Lask Linz, riding a 5-game winning streak, is the clear favourite to take down Ried at home. The model's high probability of a home win stems from Lask's strong recent form and Ried's struggles on the road against stronger opponents, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per match.
The model predicts a 67% chance of a home win, 21% for a draw, and 12% for an away win. The expected total goals is 3.0, with the most likely score being 2-0, occurring with a probability of 11.7%.
Lask Linz has a strong home record, scoring 1.5 goals and conceding 0.75 per match against weaker opponents. Ried, on the other hand, struggles on the road, scoring 0.75 goals and conceding 2.25 per match against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with the Over 1.5 goals occurring with a probability of 81%. The suggested picks include the Over 1.5, with 81% probability, and the home win, with 67% probability. The home win percentage is 67%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 12%.
Lask Linz's win extends their 5-game winning streak, with a 4-1 scoreline over Ried. The model's selection, Home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 67%. The model's call was also correct, as it was the favourite. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 77.6% probability, while the most likely outcome of 2 goals was not achieved. In the most likely scores, 2-0 and 1-0 were also not seen, but 1-1 was not a final score either.
Lask Linz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.23 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.44 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 2.00 | 2.67 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 2.42 | 1.00 | 2.80 | 0.80 | 2.14 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 2.13 | 0.67 | 1.57 | 0.57 | 2.62 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
Ried| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.23 | 1.67 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.22 | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.70 | 0.90 | 0.62 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 0.67 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Ried goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12% | 10% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 13% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 8.8% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Lask Linz
Ried
Lask Linz| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 20.8 | 21.0 | 20.6 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 9.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 17.2 | 18.5 | 16.0 |
| vs Similar (17) | 10.6 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 20.8 | 20.6 | 21.0 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 21.4 | 21.6 | 21.1 |
| % over line | 56% | 59% | 52% | 38% | 42% | 35% | 44% | 41% | 48% |
| % under line | 44% | 41% | 48% | 62% | 58% | 65% | 56% | 59% | 52% |
Ried| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 22.7 | 22.4 | 23.1 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 9.2 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 20.3 | 20.7 | 19.8 |
| vs Similar (30) | 9.1 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 23.7 | 22.7 | 24.8 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 9.3 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 22.7 | 29.0 | 19.5 |
| % over line | 40% | 41% | 40% | 62% | 64% | 60% | 62% | 55% | 70% |
| % under line | 60% | 59% | 60% | 38% | 36% | 40% | 38% | 45% | 30% |
Lask Linz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.63 | 1.07 | 0.79 | 0.94 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.08 | 0.58 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.87 | 0.53 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Ried| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.33 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Lask Linz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.37 | 0.93 | 0.21 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.33 | 0.42 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 1.14 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.27 | 0.13 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+47pp vs league) | |||||
Ried| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.83 | 1.13 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.83 | 1.20 | 0.70 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.33 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 81.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 77.6% | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -1.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.5% | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.23 | +1.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 30/08/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/02/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/09/22 | H | 1-1 |
Lask Linz| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-7 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
Ried| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 24/07/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 25/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Lask Linz | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 40% | 9.2 | 40% | 4.4 | 80% | 22.0 | 60% | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 58% |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 11.8 | 40% | 2.8 | 25% | 15.0 | 0% | 105 | 47 | 29 | 29 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 66% |
| 3 | Rapid Vienna | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | 9.0 | 40% | 3.0 | 40% | 18.8 | 40% | 46 | 16 | 10 | 19 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 56% |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 80% | 20% | 20% | 13.2 | 80% | 4.8 | 80% | 20.0 | 40% | 52 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 5 | WSG Wattens | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 10.8 | 40% | 3.6 | 40% | 19.6 | 20% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 13.0 | 80% | 3.2 | 25% | 18.6 | 20% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 42% |
| 7 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 20% | 12.0 | 80% | 4.6 | 60% | 21.4 | 40% | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 42% |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | 14.4 | 100% | 4.0 | 40% | 20.2 | 40% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 41% |
| 9 | Ried | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.0 | 60% | 20.4 | 40% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 52% |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 20% | 10.8 | 60% | 4.6 | 60% | 23.4 | 80% | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 50% |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 19.2 | 40% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 10.4 | 60% | 3.2 | 40% | 17.8 | 20% | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 45% |