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Leevon / PPK vs JFK Ventspils Result & Analysis

Date: 08/11/2025
Time: 18:30
Final 3-2
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Vs
37%
28%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leevon / PPK win✓ Hit
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils win✗ Miss
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L23L32W21W01L03L11D00D21W11DA·AUG10/08H·RIG22/08H·SMI30/08H·RĪG14/09A·JDF20/09H·RIG27/09A·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.501.851.771.351.29
vs Stronger (21)1.811.332.381.381.461.31
vs Similar (6)0.832.170.673.331.001.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.331.501.001.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L41W20W12L22D02L02L22D00D10WA·OGR09/08H·TUK22/08A·AUG30/08H·RIG13/09A·SMI20/09H·RĪG27/09A·JDF05/10H·RIG19/10A·SKA25/10H·MĀR01/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.101.691.001.141.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.201.131.501.000.861.29
vs Weaker (15)1.671.071.881.001.431.14
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
7.3%
2-0
6.1%
0-2
5.9%
Leevon / PPK goals ↓
JFK Ventspils goals →
01234
07.3%7.3%5.9%2.7%0.9%
17.4%13%8.3%3.8%1.3%
26.1%8.4%5.8%2.7%0.9%
32.8%3.9%2.7%1.3%0.4%
41.0%1.4%1.0%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leevon / PPK goals (down), columns = JFK Ventspils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ogre United
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga Mariners
2.23
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.85
Augšdaugava
0.54
Leevon / PPK is 0.27 points worse than JFK Ventspils in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.65).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
Ogre United
2.54
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Smiltene
1.77
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.50
Tukums II
1.42
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Skanste
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Augšdaugava
0.73
Leevon / PPK and JFK Ventspils are level in goals scored per game (both 1.54).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ogre United
0.77
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Augšdaugava
2.23
Tukums II
2.31
Progress / AFA Olaine
3.38
Leevon / PPK is 0.42 goals worse than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals conceded per game (1.54 vs 1.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L20W01L00D01L11D00D20W01LA·AUG10/08H·RIG22/08H·SMI30/08H·RĪG14/09A·JDF20/09H·RIG27/09A·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.800.850.920.590.71
vs Stronger (21)0.900.761.250.750.690.77
vs Similar (6)0.000.830.001.330.000.33
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.501.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W00D11D12L01L01L10W00D00DA·OGR09/08H·TUK22/08A·AUG30/08H·RIG13/09A·SMI20/09H·RĪG27/09A·JDF05/10H·RIG19/10A·SKA25/10H·MĀR01/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.400.810.250.430.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.600.470.750.250.430.71
vs Weaker (15)0.670.330.880.250.430.43
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W22D12L20W01L02L00D00D01L10WA·AUG10/08H·RIG22/08H·SMI30/08H·RĪG14/09A·JDF20/09H·RIG27/09A·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.701.000.850.760.59
vs Stronger (21)0.900.571.120.620.770.54
vs Similar (6)0.831.330.672.001.000.67
vs Weaker (3)0.670.331.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L21W20W01L10W01L01L12L00D10WA·OGR09/08H·TUK22/08A·AUG30/08H·RIG13/09A·SMI20/09H·RĪG27/09A·JDF05/10H·RIG19/10A·SKA25/10H·MĀR01/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.700.880.750.710.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.600.670.750.750.430.57
vs Weaker (15)1.000.731.000.751.000.71
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
L/P wins
1
Draws
2
JV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Leevon / PPK vs JFK Ventspils · H/A from L/P
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/25AJFK Ventspils Vs L/P0-0
02/11/24AJFK Ventspils Vs L/P4-1
21/07/24HL/P Vs JFK Ventspils0-1

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs L/P1-1
26/10/25ARēzekne FA Vs L/P1-2
19/10/25HL/P Vs Mārupe0-0
04/10/25ASkanste Vs L/P1-1
27/09/25HL/P Vs Riga FC II0-3
20/09/25AJDFS Alberts Vs L/P1-0
14/09/25HL/P Vs Rīgas FS II2-1
30/08/25HL/P Vs Smiltene3-2
22/08/25HL/P Vs Riga Mariners2-3
10/08/25AAugšdaugava Vs L/P2-1

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/25HJV Vs Mārupe1-0
25/10/25ASkanste Vs JV0-0
19/10/25HJV Vs Riga FC II2-2
05/10/25AJDFS Alberts Vs JV2-0
27/09/25HJV Vs Rīgas FS II0-2
20/09/25ASmiltene Vs JV2-2
13/09/25HJV Vs Riga Mariners1-2
30/08/25AAugšdaugava Vs JV0-2
22/08/25HJV Vs Tukums II4-1
09/08/25AOgre United Vs JV3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWD1.22
HomeLWWLD1.46
AwayLLDWD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%27%
AVG goals2.923.382.50
Over 1.5 %74%79%69%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %32%46%19%
Scored1.421.711.15
Conceded1.501.671.35
BTTS54%62%46%
Clean Sheet20%12%27%
Corners---
Cards---
JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDW1.44
HomeWLLDW1.50
AwayLWDLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.622.652.58
Over 1.5 %78%81%75%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %28%31%25%
Scored1.381.581.17
Conceded1.241.081.42
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ogre UnitedOgre United2658
69%
2.2
6620+46
3.3
81%
73%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.50.8
-
2Riga MarinersRiga Mariners2658
69%
2.2
7434+40
4.2
92%
81%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.3
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
65%
2.2
6024+36
3.2
81%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
4JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2643
42%
1.7
4029+11
2.7
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2641
42%
1.6
4631+15
3.0
85%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6SkansteSkanste2640
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2636
38%
1.4
4040+0
3.1
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
8MārupeMārupe2632
38%
1.2
3033-3
2.4
62%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
9Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2631
31%
1.2
3657-21
3.6
85%
69%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10SmilteneSmiltene2628
31%
1.1
4648-2
3.6
96%
81%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
11Riga FC IIRiga FC II2624
23%
0.9
3543-8
3.0
73%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2623
27%
0.9
3760-23
3.7
81%
77%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
13Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2622
23%
0.8
3988-49
4.9
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.4
-
14AugšdaugavaAugšdaugava2614
12%
0.5
1958-39
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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