Leicester is expected to win this match, with a slight edge in recent form coming off a draw against Notts County. The overall shape of the match is likely to be a closely contested draw. Leicester has a 55% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 19% chance of Burton winning.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with 2 goals being the most likely total. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.3%.
Leicester has been scoring 1.78 goals on average when playing at home, conceding 0.78 goals on average against stronger opponents. Burton, on the other hand, has been scoring 0.78 goals on average when playing away and conceding 1.78 goals on average against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is a Home win, with a probability of 55%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection with a probability of 76.2% and an Under 3.5 goals selection with a probability of 71.4%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Leicester, failed to deliver as the match ended 1-2 in favour of Burton, extending the away side’s unbeaten run. The model had called a home win with a 47 % probability, but that prediction proved wrong. The game’s total of three goals fell well below the expected 2.4, confirming the model’s selection of “Under 7.5” (99.3 % probability) which hit, as did “Away under 2.5 HT goals” (99.1 %) and “Away under 3.5 goals” (98.4 %). Other low-goal picks such as “Under 6.5” (97.9 %) and “Under 5.5” (94.3 %) also hit, while “Away under 1.5 HT goals” (94.3 %) missed. The model’s “Home under 2.5 2H goals” (93.9 %) was correct, as was “Away under 2.5 2H goals” (97.1 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leicester win✗ Miss
47.1%
Avg Implied 60.9% · @ 1.52
Edge
-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.19
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.45
Dafabet
4.40
10Bet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Burton win✓ Hit
24.0%
Avg Implied 16.9% · @ 5.47
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.91
10Bet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.62
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leicester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.47
1.40
1.60
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.58
1.58
1.67
0.92
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.23
1.44
1.06
1.14
1.43
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.62
1.50
1.00
0.50
2.25
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.09
1.42
1.08
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.20-6.6%
Under 1.5
28.9%
@ 4.18+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.47
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.9%
@ 1.66-12.6%
Under 2.5
56.1%
@ 2.16+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
@ 2.60-12.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
@ 1.44+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
10Bet
2.70
Betfair
2.63
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betfair
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.0%
@ 1.74-4.4%
No
51.0%
@ 1.99+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.73
No
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.00
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 7.63+7.8%
1-0
11.5%@ 7.17+5.3%
0-0
10.0%@ 12.38+6.4%
2-0
9.3%@ 7.37+3.3%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.44+3.1%
0-1
7.3%@ 15.06+4.3%
1-2 ✓
6.1%@ 15.40+3.2%
3-0
4.5%@ 10.46+0.3%
Leicester goals ↓
Burton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.3%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.1%
4.4%
1.4%
0.4%
3
4.5%
4.4%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leicester goals (down), columns = Burton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Leicester is 1.17 points better than Burton in terms of average points per game (2.34 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Leicester is 1.15 goals better than Burton in terms of goals scored per game (2.24 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Leicester is 0.53 goals better than Burton in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leicester
For 7.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
For 4.8 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leicester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.5
10.5
3.7
3.8
3.5
22.0
21.7
22.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
11.0
11.4
10.5
3.8
3.9
3.8
22.1
21.7
22.4
vs Weaker (9)
11.1
12.0
10.7
2.9
3.7
2.5
21.8
22.0
21.7
% over line
62%
65%
59%
42%
52%
33%
52%
57%
48%
% under line
38%
35%
41%
58%
48%
67%
48%
43%
52%
This opponent (Burton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.3
3.4
3.1
3.8
22.0
22.0
22.0
vs Stronger (15)
10.4
10.9
9.8
3.3
2.3
4.8
21.1
21.2
20.8
vs Similar (34)
10.4
10.2
10.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.2
22.4
22.1
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
-
8.0
2.0
-
2.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
51%
52%
50%
48%
42%
54%
43%
44%
42%
% under line
49%
48%
50%
52%
58%
46%
57%
56%
58%
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Leicester
11.0
Barnsley
10.9
Wigan
10.7
Blackpool
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Luton
10.3
Burton
10.3
Wycombe
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Doncaster
10.0
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Reading
9.3
Notts County
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.1
Stevenage
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.3
Peterboro
4.3
Huddersfield
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Stevenage
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Burton
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.6
Notts County
24.4
Plymouth
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Huddersfield
24.3
Peterboro
23.9
Luton
23.8
Milton Keynes Dons
23.6
Blackpool
23.5
Wigan
23.3
Leyton Orient
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.6
Cambridge
22.6
Reading
22.6
Mansfield
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Sheffield Weds
22.0
Burton
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
21.0
Barnsley
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.67
Under
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leicester or Draw✗ Miss
80.9%
Avg Implied 82.9% · @ 1.12
Edge
-2.0%
47%
29%
24%
covers Leicester + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Leicester or Burton✓ Hit
74.3%
Avg Implied 78.3% · @ 1.19
Edge
-4.0%
47%
29%
24%
covers Leicester + Burton
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Draw or Burton✓ Hit
44.8%
Avg Implied 38.7% · @ 2.41
Edge
+6.1%
47%
29%
24%
covers Draw + Burton
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.45
1xBet
2.45
888Sport
2.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leicester over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.7%
@ 1.09-2.4%
Under
17.3%
@ 6.25+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Under
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.50
1xBet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
Leicester over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.3%
@ 1.56-7.4%
Under
47.7%
@ 2.31+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.40
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.34
Unibet
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
Leicester over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.7%
@ 2.76-8.1%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.41+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.98
Betfair
2.88
888Sport
2.75
Superbet
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Under
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Leicester over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 5.37-7.2%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.12+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.55
888Sport
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Burton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.2%
@ 1.54+0.8%
Under
38.8%
@ 2.35-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.43
Superbet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Burton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.5%
@ 3.66-0.9%
Under
75.5%
@ 1.25+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.84
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Burton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 10.19-2.1%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
9.30
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Burton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 24.83-2.3%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
28.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leicester, so a minus line means Leicester give that many goals of a start and Burton receive them. At -1, Leicester must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leicester win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leicester)Actual: Burton
Leicester -2
14.3%
@ 4.34-6.2%
Draw -2
17.4%
@ 4.38-3.0%
Burton +2
68.4%
@ 1.51+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Draw
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Away
Unibet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
Handicap -1 (Leicester)Actual: Burton
Leicester -1
31.6%
@ 2.35-6.3%
Draw -1
23.6%
@ 3.53-1.7%
Burton +1
44.8%
@ 2.42+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
10Bet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Handicap +1 (Leicester)Actual: Draw
Leicester +1
80.9%
@ 1.12+2.1%
Draw +1
12.2%
@ 6.62-1.2%
Burton -1
6.9%
@ 11.32-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.60
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Handicap +2 (Leicester)Actual: Leicester
Leicester +2
93.1%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Draw +2
5.1%
@ 16.00-0.8%
Burton -2
1.8%
@ 40.00-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leicester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.93
0.67
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.67
1.08
0.58
0.33
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.62
0.44
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.59
0.67
0.58
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.8%
@ 1.30-4.0%
Under 0.5
32.2%
@ 3.30+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Superbet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.9%
@ 2.41-7.7%
Under 1.5
69.1%
@ 1.52+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Under
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 5.66-6.8%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.11+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
William Hil
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leicester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
53.8%
@ 1.56-5.9%
Under
46.2%
@ 2.31+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.40
10Bet
2.38
1xBet
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Leicester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 3.69-9.2%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.23+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Under
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Leicester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 9.43-3.3%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.70
Betano
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
28.2%
@ 2.69-6.4%
Under
71.8%
@ 1.42+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.92
10Bet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.68
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.60
Under
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.7%
@ 9.78-3.8%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.40
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 40.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leicester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.93
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.92
0.50
1.08
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.81
0.62
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.0%
Under 0.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.0%
Under 1.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.0%
Under 2.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leicester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leicester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leicester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+6.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
89.9%
1.12
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
888Sport
1.13
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.3%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.9%
1.12
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
-2.0%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
80.9%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.2%
1.44
Betfair
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.5%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
74.3%
1.41
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
1.42
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Unibet
1.41
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.1%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-6.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leicester
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Howell25%
Olabade Aluko25%
Wes Burns20%
William Alves20%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid0%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Luke Thomas0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
S. Braybrooke0%
T. Watson0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
Jayden Joseph0%
L. Page0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Souttar50%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid40%
S. Braybrooke40%
Jayden Joseph25%
Olabade Aluko25%
Liam Cullen20%
Wes Burns20%
Luke Thomas20%
T. Watson20%
L. Page20%
J. Stolarczyk0%
William Alves0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
H. Howell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby De Cordova-Reid20%
Luke Thomas20%
L. Page20%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Wes Burns0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
S. Braybrooke0%
William Alves0%
T. Watson0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
Jayden Joseph0%
H. Howell0%
Olabade Aluko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Watson40%
C. McFarlane33%
Jayden Joseph25%
H. Howell25%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid20%
S. Braybrooke20%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Wes Burns0%
Luke Thomas0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
William Alves0%
Admir Bristrić0%
Olabade Aluko0%
L. Page0%
Burton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
G. Evans25%
Kgagelo Chauke25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
J. Armer50%
Sulyman Krubally50%
G. Evans25%
Kyran Lofthouse25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Zac Scutt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse50%
J. Armer25%
Sulyman Krubally25%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Finn Delap0%
Zac Scutt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Leicester's squad is €64m more valuable than Burton's (€69m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Leicester's attack is €19m more valuable than Burton's (€20m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Leicester's midfield is €12m more valuable than Burton's (€13m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Leicester's defence is €34m more valuable than Burton's (€36m vs €2m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe