KuPS and Lahti are set to face off in the Finland: Veikkausliiga on the 16th of August. The recent storyline is that both teams are coming off a draw, with Lahti drawing 0-0 against Inter Turku and KuPS drawing 1-1 against Turku PS.
The model favours KuPS to win away, with a probability of 48%. Lahti has a 23% chance of winning at home, while the draw holds a 30% probability. The expected total goals in this match is 2.3, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.8%.
Lahti's home form is strong, with an average of 1.71 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded against stronger opponents. KuPS's away form, however, is weaker, with an average of 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is Under 3.5, with a probability of 79.3% and a 10% edge. It is also worth noting that the model suggests a Home win, with a probability of 23%, a Draw, with a probability of 30%, and an Away win, with a probability of 48%.
Lahti's win extends their run of inconsistent form, following a defeat and then a win. The final score was 1-2, which matches the actual result of an away win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, KuPS, to win, with a pre-match probability of 48%. The model's selection, an away win, was correct.
The model's Under 3.5 pick hit, with a probability of 79.3%. The Over 3.5 pick missed, but its probability is not given in the data. The model's selection of KuPS to win also came in, as did the away team to score 2 goals, which hit with a probability not given in the data.
Lahti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.03 | 1.79 | 0.71 | 1.44 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.65 | 1.00 | 1.82 | 0.64 | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
KuPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 0.93 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.50 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.29 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.71 | 0.57 | 1.12 | 0.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| KuPS goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 13% | 10% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 14% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Lahti
KuPS
Lahti| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.3 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 22.6 | 21.6 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 13.0 | 13.0 | - | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | - |
| vs Similar (37) | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 22.3 | 21.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (7) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 57% | 33% | 12% | 16% | 8% | 80% | 71% | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 43% | 67% | 88% | 84% | 92% | 20% | 29% | 0% |
KuPS| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 20.0 | 20.8 | 19.1 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 8.8 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 19.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 |
| vs Similar (22) | 9.7 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 18.3 | 21.4 | 14.0 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 9.8 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| % over line | 39% | 29% | 50% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 36% | 43% | 29% |
| % under line | 61% | 71% | 50% | 84% | 84% | 84% | 64% | 57% | 71% |
Lahti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.21 | 0.69 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.87 | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
KuPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.87 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.92 | 0.25 | 0.86 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.73 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Lahti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.78 | 0.48 | 0.82 | 0.45 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
KuPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.58 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.67 | 0.20 | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.62 | 0.12 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 91.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 90.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 83.1% | 1.39 | 1.48 | 1.39 | 1.36 | 1.34 | - | +17.3% | - |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 81.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 79.3% | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.33 | +9.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Draw or Away | 77.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 74.1% | 1.66 | 1.75 | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.62 | 1.59 | +18.3% | - |
| Home or Away | 70.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/07/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 27/04/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 01/07/23 | H | 3-4 | |
| 20/05/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/07/22 | A | 4-0 | |
| 22/04/22 | H | 0-1 |
Lahti| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 2-3 |
KuPS| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 09/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 28/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 43 | 55% | 2.0 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 2.8 | 82% | 45% | 27% | 8.1 | 33% | 1.9 | 11% | 19.9 | 44% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 42 | 50% | 1.9 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 2.0 | 64% | 32% | 18% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.3 | 14% | 19.7 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 37 | 50% | 1.7 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 2.9 | 73% | 59% | 27% | 7.0 | 14% | 3.0 | 43% | 18.4 | 43% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 36 | 45% | 1.6 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 3.0 | 82% | 45% | 32% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 24.2 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 34 | 45% | 1.5 | 25 | 25 | +0 | 2.3 | 55% | 36% | 18% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.8 | 62% | 22.6 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 33 | 41% | 1.5 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 2.3 | 59% | 41% | 27% | 7.1 | 30% | 3.4 | 50% | 21.8 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 32 | 41% | 1.5 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 2.0 | 64% | 32% | 9% | 8.3 | 50% | 3.8 | 60% | 22.6 | 80% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 56% |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 31 | 36% | 1.4 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 2.3 | 68% | 45% | 23% | 7.7 | 40% | 3.9 | 60% | 20.3 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 25 | 32% | 1.1 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 3.2 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 8.1 | 11% | 3.0 | 56% | 18.0 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 19 | 18% | 0.9 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 2.6 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 9.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 57% | 20.4 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 15 | 14% | 0.7 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 2.8 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 40% | 19.2 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 14 | 14% | 0.6 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 2.7 | 86% | 45% | 23% | 10.5 | 70% | 3.0 | 64% | 21.3 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 45% |