This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.56
0.75
1.88
0.38
1.25
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
0.20
2.00
0.00
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
1.00
1.86
0.43
1.25
2.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.2%
@ 1.81+9.1%
Under 2.5
38.8%
@ 1.97-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
0-0 ✓
5.3%
Lecce goals ↓
Monza goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.7%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
1
6.6%
11%
7.1%
3.2%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.3%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.1%
5.6%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.9%
2.5%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lecce goals (down), columns = Monza goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Empoli
1.92
Salernitana
1.82
Monza
1.68
Lecce
1.63
Venezia
1.55
Cittadella
1.50
Chievo
1.47
Spal
1.47
Brescia
1.47
Frosinone
1.32
Reggina
1.32
Cremonese
1.26
Pisa
1.26
Vicenza Virtus
1.26
Pordenone
1.18
Ascoli
1.16
Cosenza
0.92
Reggiana
0.89
Pescara
0.84
Virtus Entella
0.61
Lecce is 0.05 points worse than Monza in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lecce
1.79
Empoli
1.79
Brescia
1.61
Pisa
1.42
Venezia
1.39
Monza
1.34
Chievo
1.32
Cittadella
1.26
Vicenza Virtus
1.26
Cremonese
1.21
Salernitana
1.21
Spal
1.16
Reggina
1.11
Pordenone
1.05
Frosinone
1.00
Ascoli
0.97
Reggiana
0.82
Virtus Entella
0.79
Pescara
0.76
Cosenza
0.76
Lecce is 0.45 goals better than Monza in terms of goals scored per game (1.79 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Monza
0.87
Salernitana
0.89
Empoli
0.92
Cittadella
0.92
Chievo
0.97
Pordenone
1.03
Venezia
1.03
Frosinone
1.11
Spal
1.11
Cremonese
1.16
Reggina
1.18
Lecce
1.24
Cosenza
1.24
Ascoli
1.26
Brescia
1.39
Vicenza Virtus
1.39
Reggiana
1.50
Pisa
1.55
Pescara
1.58
Virtus Entella
1.68
Lecce is 0.37 goals worse than Monza in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 0.87).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lecce
For 6.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monza
For 5.9 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 14.4 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
12.6
11.3
4.9
4.9
4.8
25.6
25.2
26.0
vs Stronger (14)
13.3
14.1
12.4
4.4
4.7
4.0
22.9
21.9
23.9
vs Similar (20)
11.5
11.9
10.9
5.3
5.4
5.2
27.1
27.7
26.4
vs Weaker (16)
11.4
12.3
10.9
4.7
4.2
5.0
26.1
24.3
27.2
% over line
78%
72%
84%
72%
72%
72%
78%
68%
88%
% under line
22%
28%
16%
28%
28%
28%
22%
32%
12%
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (16)
10.2
10.2
10.2
4.9
5.2
4.6
29.8
30.0
29.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
9.4
15.0
8.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
29.2
40.0
26.5
vs Weaker (11)
10.6
9.6
12.5
5.4
5.4
5.2
30.0
28.6
32.5
% over line
62%
75%
50%
81%
88%
75%
94%
100%
88%
% under line
38%
25%
50%
19%
12%
25%
6%
0%
12%
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lecce
12.0
Cosenza
10.8
Pordenone
10.5
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Empoli
10.3
Monza
10.2
Spal
10.2
Cittadella
10.1
Frosinone
10.1
Brescia
9.9
Cremonese
9.9
Venezia
9.7
Reggina
9.5
Virtus Entella
9.4
Pisa
9.3
Pescara
9.0
Ascoli
8.9
Salernitana
8.9
Chievo
8.8
Reggiana
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Reggina
7.1
Pisa
6.2
Salernitana
6.2
Ascoli
5.9
Cosenza
5.9
Vicenza Virtus
5.9
Virtus Entella
5.6
Reggiana
5.6
Pordenone
5.5
Cittadella
5.5
Chievo
5.5
Venezia
5.5
Pescara
5.4
Brescia
5.4
Spal
5.1
Monza
4.9
Lecce
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Cremonese
4.7
Empoli
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Reggina
36.2
Salernitana
34.2
Frosinone
32.9
Cittadella
32.9
Pisa
32.7
Reggiana
32.6
Venezia
31.8
Vicenza Virtus
31.8
Chievo
31.3
Ascoli
31.1
Cosenza
31.0
Pordenone
30.8
Virtus Entella
30.7
Pescara
30.4
Monza
29.8
Empoli
29.4
Spal
29.0
Brescia
28.9
Cremonese
27.8
Lecce
25.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.8%
Under 9.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.9%
Under 3.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.9%
Under 21.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lecce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.87
1.20
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.36
0.67
1.67
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.38
1.20
0.20
0.62
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
0.19
0.88
0.00
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.27
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
81% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lecce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lecce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.07
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.33
0.75
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.91
1.00
0.83
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.69
1.80
0.60
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.56
1.00
0.38
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.20
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.73
0.86
0.43
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
69% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lecce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lecce · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olaf Gorter33%
Tiago Gabriel33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Danilo Veiga33%
Kialonda Gaspar33%
Oumar Ngom33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Willem Geubbels33%
Nikola Štulić33%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Monza · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gustavo Varela100%
Andrea Colpani33%
Omari Forson33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lorenzo Lucchesi67%
Eddy Kouadio33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Mathis Mout0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Cutrone33%
Ricardo Mangas33%
Mathis Mout33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gustavo Varela67%
Patrick Cutrone33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
PIS (36)
€71m
MON (29)
€70m
CRE (30)
€49m
EMP (27)
€20m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
PES (27)
€8m
REG (27)
€8m
Lecce's squad is €2m more valuable than Monza's (€72m vs €70m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (9)
€39m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
PIS (13)
€24m
LEC (9)
€20m
CRE (7)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
ASC (11)
€5m
PES (10)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
REG (6)
€1m
Lecce's attack is €6m less valuable than Monza's (€20m vs €26m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (11)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
PIS (9)
€26m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
CRE (10)
€15m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
VV (12)
€5m
ASC (6)
€3m
REG (9)
€2m
PES (6)
€1m
Lecce's midfield is €8m less valuable than Monza's (€16m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (16)
€47m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
MON (11)
€20m
REG (12)
€4m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Lecce's defence is €17m more valuable than Monza's (€37m vs €20m).
Italy: Serie B 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Empoli
Salernitana
Venezia
Cittadella
Brescia
Spal
Reggina
Frosinone
Cremonese
Pisa
Vicenza Virtus
Ascoli
Cosenza
Reggiana
Pescara
Virtus Entella