Tamper
1.50
Kristiine JK
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Flora II
1.50
Kuressaare
1.50
Kalju Nomme
1.50
Rae Spordikool
1.33
Volta II / Arsenal
1.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
0.96
Lahte United
0.96
Nomme Utd U19
0.96
Rakvere FC Freedom
0.96
Jõgeva Wolves
0.96
Kummik
0.96
Elva III
0.96
Deliirium
0.96
Paide III
0.96
Generation Tallinn
0.96
Rumori Calcio II
0.96
Kena
0.96
Harju JK Laagri U21
0.96
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
0.96
Järva-Jaani
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Zealot Sporting
0.00
Kose
0.00
TalTech
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
Phoenix
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Tartu Kalev
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Laagri is 0.50 points better than Tamper in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Laagri
9.67
Tartu Welco
6.80
Tabasalu Ulasabat
6.50
Flora II
6.00
Vaprus
5.60
FC Tallinn
5.33
Flora Tallinn
4.80
Tammeka
4.67
Tallinna Wolves
4.50
Trans Narva
4.40
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
4.00
Kuressaare
4.00
Tallinna Kalev
3.25
Saue
3.00
Keila
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
3.00
Viimsi
3.00
Kalju Nomme
3.00
Paide
2.80
Nõmme United
2.75
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Saku Sporting
2.67
Joker
2.50
Tamper
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.50
Elva
2.25
Tammeka Tartu U19
2.24
Lahte United
2.24
Nomme Utd U19
2.24
Rakvere FC Freedom
2.24
Jõgeva Wolves
2.24
Kummik
2.24
Elva III
2.24
Deliirium
2.24
Paide III
2.24
Generation Tallinn
2.24
Rumori Calcio II
2.24
Kena
2.24
Harju JK Laagri U21
2.24
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
2.24
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Team Helm
2.00
Rumori Calcio
2.00
Kristiine JK
2.00
Poseidon
1.67
Järva-Jaani
1.00
Flora III
1.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
TalTech
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Kalev
1.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Laagri is 7.17 goals better than Tamper in terms of goals scored per game (9.67 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tallinna Kalev II
0.33
Laagri
0.33
Tartu Welco
0.40
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.60
Trans Narva
0.80
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.00
Paide
1.20
Elva
1.25
Nõmme United
1.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.33
Tammeka
1.33
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Poseidon
2.33
FC Tallinn
2.33
Saue
2.50
Flora II
2.50
Viimsi
2.60
Hiiumaa
3.00
Helios
3.00
Legion
3.00
Tamper
3.00
Joker
3.50
Hell Hunt
3.50
Järva-Jaani
4.00
FC Kohvile
4.00
Keila
4.00
Tallinna Wolves
4.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
4.00
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Rumori Calcio
4.00
Kristiine JK
4.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
4.31
Lahte United
4.31
Nomme Utd U19
4.31
Rakvere FC Freedom
4.31
Jõgeva Wolves
4.31
Kummik
4.31
Elva III
4.31
Deliirium
4.31
Paide III
4.31
Generation Tallinn
4.31
Rumori Calcio II
4.31
Kena
4.31
Harju JK Laagri U21
4.31
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
4.31
Raplamaa
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
6.00
Soccernet
6.00
Phoenix
6.00
JK Tabasalu
6.00
Olympic
6.00
Tulevik
6.50
Zealot Sporting
7.00
Kose
7.00
TalTech
7.00
Team Helm
7.00
Welco X
8.00
Flora III
8.00
EstHam United
9.00
Kuusalu Kalev
16.00
TransferWise
26.00
Laagri is 2.67 goals better than Tamper in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Laagri or Draw✓ Hit
81.8%
Avg Implied -
68%
14%
18%
covers Laagri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri or Tamper✓ Hit
86.1%
Avg Implied -
68%
14%
18%
covers Laagri + Tamper
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tamper✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
68%
14%
18%
covers Draw + Tamper
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Laagri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
97.8%
Under
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
89.4%
Under
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
73.4%
Under
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.5%
Under
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Laagri, so a minus line means Laagri give that many goals of a start and Tamper receive them. At -1, Laagri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Laagri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Laagri)Actual: Draw
Laagri -2
35.4%
Draw -2
16.3%
Tamper +2
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Laagri)Actual: Laagri
Laagri -1
51.8%
Draw -1
16.1%
Tamper +1
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Laagri)Actual: Laagri
Laagri +1
81.8%
Draw +1
9.0%
Tamper -1
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Laagri)Actual: Laagri
Laagri +2
90.8%
Draw +2
5.2%
Tamper -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.83
1.88
0.50
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.91
1.33
0.83
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.83
1.11
0.33
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
12.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamper) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tamper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.86
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
2.00
0.75
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.09
1.00
1.17
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.11
0.56
1.33
0.56
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
14.00
0.00
14.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tamper) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tamper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.57
1.75
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
4.50
0.00
6.00
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.40
2.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tamper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 2.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
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Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →