This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.75
0.57
1.43
2.00
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
1.80
0.00
2.00
2.67
1.67
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.80
0.80
1.20
2.00
2.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
12% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.8%
Under 2.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.4%
Under 3.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
7.4%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.0%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.7%
Lahti goals ↓
Gnistan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
7.4%
7.0%
3.8%
1.6%
1
5.7%
12%
9.2%
5.0%
2.1%
2
4.5%
7.4%
6.1%
3.3%
1.4%
3
2.0%
3.2%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.6%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lahti goals (down), columns = Gnistan goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
2.07
Ilves
2.00
HJK Helsinki
1.67
SJK
1.52
FF Jaro
1.50
Inter Turku
1.50
Gnistan
1.41
VPS
1.39
Haka
1.32
AC Oulu
1.04
Mariehamn
0.96
Lahti
0.93
EIF
0.70
Lahti is 0.48 points worse than Gnistan in terms of average points per game (0.93 vs 1.41).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ilves
2.07
SJK
1.72
KuPS
1.70
Inter Turku
1.68
HJK Helsinki
1.63
VPS
1.54
Haka
1.48
Gnistan
1.48
AC Oulu
1.19
Lahti
1.10
FF Jaro
1.00
Mariehamn
1.00
EIF
0.89
Lahti is 0.38 goals worse than Gnistan in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.48).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FF Jaro
0.50
KuPS
0.89
HJK Helsinki
1.00
Ilves
1.00
Inter Turku
1.25
AC Oulu
1.48
Gnistan
1.55
Haka
1.61
SJK
1.62
Mariehamn
1.63
VPS
1.64
Lahti
1.69
EIF
2.11
Lahti is 0.14 goals worse than Gnistan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.55).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Lahti
For 6.9 · Against 4.2 · Total 11.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gnistan
For 5.5 · Against 7.0 · Total 12.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 0.5 · Total 4.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 12.5 · Total 21.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.6
2.3
2.1
2.5
23.8
22.5
25.2
vs Stronger (13)
6.8
6.2
7.2
2.7
2.2
3.1
24.1
23.5
24.8
vs Similar (36)
11.9
11.7
12.2
2.2
2.1
2.4
23.6
22.0
25.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
52%
46%
58%
36%
25%
46%
60%
46%
75%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
64%
75%
54%
40%
54%
25%
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (16)
12.5
10.0
15.0
0.6
0.4
0.7
21.0
16.0
26.0
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
12.5
10.0
15.0
0.9
0.6
1.2
21.0
16.0
26.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
6%
0%
11%
50%
0%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
94%
100%
89%
50%
100%
0%
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
12.5
SJK
10.6
Haka
10.5
Mariehamn
10.4
Lahti
10.1
VPS
9.9
KuPS
9.7
Inter Turku
9.7
Ilves
9.6
HJK Helsinki
9.2
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.8
Gnistan
4.5
Mariehamn
4.5
Inter Turku
4.4
Haka
4.4
KuPS
4.4
SJK
4.0
Ilves
3.8
VPS
3.7
HJK Helsinki
3.2
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ilves
25.2
Inter Turku
24.7
Mariehamn
24.5
SJK
24.0
KuPS
23.9
Lahti
23.5
HJK Helsinki
22.8
Haka
22.4
VPS
22.1
Gnistan
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.0%
Under 9.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.9%
Under 3.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.1%
Under 21.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.53
1.13
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.89
0.70
1.20
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.88
0.43
0.86
0.44
0.89
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.10
0.60
0.80
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
0.80
0.80
0.80
1.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.79
0.60
0.70
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.94
0.88
0.14
0.57
1.56
1.11
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.20
0.00
1.00
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.70
0.20
0.40
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gnistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Lahti · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
TÃēfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Gnistan · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adeleke Akinyemi60%
Joakim Latonen25%
D. PÃĐrez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. YlÃĪtupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. HÃĪnninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Otto Hannula40%
Alexandro Craninx33%
V. HÃĪnninen33%
Adeleke Akinyemi20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
G. Europaeus20%
D. PÃĐrez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. YlÃĪtupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
V. HÃĪnninen33%
D. PÃĐrez20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. YlÃĪtupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. PÃĐrez20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. YlÃĪtupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. HÃĪnninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
Lahti and Gnistan have a similar squad value (both €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
EIF (9)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
Lahti and Gnistan have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
HAK (5)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
Lahti and Gnistan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
EIF (7)
€0m
Lahti and Gnistan have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
SJK
Inter Turku
Haka
VPS
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
EIF
FF Jaro