PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz, on a 5-game winning run, looks set to extend their streak against Grazer AK. The model predicts a home win, with a 59% probability of Lask Linz taking all three points. The draw percentage stands at 24%, while Grazer AK's chances of a win are 17%.
A relatively low-scoring match is expected, with an average of 2.8 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, although this is not the most likely total number of goals. The home side has shown strength at home, scoring 1.29 goals per game and conceding 0.86, particularly against weaker opponents.
In contrast, Grazer AK has struggled away from home, scoring 1 goal per game against stronger opponents and conceding 1.33. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 78.7% and a 3% edge. The suggested picks also include Home win, with a 59% probability, and Draw, with a 24% probability.
Lask Linz's win extends their 5-game winning run, with a convincing 3-0 scoreline against Grazer AK. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct with a probability of 59%. The model's call was correct, as the favourite indeed triumphed. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of over 1.5 goals hitting, boasting a probability of 78.7%. The model's most likely score, 2-0, was not the actual result, but the predicted 2.8 total goals fell short of the actual 3.
Lask Linz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.23 | 1.87 | 1.13 | 1.80 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.50 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (13) | 2.23 | 1.08 | 2.67 | 0.83 | 1.86 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.54 | 0.92 | 1.29 | 0.86 | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
Grazer AK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.07 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 1.80 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.24 | 1.18 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.00 | 1.12 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| Grazer AK goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10% | 11% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Lask LinzGrazer AKLask Linz| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 20.6 | 20.5 | 20.6 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 9.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 17.2 | 18.5 | 16.0 |
| vs Similar (18) | 10.7 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 20.5 | 20.3 | 20.7 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 10.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 21.1 | 20.9 | 21.3 |
| % over line | 54% | 64% | 44% | 50% | 52% | 48% | 38% | 32% | 44% |
| % under line | 46% | 36% | 56% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 62% | 68% | 56% |
Grazer AK| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 22.9 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 21.8 |
| vs Similar (24) | 9.0 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 23.9 | 24.5 | 23.2 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 8.4 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 23.4 | 23.7 | 23.1 |
| % over line | 40% | 31% | 50% | 68% | 85% | 50% | 70% | 77% | 62% |
| % under line | 60% | 69% | 50% | 32% | 15% | 50% | 30% | 23% | 38% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.7% | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.22 | +2.6% | â Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/05/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/04/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 16/02/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 4-2 |
Lask Linz| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
Grazer AK| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value âŽm | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 9.0 | 33% | 2.7 | 33% | 20.7 | 67% | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 56% |
| 2 | Lask Linz | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.0 | 33% | 3.7 | 67% | 22.7 | 67% | 48 | 17 | 8 | 22 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 14.0 | 67% | 4.5 | 50% | 16.7 | 0% | 192 | 93 | 40 | 59 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 60% |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 12.7 | 67% | 3.7 | 67% | 21.3 | 67% | 59 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 54% |
| 5 |  Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 10.0 | 67% | 3.7 | 33% | 21.0 | 33% | 35 | 14 | 3 | 18 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 6 |  Austria Lustenau | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 11.3 | 100% | 3.3 | 33% | 20.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 7 |  SCR Altach | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 12.7 | 67% | 2.0 | 0% | 18.7 | 33% | 12 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 8 |  Austria Vienna | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | 11.0 | 67% | 3.3 | 33% | 21.3 | 33% | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.0 | 33% | 22.0 | 67% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 48% |
| 10 |  Ried | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 8.7 | 33% | 3.3 | 67% | 19.3 | 33% | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 49% |
| 11 |  WSG Wattens | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.3 | 33% | 20.7 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 44% |
| 12 |  TSV Hartberg | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.5 | 50% | 19.3 | 33% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 39% |