This opponent (Cittadella) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.30
1.44
1.25
0.79
1.36
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
1.57
1.12
1.38
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.07
1.71
1.14
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.8%
@ 2.11-2.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
@ 1.70+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
10.8%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.4%
Lecco goals ↓
Cittadella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.9%
3.4%
1.1%
1
8.8%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.2%
2
5.4%
7.0%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.9%
2.5%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lecco goals (down), columns = Cittadella goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Lecco is 0.53 points worse than Cittadella in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Lecco is 0.13 goals worse than Cittadella in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Lecco is 0.71 goals worse than Cittadella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.95 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Lecco and Cittadella are level in average possession (both 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lecco
For 6.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 13.4 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
For 5.9 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 14.3 · Total 30.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
9.8
8.9
10.6
5.6
5.7
5.4
27.9
28.5
27.3
vs Stronger (24)
9.9
8.9
10.7
5.7
5.5
5.8
28.7
29.7
27.8
vs Similar (6)
9.7
9.0
10.3
5.2
6.3
4.0
24.7
24.0
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
43%
50%
87%
79%
94%
90%
86%
94%
% under line
53%
57%
50%
13%
21%
6%
10%
14%
6%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.1
10.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
31.1
30.8
31.4
vs Stronger (23)
9.8
9.0
10.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
29.5
29.5
29.5
vs Similar (26)
8.3
7.0
9.5
3.1
3.2
2.9
32.1
31.4
32.8
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
8.0
8.0
-
37.0
37.0
-
% over line
43%
38%
50%
48%
54%
42%
97%
100%
93%
% under line
57%
62%
50%
52%
46%
58%
3%
0%
7%
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Parma
10.5
Bari
10.3
Venezia
10.3
Ternana
10.1
Palermo
10.1
Cremonese
10.0
Modena
10.0
Spezia
9.9
Brescia
9.9
Lecco
9.8
Pisa
9.7
Cosenza
9.5
Reggiana
9.5
Ascoli
9.3
Como
9.3
Cittadella
9.1
FeralpiSalo
9.1
Catanzaro
8.8
Sampdoria
8.6
Sudtirol
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.5
Pisa
6.3
Cittadella
5.9
Modena
5.9
Spezia
5.8
Ascoli
5.8
Sudtirol
5.7
Sampdoria
5.6
Lecco
5.6
Catanzaro
5.5
Reggiana
5.5
Bari
5.4
Parma
5.4
Cremonese
5.3
FeralpiSalo
5.2
Como
5.2
Palermo
5.1
Venezia
5.1
Brescia
5.1
Ternana
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
32.2
Ascoli
32.1
Reggiana
30.4
Sudtirol
29.9
Palermo
29.6
Sampdoria
29.6
Bari
29.6
Como
29.5
Catanzaro
29.4
Spezia
29.3
Pisa
29.1
Modena
28.8
Cosenza
28.3
Brescia
28.1
Lecco
27.9
Cremonese
27.7
Ternana
27.5
Parma
27.3
FeralpiSalo
27.2
Venezia
25.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.3%
Under 9.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.7%
Under 3.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.6%
Under 21.5
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lecco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (24)
0.42
0.62
0.18
0.73
0.62
0.54
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.81
0.56
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.79
0.50
0.62
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.47
1.29
0.43
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lecco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lecco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.27
0.71
1.21
0.38
1.31
vs Stronger (24)
0.54
1.12
0.73
1.00
0.38
1.23
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.83
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.62
0.69
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.79
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.60
0.43
0.71
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lecco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lecco
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nicolò Buso26%
Andrija Novakovich13%
Franco Lepore12%
Artur Ioniță11%
Mattia Tordini11%
Umberto Eusepi8%
Lorenzo Di Stefano8%
Roberto Inglese7%
Alessandro Sersanti6%
Giovanni Crociata6%
Mats Lemmens6%
Alessandro Bianconi4%
Alessandro Caporale3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Mario Ierardi0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Luca Giudici0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Duccio Degli Innocenti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Marrone50%
Alessandro Sersanti39%
Mats Lemmens39%
Giovanni Crociata36%
Eugenio Lamanna33%
Mattia Tordini33%
Vittorio Parigini31%
Duccio Degli Innocenti28%
Mario Ierardi25%
Alessandro Caporale23%
Davide Guglielmotti23%
Alessandro Bianconi17%
Elio Capradossi17%
Matteo Battistini15%
Franco Lepore15%
Marco Frigerio14%
Giorgio Galli11%
Vedran Celjak11%
Andrija Novakovich11%
Eddie Salcedo10%
Gabriel Lunetta10%
Artur Ioniță8%
Umberto Eusepi8%
Lorenzo Di Stefano8%
Nicolò Buso6%
Roberto Inglese0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Luca Giudici0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lorenzo Di Stefano15%
Franco Lepore15%
Alessandro Caporale13%
Mario Ierardi12%
Luca Giudici9%
Artur Ioniță8%
Nicolò Buso6%
Giovanni Crociata6%
Mats Lemmens6%
Duccio Degli Innocenti3%
Alessandro Sersanti3%
Andrija Novakovich3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Umberto Eusepi0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Roberto Inglese0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Alessandro Bianconi0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Mattia Tordini0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nicolò Buso29%
Andrija Novakovich16%
Lorenzo Di Stefano15%
Mario Ierardi12%
Giovanni Crociata8%
Duccio Degli Innocenti7%
Franco Lepore6%
Alessandro Sersanti6%
Artur Ioniță6%
Alessandro Caporale3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Umberto Eusepi0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Roberto Inglese0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Luca Giudici0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Alessandro Bianconi0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Mattia Tordini0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Cittadella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Filippo Pittarello14%
Alessio Vita11%
Stefano Negro10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Tommy Maistrello9%
Enrico Baldini9%
Francesco Amatucci7%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Simone Branca6%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Nicola Pavan3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simone Branca47%
Federico Giraudo37%
Stefano Negro35%
Alessandro Salvi34%
Edoardo Sottini29%
Enrico Baldini27%
Lorenzo Carissoni27%
Matteo Angeli25%
Francesco Amatucci18%
Andrea Tessiore17%
Giuseppe Carriero13%
Valerio Mastrantonio12%
Filippo Pittarello11%
Alessio Rizza11%
Domenico Frare10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Nicola Pavan10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Alessio Vita9%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Luca Maniero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alessio Vita11%
Federico Giraudo11%
Alessandro Salvi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Lorenzo Carissoni9%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Filippo Pittarello9%
Simone Branca6%
Stefano Negro5%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Valerio Mastrantonio4%
Nicola Pavan3%
Tommy Maistrello3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Giuseppe Carriero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filippo Pittarello23%
Luca Pandolfi15%
Stefano Negro10%
Alessio Vita9%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Andrea Magrassi3%
Claudio Cassano3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Simone Branca0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Sampdoria
Brescia
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Modena
Reggiana
Pisa
Bari
Ternana
Spezia
Ascoli
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