Lahti’s 64% chance of victory makes them the clear favourite, a rating that reflects their solid home form and the fact that they play at home against an opponent whose away side struggles to keep clean sheets. The model predicts an average of 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Lahti, a 11.5% chance. Lahti averages 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Mariehamn, playing away, scores 1.88 but concedes 1.75 against comparable teams. The match’s probabilities are 64% home win, 22% draw, 14% away win. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.1% with a 5% edge, Home +2 handicap at 95.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.5% with a 3% edge, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.0% with a 3% edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lahti win
64.1%
Avg Implied 60.0% · @ 1.54
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.57
Dafabet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Draw
22.1%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.00
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.16
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.05
Mariehamn win
13.7%
Avg Implied 16.8% · @ 5.49
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
5.90
Pinnacle
5.83
Dafabet
5.80
1xBet
5.77
William Hil
5.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lahti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.03
1.71
0.79
1.38
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.29
1.00
1.33
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
1.59
0.95
1.80
0.60
1.42
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.63
1.07
1.27
1.27
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.94
1.75
1.22
1.33
0.57
2.29
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.50
0.83
1.17
1.88
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.5%
@ 1.23+4.3%
Under 1.5
20.5%
@ 3.73-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Unibet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.85
Betano
3.70
1xBet
3.62
Marathonbet
3.62
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.4%
@ 1.76+2.2%
Under 2.5
44.6%
@ 2.01-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.0%
@ 2.84+0.6%
Under 3.5
67.0%
@ 1.37-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.97
Unibet
2.85
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
@ 1.81-0.4%
No
49.0%
@ 1.91+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
William Hil
1.83
Betano
1.80
Betfair
1.80
No
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.94
Betano
1.91
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.86
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.5%@ 6.71+5.0%
1-1
10.6%@ 7.04+4.3%
1-0
10.3%@ 6.32+3.4%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.11+3.7%
3-0
7.9%@ 10.15+3.5%
3-1
6.7%@ 11.04+2.7%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.04+2.5%
2-2
4.2%@ 15.00+1.3%
Lahti goals ↓
Mariehamn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
3.7%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
1
10%
11%
4.1%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.9%
6.7%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.0%
3.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lahti goals (down), columns = Mariehamn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Lahti is 0.82 points better than Mariehamn in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 0.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Lahti is 0.41 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 0.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Lahti is 1.09 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Lahti is 11.7 percentage points better than Mariehamn in terms of average possession (56% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lahti
For 5.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
8.9
7.0
0.8
1.0
0.5
22.6
21.6
25.0
vs Stronger (7)
13.0
13.0
-
0.4
1.0
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Similar (36)
7.8
8.2
7.0
1.0
1.2
0.7
22.3
21.0
25.0
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
57%
33%
12%
16%
8%
80%
71%
100%
% under line
50%
43%
67%
88%
84%
92%
20%
29%
0%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.2
9.3
1.4
1.8
1.0
20.3
20.6
19.8
vs Stronger (27)
9.5
10.0
9.0
0.9
1.0
0.8
19.9
20.0
19.8
vs Similar (23)
11.0
11.8
9.6
2.1
2.9
1.3
20.5
20.9
19.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
77%
56%
24%
32%
16%
52%
50%
56%
% under line
32%
23%
44%
76%
68%
84%
48%
50%
44%
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.6
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
KuPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.2
Inter Turku
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
37.6%
@ 1.52-22.8%
Under 9.5
62.4%
@ 2.32+22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.52
Under
Unibet
2.32
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
39.0%
Under 3.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
37.9%
Under 21.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lahti or Draw
86.3%
Avg Implied 83.4% · @ 1.12
Edge
+2.9%
64%
22%
14%
covers Lahti + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Lahti or Mariehamn
77.9%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.21
Edge
+0.5%
64%
22%
14%
covers Lahti + Mariehamn
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Draw or Mariehamn
35.9%
Avg Implied 39.3% · @ 2.37
Edge
-3.4%
64%
22%
14%
covers Draw + Mariehamn
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.45
1xBet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
William Hil
2.40
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lahti over/under 0.5
Over
87.1%
@ 1.11+3.4%
Under
12.9%
@ 5.70-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Under
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.30
Lahti over/under 1.5
Over
60.6%
@ 1.63+3.5%
Under
39.4%
@ 2.18-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Betfair
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Lahti over/under 2.5
Over
33.6%
@ 2.97+2.3%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.35-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Unibet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
Under
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Lahti over/under 3.5
Over
15.1%
@ 5.92-0.4%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.09+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Mariehamn over/under 0.5
Over
57.4%
@ 1.59-0.8%
Under
42.6%
@ 2.22+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Under
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
1xBet
2.15
Mariehamn over/under 1.5
Over
21.1%
@ 3.90-2.8%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.22+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.22
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Betfair
3.75
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Mariehamn over/under 2.5
Over
5.5%
@ 10.74-3.3%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.04+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Mariehamn over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lahti, so a minus line means Lahti give that many goals of a start and Mariehamn receive them. At -1, Lahti must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lahti win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lahti)
Lahti -2
20.8%
@ 4.78+2.1%
Draw -2
19.9%
@ 4.45-0.2%
Mariehamn +2
59.3%
@ 1.45-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.45
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Handicap -1 (Lahti)
Lahti -1
40.7%
@ 2.52+5.2%
Draw -1
23.5%
@ 3.38-2.9%
Mariehamn +1
35.9%
@ 2.34-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
Draw
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Away
Marathonbet
2.45
Betfair
2.38
Unibet
2.18
Handicap +1 (Lahti)
Lahti +1
86.3%
@ 1.11+14.1%
Draw +1
9.2%
@ 4.75-7.6%
Mariehamn -1
4.5%
@ 7.30-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
7.30
Handicap +2 (Lahti)
Lahti +2
95.5%
Draw +2
3.5%
Mariehamn -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.93
0.36
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.20
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.47
0.60
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.88
0.67
0.67
0.43
1.14
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.64
0.17
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.1%
@ 1.33+2.2%
Under 0.5
27.9%
@ 3.09-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
William Hil
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.9%
@ 2.59+1.0%
Under 1.5
63.1%
@ 1.45-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.59
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Unibet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.6%
@ 5.98-2.8%
Under 2.5
87.4%
@ 1.09+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.6%
@ 1.62+3.2%
Under
39.4%
@ 2.19-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
1xBet
2.24
Betano
2.12
Unibet
2.10
Lahti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.0%
@ 4.03+0.9%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.21-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.05
1xBet
3.90
Under
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Lahti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.1%
@ 10.62-2.7%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.02+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.8%
@ 2.81-3.3%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.39+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.11
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.80
Betano
2.75
Unibet
2.55
Under
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.0%
@ 10.38-3.1%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.79
0.43
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.45
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.60
0.67
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.88
0.56
0.67
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.86
0.67
0.67
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.6%
@ 1.20+4.3%
Under 0.5
18.4%
@ 4.09-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Betano
4.25
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
William Hil
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.3%
@ 1.98+3.2%
Under 1.5
49.7%
@ 1.76-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Unibet
1.73
William Hil
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.7%
@ 4.08-0.1%
Under 2.5
77.3%
@ 1.20+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.0%
@ 1.43+3.4%
Under
31.0%
@ 2.71-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Lahti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.0%
@ 2.94+1.5%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.36-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.96
Betano
2.87
Under
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Lahti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.2%
@ 7.25-1.7%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.07+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.3%
@ 2.32-0.8%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.55+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.35
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.51
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.0%
@ 8.10-3.5%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.06+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.80
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
@ 12.50-6.3%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Under 6.5
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Home +2 handicap
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+3.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
Under 5.5
92.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+3.5%
Under 5.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
+1.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+2.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
87.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.09
-
-
+3.4%
Home or Draw
86.3%
1.12
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+2.9%
Home +1 handicap
86.3%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+14.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
84.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
+0.4%
Under 4.5
83.2%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+0.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+4.3%
Over 1.5
79.5%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.3%
Away under 1.5 goals
78.9%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
+2.8%
Under 4.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.9%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+0.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.20
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
+0.1%
Under 23.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.21
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-0.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.1%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.30
+2.2%
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.39
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
+3.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lahti
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
José Müller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tòfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
Tòfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Mariehamn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian Dahlström33%
A. Larsson29%
M. Hyvönen17%
Anttoni Huttunen14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
Tuomas Koivisto0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastian Dahlström33%
Pontus Lindgren33%
E. Patut30%
J. Nissinen29%
A. Soiniemi25%
Luke Pearce20%
Nikolaos Dosis17%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
Noah Nurmi11%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
M. Hyvönen0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yeboah Amankwah20%
Luke Pearce20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian Dahlström0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. Hyvönen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Larsson29%
E. Patut20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian Dahlström0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. Hyvönen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Lahti and Mariehamn have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Lahti and Mariehamn have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Lahti and Mariehamn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Lahti and Mariehamn have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro