Lechia Gdansk and Pogoń Siedlce are set to face off in the Poland: I Liga on August 21. Recent form has seen both teams come off draws, with Lechia Gdansk drawing 2-2 against Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce also drawing 2-2 against Polonia Bytom. This high-scoring match is expected to yield 3.2 goals on average, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 10.7%. Lechia Gdansk's home form against weaker opponents has seen them concede 3 goals on average, while scoring none. In contrast, Pogoń Siedlce have scored 1 goal on average when playing away against stronger opponents, but have conceded 1.62 goals. The model's selection is a Home win, with a 55% chance of occurring. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 selection, which has an 84% chance of happening. The probabilities for a Home win, Draw, and Away win are 55%, 23%, and 22% respectively.
Results analysis
Lechia Gdansk’s recent win extends their home run, and the Pythia model’s favourite, Home win, proved correct as the final score was 1-0. The model had a 55 % chance of a home victory, and its predicted total of 3.2 goals was close to the actual 1-0 result. Every suggested pick landed: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5 %, Under 7.5 at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.6 %, Under 6.5 at 95.4 %, Home +2 handicap at 91.1 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.3 %, and Under 5.5 at 89.3 %. The selections largely came in, confirming the model’s accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lechia Gdansk win✓ Hit
55.0%
Avg Implied 39.6% · @ 2.30
Edge
+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.33
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.37
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.77
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.48
William Hil
3.40
Pogoń Siedlce win✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.72
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Pinnacle
2.78
Superbet
2.77
BetVictor
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lechia Gdansk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.77
1.75
1.69
1.43
1.86
vs Stronger (6)
1.83
1.50
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.67
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.71
2.09
1.55
1.20
1.90
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
2.67
0.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
3% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Siedlce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.43
1.12
1.31
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (24)
0.96
1.46
1.15
1.15
0.73
1.82
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.1%
@ 1.23+8.9%
Under 1.5
15.9%
@ 3.72-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
3.93
888Sport
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.3%
@ 1.78+10.0%
Under 2.5
37.7%
@ 1.95-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.1%
@ 2.92+8.5%
Under 3.5
59.9%
@ 1.35-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.10
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
10Bet
2.95
Under
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.6%
@ 1.62+4.7%
No
38.4%
@ 2.14-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.68
William Hil
1.62
Betfair
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Betano
1.62
No
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.18
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 6.11+3.4%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.31+4.4%
2-0
8.1%@ 11.41+4.2%
1-0 ✓
7.1%@ 8.40+1.8%
3-1
6.5%@ 16.16+3.8%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.36+2.0%
1-2
5.9%@ 9.30+1.1%
3-0
5.4%@ 21.54+3.4%
Lechia Gdansk goals ↓
Pogoń Siedlce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.9%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
1
7.1%
11%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.8%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
5.4%
6.5%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.7%
3.3%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lechia Gdansk goals (down), columns = Pogoń Siedlce goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Lechia Gdansk is 0.17 points worse than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Lechia Gdansk and Pogoń Siedlce are level in goals scored per game (both 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Lechia Gdansk is 0.83 goals worse than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lechia Gdansk or Draw✓ Hit
78.4%
Avg Implied 67.0% · @ 1.38
Edge
+11.5%
55%
23%
22%
covers Lechia Gdansk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
SBO
1.38
Lechia Gdansk or Pogoń Siedlce✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
+3.8%
55%
23%
22%
covers Lechia Gdansk + Pogoń Siedlce
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce✗ Miss
45.0%
Avg Implied 60.3% · @ 1.53
Edge
-15.3%
55%
23%
22%
covers Draw + Pogoń Siedlce
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.6%
@ 1.22+10.8%
Under
13.4%
@ 3.82-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.96
1xBet
3.90
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.7%
@ 2.13+16.2%
Under
40.3%
@ 1.64-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.6%
@ 4.62+12.6%
Under
67.4%
@ 1.16-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
Lechia Gdansk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 10.50+5.5%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.04-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.1%
@ 1.28-2.4%
Under
29.9%
@ 3.37+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.54
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.35
1xBet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.0%
@ 2.38-4.9%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.51+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
Unibet
2.43
BetVictor
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 5.57-4.4%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.11+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.70
Superbet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 12.25-4.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lechia Gdansk, so a minus line means Lechia Gdansk give that many goals of a start and Pogoń Siedlce receive them. At -1, Lechia Gdansk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lechia Gdansk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lechia Gdansk)Actual: Pogoń Siedlce
Lechia Gdansk -2
16.3%
@ 8.42+5.9%
Draw -2
17.0%
@ 5.98+2.4%
Pogoń Siedlce +2
66.7%
@ 1.16-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.25
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Lechia Gdansk)Actual: Draw
Lechia Gdansk -1
33.3%
@ 4.33+13.0%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.96-0.5%
Pogoń Siedlce +1
45.0%
@ 1.52-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Handicap +1 (Lechia Gdansk)Actual: Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk +1
78.4%
@ 1.38+15.0%
Draw +1
12.6%
@ 4.35-7.5%
Pogoń Siedlce -1
8.9%
@ 5.31-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
3.60
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.60
Handicap +2 (Lechia Gdansk)Actual: Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk +2
91.1%
@ 1.12+13.2%
Draw +2
6.1%
@ 6.67-7.0%
Pogoń Siedlce -2
2.8%
@ 9.75-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
9.80
Marathonbet
6.45
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lechia Gdansk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.81
0.94
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.95
1.00
0.82
0.30
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Siedlce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.44
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (24)
0.46
0.54
0.54
0.31
0.36
0.82
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
71.8%
@ 1.32+2.2%
Under 0.5
28.2%
@ 3.03-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.12
1xBet
3.12
William Hil
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.54-3.1%
Under 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.45+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
Marathonbet
2.53
1xBet
2.53
Under
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 6.06-4.2%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.10+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.85
Under
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.1%
@ 1.91-5.3%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.79+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 5.76-6.3%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.10+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
5.55
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 14.25-5.1%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.2%
@ 2.06+2.4%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.68-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 6.60-1.0%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.07+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 16.00-3.5%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lechia Gdansk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.80
0.94
0.75
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.76
1.09
0.73
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogoń Siedlce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.62
0.88
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (24)
0.50
0.92
0.62
0.85
0.36
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.1%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.10
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.6%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.1%
1.23
Unibet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
+8.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
78.4%
1.38
Betano
1.44
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
SBO
1.38
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.4%
1.38
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
+15.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.8%
1.12
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
1.32
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.34
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
1.28
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-2.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lechia Gdansk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tomáš Bobček47%
Ivan Zhelyzko23%
Rifet Kapić16%
Dawid Kurminowski13%
Camilo Mena13%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Mohamed Awadalla12%
Bogdan Viunnyk12%
Tomasz Neugebauer9%
Bujar Pllana6%
Matej Rodin4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Matúš Vojtko3%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Elias Olsson0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miłosz Kałahur33%
Ivan Zhelyzko30%
Rifet Kapić25%
Elias Olsson25%
Mohamed Awadalla25%
Bujar Pllana24%
Camilo Mena19%
Matúš Vojtko19%
Tomasz Neugebauer19%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Maksym Diachuk15%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Matej Rodin12%
Tomasz Wójtowicz9%
Dawid Kurminowski9%
Alex Paulsen8%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Bartłomiej Kłudka6%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Camilo Mena23%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Aleksandar Ćirković17%
Ivan Zhelyzko17%
Anton Tsarenko14%
Elias Olsson12%
Matej Rodin12%
Alvis Jaunzems11%
Matúš Vojtko10%
Rifet Kapić9%
Kacper Sezonienko6%
Tomasz Neugebauer6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Bogdan Viunnyk0%
Bujar Pllana0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tomáš Bobček57%
Aleksandar Ćirković21%
Camilo Mena13%
Ivan Zhelyzko10%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Matej Rodin8%
Bujar Pllana6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Matúš Vojtko0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Rifet Kapić0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Maksym Diachuk0%
Elias Olsson0%
Kacper Sezonienko0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Neugebauer0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Lechia Gdansk's squad is €21m more valuable than Pogoń Siedlce's (€22m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Lechia Gdansk's attack is €14m more valuable than Pogoń Siedlce's (€15m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Lechia Gdansk's midfield is €5m more valuable than Pogoń Siedlce's (€5m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Lechia Gdansk's defence is €2m more valuable than Pogoń Siedlce's (€3m vs €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów