PythiaFootballBETA
Lahti is the clear favourite to win at home against FF Jaro, with a 63% chance of victory. The model rates them highly due to their strong home form against similar opponents, scoring an average of 2 goals per game while conceding just 1.2. FF Jaro, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.7% probability.
Lahti's home scoring and conceding statistics are impressive, while FF Jaro's away form has been poor. The model's selection is Over 1.5, which is likely to hit with a 78.1% probability.
The model's favoured match result is a home win, with a 63% chance of Lahti taking all three points. The draw percentage is 23%, while the away win percentage is 14%. The model's other selections include the Over 1.5 with a 78.1% probability, and the home win with a 63% probability.
Lahti's win extends their run, now four games unbeaten, following a draw before this match. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home win, as predicted by the model. Lahti were the favourites, with a pre-match probability of 63% in their favour, and the model's call was correct. The model's selection, Lahti to win, came in as expected. The model also suggested Over 1.5 goals, which hit with a probability of 78.1%, and another Over 1.5 goals selection, which missed with a probability of 21.9%.
Lahti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.10 | 1.81 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.83 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.43 | 0.71 | 1.57 | 0.57 | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.20 | 1.40 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
FF Jaro| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.87 | 1.35 | 1.71 | 1.00 | 2.08 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.50 | 2.75 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.05 | 1.64 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 1.91 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| FF Jaro goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
LahtiFF JaroLahti| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.3 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 22.6 | 21.6 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (10) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 57% | 33% | 12% | 15% | 8% | 80% | 71% | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 43% | 67% | 88% | 85% | 92% | 20% | 29% | 0% |
FF Jaro| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 18.4 | 18.9 | 17.6 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 10.6 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 17.8 | 22.0 | 11.5 |
| vs Similar (35) | 10.0 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 18.6 | 17.7 | 19.7 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 18.5 | 18.5 | - |
| % over line | 45% | 50% | 38% | 16% | 23% | 8% | 35% | 33% | 38% |
| % under line | 55% | 50% | 62% | 84% | 77% | 92% | 65% | 67% | 62% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -0.0% | â Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/10/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/10/24 | A | 2-0 |
Lahti| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-1 |
FF Jaro| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 2-5 | |
| 31/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 20/05/26 | A | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value âŽm | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  KuPS | 20 | 43 | 60% | 2.1 | 36 | 18 | +18 | 2.7 | 85% | 45% | 25% | 8.1 | 33% | 1.9 | 11% | 19.9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 57% |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 20 | 38 | 50% | 1.9 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 2.2 | 70% | 35% | 20% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.3 | 14% | 19.7 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 3 |  HJK Helsinki | 20 | 34 | 50% | 1.7 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 2.8 | 70% | 55% | 25% | 7.0 | 14% | 3.0 | 43% | 18.4 | 43% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Gnistan | 20 | 32 | 45% | 1.6 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 2.9 | 80% | 45% | 30% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 24.2 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 5 |  VPS | 20 | 30 | 40% | 1.5 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 2.5 | 65% | 45% | 30% | 7.1 | 30% | 3.4 | 50% | 21.8 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 6 |  AC Oulu | 20 | 30 | 45% | 1.5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.8 | 62% | 22.6 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 7 |  Turku PS | 20 | 29 | 40% | 1.4 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 25% | 7.7 | 40% | 3.9 | 60% | 20.3 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 8 | Lahti | 20 | 26 | 35% | 1.3 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 2.0 | 65% | 30% | 10% | 8.3 | 50% | 3.8 | 60% | 22.6 | 80% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 56% |
| 9 |  Ilves | 20 | 25 | 35% | 1.2 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 3.4 | 80% | 65% | 55% | 8.1 | 11% | 3.0 | 56% | 18.0 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 10 |  SJK | 20 | 18 | 20% | 0.9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 2.8 | 85% | 55% | 30% | 9.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 57% | 20.4 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 20 | 15 | 15% | 0.8 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 3.0 | 85% | 60% | 30% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 40% | 19.2 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 20 | 8 | 5% | 0.4 | 11 | 41 | -30 | 2.6 | 85% | 45% | 20% | 10.5 | 70% | 3.0 | 64% | 21.3 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 45% |