This match between Laagri and Trans Narva in the Estonia Meistriliiga is finely balanced, with Laagri's recent form taking a hit after two straight defeats, including a 2-3 loss to Kuressaare. Meanwhile, Trans Narva is coming off a 0-2 defeat against Kalju Nomme. The model predicts a home win, with a 41% probability of Laagri taking the three points, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 32% probability of Trans Narva emerging victorious.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability. Laagri has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.88 goals and conceding 1.12 per match against weaker opponents. Trans Narva, however, struggles away from home, scoring 0.67 goals and conceding 2.17 per match against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.5% probability of hitting. The suggested picks also include a home win (41%), a draw (27%), and an away win (32%).
Results analysis
The win extends Laagri's run of inconsistent form, having suffered two consecutive defeats prior to this match. Laagri's 3-0 victory over Trans Narva was the actual result, matching the model's call of a home win, which had a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's selection of a home win was correct.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 80.5%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laagri win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.90
1.60
1.53
1.33
2.27
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
2.50
1.00
2.33
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.71
1.83
1.00
1.38
2.25
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.63
1.93
1.73
1.07
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
2.07
0.86
2.14
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.85
1.31
3.00
1.57
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
6.5%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
6.1%
Laagri goals ↓
Trans Narva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.1%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
1
7.1%
12%
7.8%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.5%
8.9%
6.1%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.4%
4.7%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.3%
1.8%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = Trans Narva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
2.00
Paide
1.83
Tammeka
1.80
Laagri
1.29
Vaprus
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Kuressaare
0.88
Nõmme United
0.86
Laagri is 0.29 points better than Trans Narva in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.67
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.86
Flora Tallinn
1.83
Vaprus
1.57
Tammeka
1.20
Nõmme United
1.14
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Laagri is 0.86 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.71
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Flora Tallinn
1.17
Laagri
1.43
Paide
1.50
Kuressaare
1.62
Vaprus
1.86
Trans Narva
2.14
Tammeka
2.20
Nõmme United
2.57
Laagri is 0.71 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.07
0.60
0.67
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.20
0.33
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.71
1.07
0.83
0.50
0.62
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
0.67
0.33
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.80
1.07
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.14
1.00
0.14
1.43
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.77
1.43
0.86
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.87
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.30
0.67
1.33
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.64
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.67
0.67
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
1.13
0.67
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.07
0.71
0.71
0.57
1.43
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.54
1.57
0.71
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Tammeka
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Nõmme United