This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.67
1.73
1.40
1.87
1.93
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.67
2.00
1.50
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (25)
1.84
1.56
1.67
1.42
2.00
1.69
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.1%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
1-0
5.6%
Lahti goals ↓
Ilves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
7.5%
7.1%
3.9%
1.6%
1
5.6%
12%
9.3%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.4%
7.3%
6.0%
3.3%
1.4%
3
1.9%
3.2%
2.6%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lahti goals (down), columns = Ilves goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Lahti is 0.32 points better than Ilves in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.14).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Lahti is 0.36 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.55).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Lahti is 0.82 goals better than Ilves in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.68).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Lahti is 6.9 percentage points better than Ilves in terms of average possession (56% vs 49%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Lahti
For 4.4 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
For 5.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 10.6 · Total 18.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
9.5
3.0
0.5
0.7
0.2
24.8
25.0
24.0
vs Stronger (6)
13.0
13.0
-
0.5
3.0
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Similar (36)
7.0
8.3
3.0
0.6
0.8
0.3
24.8
25.0
24.0
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
50%
0%
8%
13%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
60%
50%
100%
92%
87%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.5
11.2
1.5
1.4
1.5
19.7
19.0
20.3
vs Stronger (4)
11.5
13.0
10.0
2.2
2.0
2.5
19.5
15.0
24.0
vs Similar (43)
11.5
11.3
11.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
19.7
19.6
19.9
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
-
9.0
1.3
0.0
2.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
67%
50%
80%
22%
17%
27%
44%
50%
40%
% under line
33%
50%
20%
78%
83%
73%
56%
50%
60%
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.8
Turku PS
11.2
SJK
10.6
Inter Turku
10.5
Mariehamn
10.5
FF Jaro
10.4
Ilves
10.3
VPS
10.2
HJK Helsinki
10.1
Lahti
9.9
AC Oulu
9.9
KuPS
9.9
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
6.6
Lahti
4.8
Mariehamn
4.1
Gnistan
4.0
SJK
3.9
AC Oulu
3.9
Ilves
3.9
Inter Turku
3.9
VPS
3.7
FF Jaro
3.5
KuPS
3.5
HJK Helsinki
3.1
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Turku PS
30.6
SJK
24.1
Ilves
24.1
Lahti
23.6
Inter Turku
23.6
Mariehamn
23.3
VPS
22.6
KuPS
22.4
AC Oulu
22.3
Gnistan
22.1
HJK Helsinki
21.0
FF Jaro
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.5%
Under 9.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.9%
Under 3.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.0%
Under 21.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
1.13
0.47
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.57
1.18
0.45
1.00
0.70
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.33
0.67
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.60
0.83
0.58
0.77
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.73
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.52
0.73
0.64
0.90
0.40
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
1.33
0.67
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.97
0.93
0.87
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.96
0.83
0.83
1.23
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Lahti
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
TÃēfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. HytÃķnen43%
J. Kanga43%
R. Riski33%
J. Veteli25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
Otto Tiitinen17%
Oliver Pettersson12%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
M. Rale0%
F. KrkaliÄ0%
K. Wallius0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Wallius33%
Y. Raap29%
T. Miettunen25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
R. Riski17%
J. Kanga14%
A. Popovitch12%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. KrkaliÄ0%
T. HytÃķnen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Kilo50%
J. Kanga29%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. KrkaliÄ0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
K. Wallius0%
T. HytÃķnen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. HytÃķnen29%
Maksim Stjopin20%
J. Kanga14%
J. Kilo12%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. KrkaliÄ0%
K. Wallius0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Lahti's squad is €2m less valuable than Ilves's (€3m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Lahti and Ilves have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Lahti and Ilves have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Lahti and Ilves have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Turku PS
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn