This opponent (Venezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Venezia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.20
2.20
1.47
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
2.13
1.33
2.38
1.62
1.86
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
1.07
2.00
1.29
1.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.5%
@ 1.78-2.3%
Under 2.5
49.5%
@ 1.99+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
0-1
11.2%
0-2
11.2%
1-2 ✓
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
0-3
6.8%
1-3
5.9%
1-0
4.8%
Lecco goals ↓
Venezia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
11%
11%
6.8%
3.1%
1
4.8%
12%
9.8%
5.9%
2.7%
2
2.6%
4.7%
4.3%
2.6%
1.2%
3
0.8%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lecco goals (down), columns = Venezia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Lecco is 1.22 points worse than Venezia in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Lecco is 0.82 goals worse than Venezia in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Lecco is 0.83 goals worse than Venezia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.95 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Lecco is 5.1 percentage points worse than Venezia in terms of average possession (47% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lecco
For 6.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Venezia
For 5.4 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
9.6
8.6
10.6
5.7
5.7
5.7
28.1
28.7
27.5
vs Stronger (27)
9.6
8.5
10.6
5.8
5.5
6.1
28.9
29.8
28.0
vs Similar (6)
9.7
9.0
10.3
5.2
6.3
4.0
24.7
24.0
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
38%
53%
88%
81%
94%
91%
88%
94%
% under line
55%
62%
47%
12%
19%
6%
9%
12%
6%
This opponent (Venezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Venezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.9
10.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
24.6
24.2
25.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
9.6
9.1
10.2
2.7
2.8
2.5
23.4
24.4
22.2
vs Weaker (24)
10.5
10.8
10.2
3.3
3.0
3.5
25.9
24.0
27.8
% over line
64%
65%
62%
46%
46%
46%
73%
71%
75%
% under line
36%
35%
38%
54%
54%
54%
27%
29%
25%
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Venezia
10.4
Ternana
10.4
Parma
10.3
Palermo
10.1
Cremonese
9.9
Brescia
9.9
Modena
9.8
Bari
9.8
Spezia
9.7
Lecco
9.6
Cosenza
9.6
Pisa
9.6
FeralpiSalo
9.5
Ascoli
9.4
Reggiana
9.4
Como
9.3
Catanzaro
9.1
Cittadella
9.0
Sampdoria
8.7
Sudtirol
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.3
Pisa
6.3
Cittadella
5.9
Spezia
5.8
Modena
5.8
Lecco
5.7
Sampdoria
5.6
Ascoli
5.6
Bari
5.5
Sudtirol
5.5
Reggiana
5.4
Catanzaro
5.4
Parma
5.4
Cremonese
5.3
FeralpiSalo
5.2
Palermo
5.2
Como
5.1
Brescia
5.0
Venezia
5.0
Ternana
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
32.2
Ascoli
31.8
Sampdoria
30.2
Sudtirol
30.1
Reggiana
30.0
Spezia
29.5
Bari
29.4
Como
29.2
Palermo
29.0
Catanzaro
28.9
Pisa
28.6
Modena
28.5
Brescia
28.1
Lecco
28.1
Cosenza
27.5
Cremonese
27.4
Ternana
27.3
Parma
27.0
FeralpiSalo
26.6
Venezia
25.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.5%
Under 9.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.4%
Under 3.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.4%
Under 21.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lecco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.36
0.64
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (24)
0.50
0.62
0.27
0.64
0.69
0.62
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Venezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
1.13
0.53
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.47
1.12
0.62
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.47
1.14
0.43
0.38
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lecco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lecco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.13
0.57
0.93
0.38
1.31
vs Stronger (24)
0.46
0.96
0.55
0.64
0.38
1.23
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.83
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Venezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
1.07
0.93
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.87
1.25
1.00
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.60
0.86
0.86
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lecco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Venezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lecco
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nicolò Buso26%
Andrija Novakovich13%
Franco Lepore12%
Artur Ioniță11%
Mattia Tordini11%
Umberto Eusepi8%
Lorenzo Di Stefano8%
Roberto Inglese7%
Alessandro Sersanti6%
Giovanni Crociata6%
Mats Lemmens6%
Alessandro Bianconi4%
Alessandro Caporale3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Mario Ierardi0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Luca Giudici0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Duccio Degli Innocenti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Marrone50%
Alessandro Sersanti39%
Mats Lemmens39%
Giovanni Crociata36%
Eugenio Lamanna33%
Mattia Tordini33%
Vittorio Parigini31%
Duccio Degli Innocenti28%
Mario Ierardi25%
Alessandro Caporale23%
Davide Guglielmotti23%
Alessandro Bianconi17%
Elio Capradossi17%
Matteo Battistini15%
Franco Lepore15%
Marco Frigerio14%
Giorgio Galli11%
Vedran Celjak11%
Andrija Novakovich11%
Eddie Salcedo10%
Gabriel Lunetta10%
Artur Ioniță8%
Umberto Eusepi8%
Lorenzo Di Stefano8%
Nicolò Buso6%
Roberto Inglese0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Luca Giudici0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lorenzo Di Stefano15%
Franco Lepore15%
Alessandro Caporale13%
Mario Ierardi12%
Luca Giudici9%
Artur Ioniță8%
Nicolò Buso6%
Giovanni Crociata6%
Mats Lemmens6%
Duccio Degli Innocenti3%
Alessandro Sersanti3%
Andrija Novakovich3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Umberto Eusepi0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Roberto Inglese0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Alessandro Bianconi0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Mattia Tordini0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nicolò Buso29%
Andrija Novakovich16%
Lorenzo Di Stefano15%
Mario Ierardi12%
Giovanni Crociata8%
Duccio Degli Innocenti7%
Franco Lepore6%
Alessandro Sersanti6%
Artur Ioniță6%
Alessandro Caporale3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Umberto Eusepi0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Roberto Inglese0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Luca Giudici0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Alessandro Bianconi0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Mattia Tordini0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Venezia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joel Pohjanpalo43%
Christian Gytkjær24%
Gianluca Busio17%
Tanner Tessmann15%
Dennis Johnsen14%
Nicholas Pierini12%
Giorgio Altare11%
Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason9%
Jay Idzes7%
Ali Dembele6%
Mikael Ellertsson5%
Marco Olivieri4%
Francesco Zampano3%
Antonio Candela2%
Denis Cheryshev0%
Jesse Joronen0%
Michael Svoboda0%
Maximilian Ullmann0%
Mato Jajalo0%
Magnus Kofod Andersen0%
Marin Šverko0%
Nunzio Lella0%
Bruno Bertinato0%
Marco Modolo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maximilian Ullmann25%
Marin Šverko24%
Giorgio Altare20%
Tanner Tessmann20%
Dennis Johnsen19%
Ali Dembele19%
Francesco Zampano18%
Antonio Candela18%
Nunzio Lella17%
Mikael Ellertsson14%
Mato Jajalo13%
Denis Cheryshev11%
Bruno Bertinato11%
Jay Idzes10%
Gianluca Busio10%
Jesse Joronen6%
Joel Pohjanpalo5%
Michael Svoboda4%
Magnus Kofod Andersen4%
Marco Olivieri4%
Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason3%
Christian Gytkjær2%
Nicholas Pierini2%
Marco Modolo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dennis Johnsen24%
Nicholas Pierini14%
Francesco Zampano13%
Michael Svoboda13%
Gianluca Busio12%
Joel Pohjanpalo11%
Magnus Kofod Andersen9%
Giorgio Altare9%
Mikael Ellertsson8%
Antonio Candela8%
Tanner Tessmann7%
Christian Gytkjær5%
Marco Olivieri4%
Nunzio Lella4%
Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason3%
Denis Cheryshev0%
Jesse Joronen0%
Maximilian Ullmann0%
Mato Jajalo0%
Marin Šverko0%
Bruno Bertinato0%
Marco Modolo0%
Jay Idzes0%
Ali Dembele0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joel Pohjanpalo30%
Nicholas Pierini14%
Tanner Tessmann12%
Christian Gytkjær10%
Gianluca Busio7%
Giorgio Altare6%
Dennis Johnsen5%
Nunzio Lella4%
Denis Cheryshev0%
Jesse Joronen0%
Michael Svoboda0%
Maximilian Ullmann0%
Mato Jajalo0%
Magnus Kofod Andersen0%
Marin Šverko0%
Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason0%
Antonio Candela0%
Francesco Zampano0%
Bruno Bertinato0%
Marco Modolo0%
Jay Idzes0%
Marco Olivieri0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Ali Dembele0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →