This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
0.67
2.67
0.87
2.00
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.67
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
2.48
0.60
2.85
0.85
2.08
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.52-8.0%
Under 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.56+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.8%
No
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.9%
0-1
11.7%
0-3
10.2%
1-2
9.1%
1-1
9.1%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
0-4 ✓
5.7%
Leeds goals ↓
Manchester City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
12%
14%
10%
5.7%
1
2.9%
9.1%
9.1%
6.7%
3.7%
2
1.2%
2.7%
3.0%
2.2%
1.2%
3
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leeds goals (down), columns = Manchester City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.45
Liverpool
2.42
Chelsea
1.95
Tottenham
1.87
Arsenal
1.82
Manchester United
1.53
West Ham
1.47
Leicester
1.37
Brighton
1.34
Wolves
1.34
Newcastle
1.29
Crystal Palace
1.26
Brentford
1.21
Aston Villa
1.18
Southampton
1.05
Everton
1.03
Leeds
1.00
Burnley
0.92
Watford
0.61
Norwich
0.58
Leeds is 1.45 points worse than Manchester City in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.61
Liverpool
2.47
Chelsea
2.00
Tottenham
1.82
Leicester
1.63
Arsenal
1.61
West Ham
1.58
Manchester United
1.50
Aston Villa
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.32
Brentford
1.26
Newcastle
1.16
Southampton
1.13
Everton
1.13
Brighton
1.11
Leeds
1.11
Wolves
1.00
Watford
0.89
Burnley
0.89
Norwich
0.61
Leeds is 1.50 goals worse than Manchester City in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 2.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liverpool
0.68
Manchester City
0.68
Chelsea
0.87
Tottenham
1.05
Wolves
1.13
Brighton
1.16
Crystal Palace
1.21
Arsenal
1.26
West Ham
1.34
Burnley
1.39
Aston Villa
1.42
Brentford
1.47
Manchester United
1.50
Leicester
1.55
Newcastle
1.63
Everton
1.74
Southampton
1.76
Watford
2.03
Leeds
2.08
Norwich
2.21
Leeds is 1.39 goals worse than Manchester City in terms of goals conceded per game (2.08 vs 0.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
68%
Liverpool
63%
Chelsea
62%
Brighton
55%
Arsenal
53%
Manchester United
52%
Tottenham
52%
Leeds
52%
Leicester
52%
Crystal Palace
51%
West Ham
48%
Southampton
47%
Aston Villa
46%
Brentford
44%
Norwich
43%
Watford
41%
Newcastle
40%
Burnley
40%
Everton
39%
Leeds is 16.0 percentage points worse than Manchester City in terms of average possession (52% vs 68%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leeds
For 4.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 10.3 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester City
For 8.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.0 · Total 18.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leeds
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.3
4.1
4.5
3.7
22.9
23.4
22.3
vs Stronger (9)
9.9
12.2
8.0
3.7
3.5
3.8
21.7
22.2
21.2
vs Similar (38)
10.5
10.2
10.8
4.3
4.9
3.8
23.1
23.5
22.7
vs Weaker (3)
10.3
10.0
11.0
2.7
3.0
2.0
23.3
25.0
20.0
% over line
50%
56%
44%
54%
56%
52%
56%
60%
52%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
46%
44%
48%
44%
40%
48%
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.4
10.0
3.0
2.6
3.3
18.7
17.9
19.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
9.1
9.2
9.0
4.1
3.2
4.8
19.3
17.8
20.6
vs Weaker (41)
10.5
10.6
10.3
2.7
2.5
3.0
18.5
17.9
19.2
% over line
54%
60%
48%
34%
28%
40%
22%
20%
24%
% under line
46%
40%
52%
66%
72%
60%
78%
80%
76%
This opponent (Leeds) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Burnley
11.6
Southampton
11.3
Aston Villa
11.0
Leicester
10.9
Brighton
10.8
Liverpool
10.7
Leeds
10.4
Watford
10.3
Norwich
10.3
Tottenham
10.3
Manchester United
10.3
Chelsea
10.2
Manchester City
10.2
Everton
10.2
Wolves
10.2
West Ham
9.8
Arsenal
9.7
Crystal Palace
9.7
Brentford
9.5
Newcastle
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aston Villa
4.3
Leeds
4.1
Newcastle
3.7
Wolves
3.7
Brighton
3.6
Tottenham
3.6
Everton
3.6
Manchester United
3.4
Arsenal
3.3
Watford
3.3
Chelsea
3.3
Crystal Palace
3.2
Southampton
3.1
Norwich
3.1
Brentford
3.1
Leicester
3.0
Manchester City
3.0
West Ham
2.9
Liverpool
2.9
Burnley
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
24.7
Crystal Palace
23.3
Watford
23.0
Leeds
22.9
Norwich
22.4
Brentford
22.1
Tottenham
21.7
Chelsea
21.5
Leicester
21.4
Southampton
21.0
Newcastle
20.4
Everton
20.4
Wolves
20.3
Brighton
20.2
Manchester United
19.9
Arsenal
19.4
Burnley
18.8
Manchester City
18.7
Liverpool
18.6
West Ham
16.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
40.8%
Under 9.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
26.6%
Under 21.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leeds
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.47
0.80
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
2.20
0.00
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.74
0.50
0.67
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.23
1.27
0.33
1.00
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.28
0.20
1.31
0.31
1.25
0.08
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leeds over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leeds
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.07
0.60
1.07
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.40
0.50
1.50
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.87
0.67
1.08
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
1.40
0.53
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.60
0.50
0.50
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
1.20
0.40
1.54
0.54
0.83
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leeds over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
72.2%
1.32
-
-
-
-
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leeds · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominic Calvert-Lewin33%
James Justin33%
Anton Stach33%
Ethan Ampadu0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Ampadu33%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin33%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ethan Ampadu0%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Ampadu0%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Manchester City · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Erling Haaland55%
Antoine Semenyo42%
Rayan Cherki20%
Max Alleyne17%
Jérémy Doku15%
Phil Foden14%
Omar Marmoush14%
Nico O'Reilly13%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Savinho11%
Marc Guéhi10%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Rodri6%
Rúben Dias6%
Bernardo Silva6%
Nico González5%
Rico Lewis5%
Matheus Nunes2%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bernardo Silva28%
Gianluigi Donnarumma23%
Nico González20%
Rodri19%
Abdukodir Khusanov17%
Nico O'Reilly15%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Rúben Dias12%
Savinho11%
Phil Foden10%
Marc Guéhi10%
Omar Marmoush9%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Oscar Bobb7%
Tijjani Reijnders4%
Erling Haaland4%
Rayan Cherki4%
Antoine Semenyo4%
Nathan Aké3%
John Stones0%
Jérémy Doku0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Divine Mukasa33%
Rayan Cherki24%
Jérémy Doku19%
Joško Gvardiol16%
Erling Haaland16%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Phil Foden12%
Antoine Semenyo12%
Nico O'Reilly12%
Mateo Kovačić11%
Bernardo Silva9%
Omar Marmoush9%
Oscar Bobb7%
Savinho6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rodri0%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Nathan Aké0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Erling Haaland53%
Antoine Semenyo19%
Omar Marmoush17%
Tijjani Reijnders15%
Rayan Cherki12%
Phil Foden10%
Savinho8%
Rodri6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rico Lewis5%
Jérémy Doku4%
Joško Gvardiol4%
Nico O'Reilly4%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
Matheus Nunes0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
BUR (28)
€115m
NOR (34)
€107m
WAT (22)
€88m
LEI (22)
€69m
Leeds's squad is €899m less valuable than Manchester City's (€427m vs €1326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
NOR (10)
€46m
WAT (6)
€28m
LEI (7)
€20m
Leeds's attack is €470m less valuable than Manchester City's (€166m vs €635m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
NOR (11)
€31m
LEI (4)
€13m
BUR (3)
€8m
Leeds's midfield is €62m less valuable than Manchester City's (€98m vs €160m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
NOR (13)
€29m
WAT (10)
€22m
Leeds's defence is €367m less valuable than Manchester City's (€163m vs €531m).
England: Premier League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Liverpool
Chelsea
Tottenham
Arsenal
Manchester United
West Ham
Leicester
Brighton
Wolves
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Brentford
Aston Villa
Southampton
Everton
Burnley
Watford
Norwich