Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań Result & Analysis

Date: 31/07/2026

Time: 18:30

Final 0-3

Lechia Gdansk

47%

25%

28%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Warta Poznań

Poland: I Liga

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Lechia Gdansk host Warta Poznań in the Poland: I Liga match on July 31, 2026. Warta Poznań's recent form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning streak, but they were held to a 2-2 draw in their last match against Podbeskidzie. Lechia Gdansk, on the other hand, are coming off a draw against Podbeskidzie.

The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, but the most likely total number of goals is 3. The model's selection is the Home win, with a probability of 47%. The away side's away form against stronger opponents has seen them concede an average of 2.57 goals and score 0.86.

The model's selection for the match is the Home win, with a probability of 47%, the Draw with a probability of 25%, and the Away win with a probability of 28%. The model's selection is the Home win at 47%. The model's selection for the Over 1.5 goals is a hit, with a probability of 84.3% and an edge of 7%.

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Warta Poznań secured a 0-3 away win over Lechia Gdansk, extending their 2-game winning run. The result marks a surprise, as the pre-match favourite, Lechia Gdansk, failed to come through. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 47%. Meanwhile, the model's call on the total goals was correct, as the final score stayed under the predicted 3.2 expected goals. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.3%, as the final score featured three goals. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, while the model's selection of Home win was wrong.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lechia Gdansk win✗ Miss

47.1%

Avg Implied 36.0% · @ 2.53

Edge

+11.1%

Best 5 market prices

Bet365

2.88

Marathonbet

2.74

Betfair

2.63

SBO

2.62

BetVictor

2.55

Draw✗ Miss

24.7%

Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.45

Edge

-1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.80

Marathonbet

3.56

1xBet

3.54

Betano

3.50

Betfair

3.50

Warta Poznań win✓ Hit

28.2%

Avg Implied 37.5% · @ 2.43

Edge

-9.4%

Best 5 market prices

10Bet

2.70

Pinnacle

2.69

Superbet

2.60

Dafabet

2.60

Betano

2.52

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Lechia Gdansk

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.4

Avg scored

1.3

Avg conceded

2.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.70	1.70	1.88	1.31	1.50	2.14
vs Stronger (9)	1.89	1.67	1.75	1.25	2.00	2.00
vs Similar (21)	1.62	1.71	1.92	1.33	1.22	2.22
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	10% (-15pp vs league)

This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warta Poznań

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.8

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

2.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.73	1.67	0.67	1.60	0.80	1.73
vs Stronger (30)	0.73	1.67	0.67	1.60	0.80	1.73
vs Similar (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	23% (-2pp vs league)

This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

84.3%

@ 1.19+6.7%

Under 1.5

15.7%

@ 4.12-6.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

1.22

Betano

1.22

Unibet

1.21

Betfair

1.20

Pinnacle

1.20

Under

Bet365

4.50

Pinnacle

4.48

BetVictor

4.33

Superbet

4.20

Marathonbet

4.15

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

62.6%

@ 1.66+6.7%

Under 2.5

37.4%

@ 2.11-6.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

1.70

Dafabet

1.70

Pinnacle

1.69

Unibet

1.68

Betano

1.67

Under

Bet365

2.20

Pinnacle

2.19

Superbet

2.15

Marathonbet

2.12

Dafabet

2.12

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

40.4%

@ 2.63+5.2%

Under 3.5

59.6%

@ 1.43-5.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

2.75

Betfair

2.75

Unibet

2.70

Pinnacle

2.67

BetVictor

2.63

Under

Bet365

1.50

Pinnacle

1.47

Superbet

1.46

Betano

1.45

BetVictor

1.44

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

64.2%

@ 1.54+4.5%

35.8%

@ 2.29-4.5%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Unibet

1.57

William Hil

1.57

Betfair

1.57

10Bet

1.55

Betano

1.55

Bet365

2.38

BetVictor

2.38

Superbet

2.32

1xBet

2.32

Betano

2.30

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

11.1%@ 6.36+4.1%

2-1

9.3%@ 8.78+4.2%

1-2

7.0%@ 8.51+1.8%

2-0

6.7%@ 13.31+3.3%

2-2

6.5%@ 10.78+2.3%

1-0

6.3%@ 9.63+1.6%

3-1

5.7%@ 17.27+3.1%

0-0

5.0%@ 12.25+1.3%

Lechia Gdansk goals ↓

	Warta Poznań goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.0%	4.5%	3.8%	1.8%	0.6%
1	6.3%	11%	7.0%	3.3%	1.1%
2	6.7%	9.3%	6.5%	3.0%	1.0%
3	4.1%	5.7%	4.0%	1.8%	0.6%
4	1.9%	2.6%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lechia Gdansk goals (down), columns = Warta Poznań goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Lechia Gdansk

1.96

Arka Gdynia

1.58

ŁKS Łódź

1.57

Ruch Chorzów

1.56

Chrobry Głogów

1.56

Miedz Legnica

1.53

Polonia Warszawa

1.51

Nieciecza

1.44

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.44

Polonia Bytom

1.38

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.32

Odra Opole

1.29

Stal Rzeszów

1.26

Pogoń Siedlce

1.06

Stal Mielec

1.06

Unia Skierniewice

0.82

Podbeskidzie

0.77

Warta Poznań

0.70

Lechia Gdansk is 1.26 points better than Warta Poznań in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 0.70).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Lechia Gdansk

2.14

Arka Gdynia

1.72

Polonia Bytom

1.65

ŁKS Łódź

1.63

Ruch Chorzów

1.59

Nieciecza

1.58

Polonia Warszawa

1.54

Miedz Legnica

1.53

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.50

Stal Mielec

1.50

Stal Rzeszów

1.44

Chrobry Głogów

1.39

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.32

Odra Opole

1.00

Pogoń Siedlce

0.97

Unia Skierniewice

0.90

Podbeskidzie

0.84

Warta Poznań

0.76

Lechia Gdansk is 1.38 goals better than Warta Poznań in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 0.76).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Lechia Gdansk

1.04

Chrobry Głogów

1.08

Odra Opole

1.18

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.18

Pogoń Siedlce

1.26

Arka Gdynia

1.29

Ruch Chorzów

1.35

ŁKS Łódź

1.40

Nieciecza

1.41

Polonia Bytom

1.47

Polonia Warszawa

1.49

Miedz Legnica

1.56

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.59

Stal Rzeszów

1.76

Stal Mielec

1.82

Unia Skierniewice

2.46

Podbeskidzie

2.64

Warta Poznań

2.92

Lechia Gdansk is 1.88 goals better than Warta Poznań in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 2.92).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	84.3%	1.19	10Bet 1.22	Betano 1.22	Unibet 1.21	Betfair 1.20	Pinnacle 1.20	+6.7%	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (27)

€26m

AG (29)

€9m

NIE (25)

€6m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (12)

€18m

AG (9)

€3m

NIE (10)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (1)

€4m

AG (8)

€4m

NIE (7)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (14)

€5m

AG (12)

€3m

NIE (8)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań · H/A from LG

Date	H/A	Game	Score
19/03/23	A	Warta Poznań Vs LG	2-0
03/09/22	H	LG Vs Warta Poznań	0-0

Lechia Gdansk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/07/26	H	LG Vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	0-3
23/05/26	A	Nieciecza Vs LG	3-2
17/05/26	H	LG Vs Legia Warszawa	1-2
09/05/26	A	Widzew Łódź Vs LG	3-1
04/05/26	A	Radomiak Radom Vs LG	3-1
25/04/26	H	LG Vs Raków Częstochowa	1-2
20/04/26	H	LG Vs Piast Gliwice	1-1
10/04/26	A	Wisla Plock Vs LG	1-0
06/04/26	H	LG Vs Korona Kielce	4-2
21/03/26	H	LG Vs Pogon Szczecin	2-1

Warta Poznań

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
24/07/26	A	Polonia Bytom Vs WP	4-3
25/05/25	A	Pogoń Siedlce Vs WP	2-1
18/05/25	H	WP Vs Odra Opole	1-0
11/05/25	A	Chrobry Głogów Vs WP	2-1
03/05/25	H	WP Vs Ruch Chorzów	0-2
26/04/25	H	WP Vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg	0-1
21/04/25	A	Miedz Legnica Vs WP	3-2
11/04/25	H	WP Vs Górnik Łęczna	0-2
08/04/25	A	Arka Gdynia Vs WP	3-0
05/04/25	H	WP Vs Wisla Krakow	0-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Lechia Gdansk

Poland: I Liga

Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLLLL	1.30
Home	WDLLL	1.65
Away	LLLLL	0.92

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	38%	50%	25%
AVG goals	3.60	3.46	3.75
Over 1.5 %	92%	88%	96%
Over 2.5 %	72%	65%	79%
Over 3.5 %	44%	35%	54%
Scored	1.74	1.92	1.54
Conceded	1.86	1.54	2.21
BTTS	72%	69%	75%
Clean Sheet	12%	19%	4%
Corners	9.88	10.48	9.25
Cards	4.60	4.48	4.74

Warta Poznań

Poland: I Liga

Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWLL	0.84
Home	LLLLW	1.08
Away	LLLLL	0.60

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	22%	32%	12%
AVG goals	2.30	2.24	2.36
Over 1.5 %	60%	52%	68%
Over 2.5 %	42%	36%	48%
Over 3.5 %	18%	16%	20%
Scored	0.76	0.92	0.60
Conceded	1.54	1.32	1.76
BTTS	40%	44%	36%
Clean Sheet	24%	20%	28%
Corners	8.27	7.25	9.43
Cards	3.46	2.57	4.50

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	4	10	75%	2.5	6	1	+5	1.8	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.2	-
2	Stal Mielec	4	8	50%	2.0	11	7	+4	4.5	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	1.8	-
3	Chrobry Głogów	4	7	50%	1.8	8	4	+4	3.0	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	-
4	Miedz Legnica	4	7	50%	1.8	6	2	+4	2.0	75%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.5	-
5	Polonia Warszawa	4	7	50%	1.8	5	3	+2	2.0	50%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	0.8	-
6	ŁKS Łódź	4	7	50%	1.8	6	5	+1	2.8	100%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	-
7	Arka Gdynia	3	6	67%	2.0	5	2	+3	2.3	67%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	9	3	4	3	1.7	0.7	-
8	Warta Poznań	4	6	50%	1.5	9	8	+1	4.2	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	2.0	-
9	Nieciecza	4	6	50%	1.5	6	5	+1	2.8	100%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	2	2	2	1.5	1.2	-
10	Odra Opole	4	6	50%	1.5	5	5	+0	2.5	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
11	Pogoń Siedlce	4	5	25%	1.2	5	5	+0	2.5	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
12	Podbeskidzie	4	4	0%	1.0	7	7	+0	3.5	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.8	-
13	Polonia Bytom	4	4	25%	1.0	9	12	-3	5.2	100%	100%	75%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	3.0	-
14	Ruch Chorzów	4	4	25%	1.0	2	5	-3	1.8	75%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	1.2	-
15	Puszcza Niepołomice	3	3	33%	1.0	3	3	+0	2.0	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
16	Unia Skierniewice	4	3	25%	0.8	4	8	-4	3.0	100%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	-
17	Stal Rzeszów	4	2	0%	0.5	3	11	-8	3.5	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	2.8	-
18	Lechia Gdansk	4	1	0%	0.2	2	9	-7	2.8	75%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	26	18	4	5	0.5	2.2	-

Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

← all matches

Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Lechia Gdansk

Warta Poznań

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Lechia Gdansk

Warta Poznań

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature