This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
0.71
1.33
1.67
1.25
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.25
1.33
1.67
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
-
-
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
71% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.0%
Under 2.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
34.8%
No
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
16.3%
0-1
16.0%
0-3
10.5%
0-0
9.6%
1-1 â
9.4%
1-2
8.2%
1-3
5.3%
0-4
5.1%
Lahti goals ↓
HJK Helsinki goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
16%
16%
11%
5.1%
1
3.6%
9.4%
8.2%
5.3%
2.6%
2
1.1%
2.2%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
3
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lahti goals (down), columns = HJK Helsinki goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
HJK Helsinki
2.15
KuPS
2.11
Honka
1.81
Haka
1.66
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.42
Mariehamn
1.26
Ilves
1.26
SJK
1.25
Inter Turku
1.14
Lahti
0.78
HIFK Helsinki
0.33
Lahti is 1.37 points worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 2.15).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Honka
1.96
VPS
1.94
AC Oulu
1.66
KuPS
1.59
Ilves
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.52
Mariehamn
1.52
Haka
1.52
Inter Turku
1.43
SJK
1.18
Lahti
0.96
HIFK Helsinki
0.74
Lahti is 0.56 goals worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.52).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
KuPS
0.78
HJK Helsinki
0.85
Honka
1.00
SJK
1.39
AC Oulu
1.41
Haka
1.45
VPS
1.48
Inter Turku
1.50
Mariehamn
1.59
Ilves
1.59
Lahti
2.04
HIFK Helsinki
2.59
Lahti is 1.19 goals worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of goals conceded per game (2.04 vs 0.85).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
KuPS
57%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
51%
Honka
51%
Haka
50%
Inter Turku
49%
Lahti
49%
VPS
49%
HIFK Helsinki
48%
Ilves
47%
Mariehamn
47%
Lahti is 6.1 percentage points worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of average possession (49% vs 55%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Lahti
For 4.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
For 7.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 9.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (6)
9.7
10.3
9.0
5.2
4.0
6.3
22.3
24.7
20.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
10.0
-
3.5
3.5
-
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (4)
9.5
11.0
9.0
6.0
5.0
6.3
21.5
26.0
20.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
83%
67%
100%
67%
67%
67%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
17%
33%
0%
33%
33%
33%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (7)
9.4
8.7
10.0
3.7
3.3
4.0
27.1
28.7
26.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
9.2
8.7
11.0
4.0
3.3
6.0
30.2
28.7
35.0
vs Weaker (3)
9.7
-
9.7
3.3
-
3.3
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
57%
33%
75%
43%
33%
50%
71%
100%
50%
% under line
43%
67%
25%
57%
67%
50%
29%
0%
50%
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SJK
9.8
Lahti
9.7
Inter Turku
9.7
HJK Helsinki
9.4
HIFK Helsinki
9.4
Mariehamn
9.2
Honka
9.0
Haka
8.6
Ilves
8.0
VPS
7.4
KuPS
6.3
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
5.2
HIFK Helsinki
4.8
Mariehamn
4.4
Inter Turku
4.3
KuPS
4.2
HJK Helsinki
3.7
SJK
3.7
VPS
3.2
Ilves
3.2
Haka
2.6
Honka
2.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HJK Helsinki
27.1
HIFK Helsinki
25.2
Mariehamn
24.4
Inter Turku
22.8
Lahti
22.3
Ilves
22.2
KuPS
21.2
VPS
20.8
Haka
17.2
Honka
13.8
SJK
13.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.0%
Under 9.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.4%
Under 3.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
57.7%
Under 21.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.67
0.00
1.33
0.33
0.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
3.00
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.29
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
-
-
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
71% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.00
1.33
1.33
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.75
0.00
2.00
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.43
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
86% (+61pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away win
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Lahti · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
TÃēfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj40%
Nassim Boujellab0%
Pyry Soiri0%
David Browne0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Conor Hazard0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Santeri VÃĪÃĪnÃĪnen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Malik Abubakari0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj40%
Jukka Raitala40%
Nassim Boujellab33%
David Browne17%
Santeri Hostikka17%
Malik Abubakari17%
Pyry Soiri0%
Conor Hazard0%
Santeri VÃĪÃĪnÃĪnen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Santeri Hostikka17%
Malik Abubakari17%
Nassim Boujellab0%
Pyry Soiri0%
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj0%
David Browne0%
Conor Hazard0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Santeri VÃĪÃĪnÃĪnen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj20%
David Browne17%
Malik Abubakari17%
Nassim Boujellab0%
Pyry Soiri0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Conor Hazard0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Santeri VÃĪÃĪnÃĪnen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
Lahti's squad is €4m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€3m vs €7m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
Lahti's attack is €1m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€1m vs €2m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
HAK (5)
€0m
Lahti and HJK Helsinki have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
Lahti's defence is €2m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€1m vs €3m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Honka
Haka
AC Oulu
VPS
SJK
Ilves
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
HIFK Helsinki