Leeds and Brentford face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities show a 38% chance of Brentford triumph, 33% for Leeds, and 28% for a draw. The expected total is 2.7 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 26% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% probability.
Leeds, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.9 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Brentford, on the road, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. Both sides have recent two-game winning runs, Leeds ending 2-0 over Nottingham Forest, Brentford finishing 6-1 against Birmingham.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.7% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4% with a 4% edge), and Under 5.5 (95.1% with a 3% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, fell short as Leeds and Brentford settled for a 1-1 draw, leaving the model’s call wrong. Leeds, fresh from a draw, had been on a mixed run, while Brentford remained unbeaten in five games. The model had given the away side a 38% chance of victory, but the result was a stalemate. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.2%, and Under 5.5 at 95.1%. The match confirmed the model’s predictions on total-goal outcomes, even as the favourite’s win was missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leeds win✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied 36.5% · @ 2.61
Edge
-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.67
Dafabet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
Draw✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.36
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.46
Dafabet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Brentford win✗ Miss
37.6%
Avg Implied 35.1% · @ 2.71
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.82
Pinnacle
2.78
Marathonbet
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leeds
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.07
1.58
0.83
1.28
1.22
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
0.00
2.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.57
0.96
1.90
0.50
1.31
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.17
1.62
1.00
1.59
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
1.00
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.14
1.67
1.00
1.70
1.30
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.33
-
-
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
@ 1.28+2.2%
Under 1.5
24.1%
@ 3.58-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Unibet
1.28
BetVictor
1.28
Under
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.96
Betfair
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.92+0.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.91-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
2.00
SBO
1.99
Betfair
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
@ 3.25-1.1%
Under 3.5
72.0%
@ 1.33+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.5%
@ 1.70+0.4%
No
44.5%
@ 2.09-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
2.00
William Hil
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Unibet
1.67
Betano
1.67
No
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%@ 6.14+5.9%
1-2
8.5%@ 9.69+3.6%
0-1
8.3%@ 8.89+3.0%
0-0
8.1%@ 10.37+3.6%
2-1
8.0%@ 9.22+2.9%
1-0
7.7%@ 8.51+2.2%
0-2
6.5%@ 13.30+3.0%
2-0
5.8%@ 12.88+2.2%
Leeds goals ↓
Brentford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
8.3%
6.5%
3.0%
1.0%
1
7.7%
14%
8.5%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.8%
8.0%
5.5%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.5%
3.5%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leeds goals (down), columns = Brentford goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Leeds is 0.16 points worse than Brentford in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Leeds is 0.16 goals worse than Brentford in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Leeds is 0.11 goals worse than Brentford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Leeds is 1.8 percentage points worse than Brentford in terms of average possession (46% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leeds
For 3.6 · Against 6.9 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brentford
For 4.9 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 8.9 · Total 18.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leeds
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.6
9.3
3.5
3.4
3.6
22.2
21.3
22.9
vs Stronger (9)
8.7
9.8
7.8
4.1
3.2
4.8
22.2
21.5
22.8
vs Similar (34)
9.4
9.7
9.2
3.6
3.8
3.4
22.5
22.3
22.7
vs Weaker (7)
10.7
9.0
11.4
2.7
1.0
3.4
20.7
13.0
23.8
% over line
48%
50%
46%
44%
45%
43%
54%
50%
57%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
56%
55%
57%
46%
50%
43%
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
8.9
10.7
3.6
3.4
3.8
19.8
20.1
19.6
vs Stronger (9)
10.3
8.8
11.6
4.3
5.0
3.8
18.2
19.5
17.2
vs Similar (37)
9.9
8.9
10.9
3.6
3.1
4.2
20.4
20.2
20.5
vs Weaker (4)
8.5
-
8.5
2.2
-
2.2
18.2
-
18.2
% over line
60%
50%
68%
48%
45%
50%
34%
41%
29%
% under line
40%
50%
32%
52%
55%
50%
66%
59%
71%
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Aston Villa
9.4
Everton
9.3
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Hull
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Brentford
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.8
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.8
Sunderland
22.7
Brighton
22.3
Leeds
22.2
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Manchester United
21.7
Everton
21.6
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
19.9
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.2%
@ 1.71+4.0%
Under 9.5
41.8%
@ 2.03-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.79
Superbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.1%
@ 1.91+3.4%
Under 3.5
47.9%
@ 1.81-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.71
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
43.4%
@ 2.00-2.7%
Under 21.5
56.6%
@ 1.72+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.68
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leeds or Draw✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied 64.9% · @ 1.45
Edge
+5.4%
34%
28%
38%
covers Leeds + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Leeds or Brentford✗ Miss
71.4%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.30
Edge
-0.6%
34%
28%
38%
covers Leeds + Brentford
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Draw or Brentford✓ Hit
58.3%
Avg Implied 63.1% · @ 1.49
Edge
-4.8%
34%
28%
38%
covers Draw + Brentford
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.53
SBO
1.53
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leeds over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.0%
@ 1.26+2.1%
Under
24.0%
@ 3.58-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.82
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Leeds over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.8%
@ 2.30+1.1%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.58-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Marathonbet
2.36
Superbet
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Under
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Leeds over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 5.20-0.6%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.14+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Leeds over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 12.12-2.1%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
12.75
1xBet
12.70
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Brentford over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.0%
@ 1.28-3.8%
Under
31.0%
@ 3.42+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.70
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Brentford over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.7%
@ 2.39-6.5%
Under
67.3%
@ 1.54+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
Marathonbet
2.42
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.54
BetVictor
1.53
Brentford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 5.55-5.4%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.12+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.70
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Brentford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 12.50-4.4%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
12.25
Betano
10.25
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leeds, so a minus line means Leeds give that many goals of a start and Brentford receive them. At -1, Leeds must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leeds win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leeds)Actual: Brentford
Leeds -2
7.8%
@ 12.49+0.6%
Draw -2
12.8%
@ 7.29+0.4%
Brentford +2
79.4%
@ 1.13-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
21.00
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Draw
10Bet
10.00
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Unibet
6.75
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Handicap -1 (Leeds)Actual: Brentford
Leeds -1
20.6%
@ 5.33+3.5%
Draw -1
21.1%
@ 4.32+0.0%
Brentford +1
58.3%
@ 1.47-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Draw
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
Away
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Leeds)Actual: Leeds
Leeds +1
70.3%
@ 1.45+7.7%
Draw +1
17.1%
@ 4.36-3.7%
Brentford -1
12.6%
@ 5.47-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Away
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Superbet
5.30
Handicap +2 (Leeds)Actual: Leeds
Leeds +2
87.4%
@ 1.11+6.8%
Draw +2
8.6%
@ 7.37-3.6%
Brentford -2
4.0%
@ 12.32-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Draw
10Bet
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
10Bet
17.00
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
6.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leeds
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.27
0.75
0.25
0.39
0.28
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.09
0.90
0.00
0.54
0.15
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.77
0.46
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.64
0.83
0.50
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
-
-
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.1%
@ 1.38-0.0%
Under 0.5
31.9%
@ 2.96+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Under
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.11
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.72-2.1%
Under 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.43+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.86
Betano
2.85
Superbet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Under
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.5%
@ 6.91-3.1%
Under 2.5
89.5%
@ 1.08+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
7.00
1xBet
6.85
Under
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leeds over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.3%
@ 2.05-2.2%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.70+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Leeds over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 6.35-3.3%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.08+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Unibet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Leeds over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 16.38-3.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Brentford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.7%
@ 2.10-3.6%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.67+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Brentford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 6.64-3.5%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.07+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.95
Marathonbet
6.95
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Brentford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 17.25-4.0%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leeds
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.83
0.58
0.89
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.87
1.00
0.50
0.77
1.15
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.85
0.54
0.88
0.65
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
-
-
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.7%
@ 1.23-0.8%
Under 0.5
24.3%
@ 3.99+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Under
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.7%
@ 2.05-5.1%
Under 1.5
59.3%
@ 1.74+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.7%
@ 4.33-5.0%
Under 2.5
83.3%
@ 1.20+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.55
William Hil
4.40
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leeds over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.6%
@ 1.72-2.3%
Under
48.4%
@ 2.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
1.97
Leeds over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.7%
@ 4.53-3.9%
Under
83.3%
@ 1.17+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Leeds over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 11.75-4.2%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
Brentford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.3%
@ 1.75-3.0%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.99+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Brentford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 4.69-5.5%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.15+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.70
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Brentford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 12.12-5.2%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.02
Betfair
1.02
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.08
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.6%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.7%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
1.17
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.11
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.0%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.28
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Unibet
1.28
BetVictor
1.28
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
1.41
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.44
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
72.3%
1.34
1xBet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.0%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.4%
1.30
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-0.6%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
70.3%
1.45
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.44
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.3%
1.45
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.3%
1.42
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
+5.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leeds
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominic Calvert-Lewin33%
James Justin33%
Anton Stach33%
Ethan Ampadu0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Ampadu33%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin33%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ethan Ampadu0%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Ampadu0%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Brentford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Wilson33%
Mikkel Damsgaard33%
Nathan Collins33%
Vitaly Janelt33%
Aaron Hickey33%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaly Janelt67%
Nathan Collins33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mamadou Sangare67%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Yehor Yarmoliuk33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Nathan Collins0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Collins33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Leeds's squad is €138m less valuable than Brentford's (€427m vs €565m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Leeds's attack is €62m less valuable than Brentford's (€166m vs €228m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Leeds's midfield is €30m less valuable than Brentford's (€98m vs €128m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Leeds's defence is €46m less valuable than Brentford's (€163m vs €209m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Newcastle
Everton
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham