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Laagri vs Vaprus Prediction & Stats

Date: 18/10/2026
Time: 11:30
Laagri
Laagri
Vs
50%
24%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Laagri’s recent 2-game winning streak fuels optimism, while Vaprus returns from a draw, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 47% chance of a home win, 25% draw, and 29% away win, making a Laagri victory the most likely outcome. With an expected total of 3.3 goals, the average goal count sits around three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.9% probability. Laagri’s home form shows an average of two goals scored and one conceded against similar opposition, whereas Vaprus averages two goals scored and 1.25 conceded on the road. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Under 6.5 (95.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Under 5.5 (88.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.2%), Home +2 handicap (86.7%), Over 1.5 (84.9%), and Home over 0.5 goals (84.4%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Laagri win
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-812L30W52W80W01L23L31W12L10W21WA·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07H·RAE23/07A·FLO02/08A·KUR07/08H·TAM11/08H·FC 16/08H·KAL22/08A·NÕM29/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.771.473.671.221.421.83
vs Stronger (13)1.541.852.111.670.252.25
vs Similar (16)2.311.252.620.882.001.62
vs Weaker (1)26.000.0026.000.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L51W13L41W11D50W13L12L22D23LA·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08A·NÕM02/09
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.472.501.081.891.72
vs Stronger (18)1.941.672.141.431.821.82
vs Similar (12)2.421.173.000.602.001.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.9%
Under 2.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.8%
Under 3.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.4%
No
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
4.7%
Laagri goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
01234
04.7%4.0%3.4%1.5%0.5%
16.3%11%6.6%3.0%1.0%
27.0%9.5%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.5%6.1%4.1%1.9%0.6%
42.2%3.0%2.0%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Laagri is 0.50 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Laagri is 0.25 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Laagri is 0.50 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Laagri or Draw
74.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Laagri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri or Vaprus
76.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Laagri + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vaprus
49.6%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Draw + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Laagri over/under 0.5
Over
85.7%
Under
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 3.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5
Over
74.0%
Under
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Laagri, so a minus line means Laagri give that many goals of a start and Vaprus receive them. At -1, Laagri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Laagri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Laagri)
Laagri -2
13.9%
Draw -2
15.6%
Vaprus +2
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Laagri)
Laagri -1
29.5%
Draw -1
20.9%
Vaprus +1
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Laagri)
Laagri +1
74.4%
Draw +1
14.2%
Vaprus -1
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Laagri)
Laagri +2
88.6%
Draw +2
7.5%
Vaprus -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LaagriLaagri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L20W51W20W00D01L21W11D00D10WA·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07H·RAE23/07A·FLO02/08A·KUR07/08H·TAM11/08H·FC 16/08H·KAL22/08A·NÕM29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.731.830.500.751.08
vs Stronger (13)0.850.921.220.780.001.25
vs Similar (16)1.190.621.250.251.121.00
vs Weaker (1)12.000.0012.000.00--
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L31W02L11D10W30W02L02L11D13LA·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08A·NÕM02/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.901.420.751.061.00
vs Stronger (18)1.060.891.141.001.000.82
vs Similar (12)1.420.921.800.401.141.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LaagriLaagri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D10W01L60W01L22D10W01L10W11DA·TAM05/07H·TRA10/07H·PAI19/07H·RAE23/07A·FLO02/08A·KUR07/08H·TAM11/08H·FC 16/08H·KAL22/08A·NÕM29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.731.830.720.670.75
vs Stronger (13)0.690.920.890.890.251.00
vs Similar (16)1.120.621.380.620.880.62
vs Weaker (1)14.000.0014.000.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W11D30W01L20W11D10W11D10WA·PAI04/07H·TAM11/07A·TRA18/07A·TAB21/07H·FC 02/08A·PHO12/08A·KAL16/08H·FLO23/08A·KUR29/08A·NÕM02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.571.080.330.830.72
vs Stronger (18)0.890.781.000.430.821.00
vs Similar (12)1.000.251.200.200.860.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.2%-------
Under 6.595.0%-------
Home +2 handicap88.6%-------
Under 5.588.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals86.7%-------
Home over 0.5 goals85.7%-------
Over 1.585.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals84.6%-------
Under 4.576.4%-------
Home or Away76.0%-------
Home or Draw74.4%-------
Home +1 handicap74.4%-------
Away over 0.5 goals74.0%-------
Away +2 handicap70.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Laagri and Vaprus have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Laagri and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Laagri and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Laagri and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
LAA wins
3
Draws
4
VAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Laagri vs Vaprus · H/A from LAA
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25HLAA Vs Vaprus1-2
25/07/25AVaprus Vs LAA2-2
26/04/25HLAA Vs Vaprus0-1
05/04/25AVaprus Vs LAA1-1
27/10/23AVaprus Vs LAA0-0
02/09/23HLAA Vs Vaprus0-4
28/05/23AVaprus Vs LAA0-1
28/04/23HLAA Vs Vaprus1-2

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ANõmme United Vs LAA1-2
22/08/26HLAA Vs Kalju Nomme1-0
16/08/26HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-2
11/08/26HLAA Vs Tamper3-1
07/08/26AKuressaare Vs LAA3-2
02/08/26AFlora Tallinn Vs LAA1-0
23/07/26HLAA Vs Rae Spordikool8-0
19/07/26HLAA Vs Paide5-2
10/07/26HLAA Vs Trans Narva3-0
05/07/26ATammeka Vs LAA2-1

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26ANõmme United Vs VAP3-2
29/08/26AKuressaare Vs VAP2-2
23/08/26HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
16/08/26AKalju Nomme Vs VAP3-1
12/08/26APhoenix Vs VAP0-5
02/08/26HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-1
21/07/26ATabasalu Ulasabat Vs VAP1-4
18/07/26ATrans Narva Vs VAP3-1
11/07/26HVAP Vs Tammeka5-1
04/07/26APaide Vs VAP3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.26
HomeWWWLW1.50
AwayWLLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals3.824.153.46
Over 1.5 %86%81%92%
Over 2.5 %78%73%83%
Over 3.5 %44%38%50%
Scored2.142.851.38
Conceded1.681.312.08
BTTS60%54%67%
Clean Sheet16%27%4%
Corners---
Cards---
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.44
HomeWWWDL1.50
AwayWWLDL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%42%42%
AVG goals3.543.673.42
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %72%71%73%
Over 3.5 %42%33%50%
Scored2.102.381.85
Conceded1.441.291.58
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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