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Leevon / PPK vs Smiltene Result & Analysis

Date: 30/08/2025
Time: 10:00
Final 3-2
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Vs
42%
25%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leevon / PPK win✓ Hit
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W42W01L62W32W00D14L10W12L23LA·RIG18/05H·SKA23/05A·MĀR14/06H·RĒZ29/06H·PRO06/07A·JFK19/07A·OGR26/07H·TUK01/08A·AUG10/08H·RIG22/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.801.772.001.181.65
vs Stronger (21)1.571.672.431.571.141.71
vs Similar (6)1.002.500.753.251.501.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.331.501.001.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W21W50W13L12L02L24L20W12L30WH·OGR18/05A·TUK24/05H·AUG14/06A·RIG28/06A·RĒZ06/07A·RĪG20/07H·JDF27/07A·RIG01/08H·SKA09/08A·MĀR23/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.901.562.441.361.29
vs Stronger (6)0.831.670.502.501.001.25
vs Similar (14)1.571.931.782.221.201.40
vs Weaker (10)1.702.001.602.801.801.20
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.7%
Under 2.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 3.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.3%
No
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
5.2%
1-0
5.1%
0-1
4.5%
Leevon / PPK goals ↓
Smiltene goals →
01234
04.4%4.5%4.3%2.3%0.9%
15.1%11%7.7%4.1%1.6%
25.4%8.7%6.9%3.7%1.5%
33.2%5.2%4.1%2.2%0.9%
41.4%2.3%1.8%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leevon / PPK goals (down), columns = Smiltene goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ogre United
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga Mariners
2.23
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.85
Augšdaugava
0.54
Leevon / PPK is 0.31 points better than Smiltene in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
Ogre United
2.54
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Smiltene
1.77
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.50
Tukums II
1.42
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Skanste
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Augšdaugava
0.73
Leevon / PPK is 0.23 goals worse than Smiltene in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.77).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ogre United
0.77
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Augšdaugava
2.23
Tukums II
2.31
Progress / AFA Olaine
3.38
Leevon / PPK is 0.31 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals conceded per game (1.54 vs 1.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L40W01L42W02L00D02L10W02L01LA·RIG18/05H·SKA23/05A·MĀR14/06H·RĒZ29/06H·PRO06/07A·JFK19/07A·OGR26/07H·TUK01/08A·AUG10/08H·RIG22/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.100.691.230.411.00
vs Stronger (21)0.671.101.141.140.431.07
vs Similar (6)0.001.170.001.500.000.50
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.501.001.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D30W02L01L01L12L10W12L10WH·OGR18/05A·TUK24/05H·AUG14/06A·RIG28/06A·RĒZ06/07A·RĪG20/07H·JDF27/07A·RIG01/08H·SKA09/08A·MĀR23/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.930.881.190.570.64
vs Stronger (6)0.501.000.502.000.500.50
vs Similar (14)0.710.931.000.890.201.00
vs Weaker (10)0.900.900.801.401.000.40
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L00D20W30W00D12L00D10W22DA·RIG18/05H·SKA23/05A·MĀR14/06H·RĒZ29/06H·PRO06/07A·JFK19/07A·OGR26/07H·TUK01/08A·AUG10/08H·RIG22/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.701.080.770.760.65
vs Stronger (21)0.900.571.290.430.710.64
vs Similar (6)1.001.330.751.751.500.50
vs Weaker (3)0.670.331.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W20W11D11D01L12L10W00D20WH·OGR18/05A·TUK24/05H·AUG14/06A·RIG28/06A·RĒZ06/07A·RĪG20/07H·JDF27/07A·RIG01/08H·SKA09/08A·MĀR23/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.691.250.790.64
vs Stronger (6)0.330.670.000.500.500.75
vs Similar (14)0.861.000.781.331.000.40
vs Weaker (10)0.801.100.801.400.800.80
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
L/P wins
1
Draws
0
SMI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Leevon / PPK vs Smiltene · H/A from L/P
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/25ASmiltene Vs L/P0-4
11/08/24HL/P Vs Smiltene2-2
13/04/24ASmiltene Vs L/P0-2

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/25HL/P Vs Riga Mariners2-3
10/08/25AAugšdaugava Vs L/P2-1
01/08/25HL/P Vs Tukums II1-0
26/07/25AOgre United Vs L/P4-1
19/07/25AJFK Ventspils Vs L/P0-0
06/07/25HL/P Vs Progress / AFA Olaine3-2
29/06/25HL/P Vs Rēzekne FA6-2
14/06/25AMārupe Vs L/P1-0
23/05/25HL/P Vs Skanste4-2
18/05/25ARiga FC II Vs L/P1-2

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25AMārupe Vs SMI0-3
09/08/25HSMI Vs Skanste1-2
01/08/25ARiga FC II Vs SMI0-2
27/07/25HSMI Vs JDFS Alberts2-4
20/07/25ARīgas FS II Vs SMI2-0
06/07/25ARēzekne FA Vs SMI2-1
28/06/25ARiga Mariners Vs SMI3-1
14/06/25HSMI Vs Augšdaugava5-0
24/05/25ATukums II Vs SMI1-2
18/05/25HSMI Vs Ogre United3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.21
HomeWWWWL1.48
AwayWLDLL0.95
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%43%27%
AVG goals3.023.482.59
Over 1.5 %74%81%68%
Over 2.5 %58%62%55%
Over 3.5 %35%48%23%
Scored1.491.811.18
Conceded1.531.671.41
BTTS53%67%41%
Clean Sheet21%10%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW0.88
HomeWWWLL0.56
AwayLLLWW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%16%32%
AVG goals3.623.883.36
Over 1.5 %96%96%96%
Over 2.5 %74%80%68%
Over 3.5 %42%52%32%
Scored1.361.241.48
Conceded2.262.641.88
BTTS54%48%60%
Clean Sheet12%4%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ogre UnitedOgre United2658
69%
2.2
6620+46
3.3
81%
73%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.50.8
-
2Riga MarinersRiga Mariners2658
69%
2.2
7434+40
4.2
92%
81%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.3
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
65%
2.2
6024+36
3.2
81%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
4JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2643
42%
1.7
4029+11
2.7
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2641
42%
1.6
4631+15
3.0
85%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6SkansteSkanste2640
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2636
38%
1.4
4040+0
3.1
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
8MārupeMārupe2632
38%
1.2
3033-3
2.4
62%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
9Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2631
31%
1.2
3657-21
3.6
85%
69%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
10SmilteneSmiltene2628
31%
1.1
4648-2
3.6
96%
81%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
11Riga FC IIRiga FC II2624
23%
0.9
3543-8
3.0
73%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2623
27%
0.9
3760-23
3.7
81%
77%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
13Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2622
23%
0.8
3988-49
4.9
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.4
-
14AugšdaugavaAugšdaugava2614
12%
0.5
1958-39
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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