Laagri vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Laagri are tipped to win, a 52% chance that the home side will come out on top, with a 25% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of an away victory. The model expects 2.9 goals overall, averaging about 2.6 goals per game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.9% probability. Laagri’s home form shows they average 2.45 goals scored and concede only 1.0 against similarly strong opponents, while Vaprus, on the road, average 0.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.3% chance of hitting. The final score was 1-2 in favour of Vaprus, an away win. The recent form narrative: Laagri are on a two-game winning streak after a 2-1 win over Nõmme United, whereas Vaprus come off a 2-2 draw with Kuressaare.

The upset came early as Laagri, riding a two-game winning run, fell to a 1-2 defeat against Vaprus. The pre-match favourite was the home win, with a 52% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The only other selection, Over 1.5, hit its 80.3% probability. The final score of 1-2 gave Vaprus the away win, overturning expectations. The match saw Laagri’s recent form of WWLLL, while Vaprus entered after a draw. The model’s prediction of a home victory proved inaccurate, yet the Over 1.5 selection proved correct.