Leicester are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 45% chance of triumph, a 28% draw probability and a 27% chance of Oxford pulling off an upset. The expected total is 2.7 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that is 26% likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance. Leicester, playing at home against a weaker side, average 0.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Oxford, on the road to a stronger opponent, average 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (98.0% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.5% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (94.4% with a 3% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.0% with a 5% edge). Leicester’s recent form shows a win, while Oxford is coming off a defeat, setting the stage for a tight contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leicester win
45.4%
Avg Implied 55.1% · @ 1.69
Edge
-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
BetVictor
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.82
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.04
Dafabet
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
Oxford win
26.9%
Avg Implied 20.5% · @ 4.53
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leicester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.37
1.29
1.57
0.94
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.50
1.50
1.60
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
1.00
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oxford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.27
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.09
1.36
1.08
1.00
1.10
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.2%
@ 1.23+0.9%
Under 1.5
23.8%
@ 3.76-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.5%
@ 1.78-2.4%
Under 2.5
49.5%
@ 2.00+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Under
Unibet
2.06
Betfair
2.05
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.5%
@ 2.85-4.0%
Under 3.5
71.5%
@ 1.37+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.10
10Bet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
1xBet
2.85
Under
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Both teams to score
Yes
54.9%
@ 1.73+1.3%
No
45.1%
@ 2.00-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.75
No
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.04
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.89+6.7%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.45+3.3%
1-0
9.3%@ 7.10+3.0%
2-0
8.1%@ 8.03+2.5%
0-0
8.0%@ 11.43+4.0%
1-2
6.9%@ 13.34+3.5%
0-1
6.5%@ 12.43+2.9%
2-2
5.3%@ 13.37+2.0%
Leicester goals ↓
Oxford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.5%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.3%
13%
6.9%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.3%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.2%
4.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leicester goals (down), columns = Oxford goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Leicester is 0.76 points better than Oxford in terms of average points per game (2.34 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Leicester is 0.73 goals better than Oxford in terms of goals scored per game (2.24 vs 1.51).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Leicester is 0.37 goals better than Oxford in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leicester
For 6.3 · Against 6.3 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oxford
For 4.9 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.4 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leicester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.6
10.3
3.7
3.8
3.7
22.0
21.9
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
11.0
11.8
10.4
3.9
3.8
4.0
22.0
21.4
22.7
vs Weaker (9)
10.6
11.0
10.2
3.1
4.0
2.4
22.0
24.5
20.0
% over line
62%
67%
58%
46%
54%
38%
52%
54%
50%
% under line
38%
33%
42%
54%
46%
62%
48%
46%
50%
This opponent (Oxford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oxford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
10.6
11.9
3.5
3.3
3.7
22.4
22.4
22.5
vs Stronger (14)
10.6
9.9
11.7
4.0
3.5
4.7
22.4
23.0
21.7
vs Similar (36)
11.5
11.0
11.9
3.3
3.2
3.4
22.4
22.1
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
52%
88%
48%
44%
52%
50%
48%
52%
% under line
30%
48%
12%
52%
56%
48%
50%
52%
48%
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.7
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Blackpool
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.4
Burton
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Bromley
10.2
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.8
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Blackpool
3.9
Doncaster
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Wycombe
3.6
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.6
Oxford
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
23.9
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Blackpool
23.1
Doncaster
22.8
Reading
22.7
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Mansfield
22.3
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
66.0%
@ 1.38-0.8%
Under 9.5
34.0%
@ 2.77+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.49
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.00
Betano
2.90
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.78
Unibet
2.38
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 3.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.1%
Under 21.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leicester or Draw
73.1%
Avg Implied 79.1% · @ 1.18
Edge
-6.1%
45%
28%
27%
covers Leicester + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Leicester or Oxford
72.4%
Avg Implied 76.0% · @ 1.22
Edge
-3.7%
45%
28%
27%
covers Leicester + Oxford
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Draw or Oxford
54.6%
Avg Implied 44.9% · @ 2.07
Edge
+9.7%
45%
28%
27%
covers Draw + Oxford
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.15
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leicester over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
@ 1.13-3.3%
Under
21.2%
@ 5.17+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Unibet
5.10
1xBet
5.05
Leicester over/under 1.5
Over
45.8%
@ 1.73-8.1%
Under
54.2%
@ 2.03+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
Under
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Leicester over/under 2.5
Over
20.4%
@ 3.31-7.7%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.29+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.49
1xBet
3.32
Marathonbet
3.32
10Bet
3.30
Under
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
BetVictor
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Leicester over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
@ 6.95-6.3%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.08+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Oxford over/under 0.5
Over
68.2%
@ 1.48+5.6%
Under
31.8%
@ 2.48-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.54
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Oxford over/under 1.5
Over
31.8%
@ 3.36+4.1%
Under
68.2%
@ 1.29-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.54
1xBet
3.44
Marathonbet
3.44
Bet365
3.40
Under
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Oxford over/under 2.5
Over
10.9%
@ 8.84+0.3%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.04-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.90
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Oxford over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
@ 20.50-1.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leicester, so a minus line means Leicester give that many goals of a start and Oxford receive them. At -1, Leicester must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leicester win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leicester)
Leicester -2
9.6%
@ 5.54-6.5%
Draw -2
14.1%
@ 4.81-4.4%
Oxford +2
76.3%
@ 1.36+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Unibet
5.10
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Betfair
1.30
Handicap -1 (Leicester)
Leicester -1
23.7%
@ 2.81-8.0%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.53-3.5%
Oxford +1
54.6%
@ 2.06+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.79
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.65
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Unibet
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +1 (Leicester)
Leicester +1
73.1%
@ 1.18-2.7%
Draw +1
15.8%
@ 5.99+0.8%
Oxford -1
11.2%
@ 9.62+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
9.10
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Handicap +2 (Leicester)
Leicester +2
88.8%
@ 1.04-1.4%
Draw +2
7.7%
@ 14.00+1.0%
Oxford -2
3.5%
@ 30.00+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leicester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.86
0.71
0.38
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.45
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oxford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.68
0.67
0.67
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.33-2.7%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 3.09+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Pinnacle
3.13
10Bet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.5%
@ 2.54-1.0%
Under 1.5
64.5%
@ 1.46+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Betano
2.65
Betfair
2.60
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.59
Under
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.3%
@ 6.39-2.2%
Under 2.5
87.7%
@ 1.09+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.95
Under
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leicester over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.9%
@ 1.68+1.6%
Under
43.1%
@ 2.08-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.65
Under
Unibet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.03
Leicester over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.9%
@ 4.38-2.2%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.18+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.40
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Leicester over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.7%
@ 10.50-4.2%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Oxford over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.8%
@ 2.51-6.1%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.47+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.51
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Under
1xBet
1.49
Unibet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
Oxford over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.9%
@ 8.75-1.7%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.50
1xBet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Oxford over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leicester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.43
0.86
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
1.05
0.50
1.10
0.58
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oxford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.40
0.27
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.12
0.33
0.00
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.68
0.42
0.33
0.80
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.0%
@ 1.20+1.8%
Under 0.5
21.0%
@ 4.08-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.20
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.98
William Hil
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.3%
@ 1.96+2.7%
Under 1.5
49.7%
@ 1.78-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Under
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.8%
@ 4.05-5.2%
Under 2.5
82.2%
@ 1.21+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leicester over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.9%
@ 1.48+2.1%
Under
35.1%
@ 2.49-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.48
10Bet
2.45
Leicester over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.7%
@ 3.21-4.0%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.29+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Leicester over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
@ 8.17-5.5%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Oxford over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.7%
@ 2.10+5.5%
Under
50.3%
@ 1.66-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
Oxford over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.4%
@ 6.65-2.5%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.07+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Oxford over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 20.50-2.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
29.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.2%
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+3.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
+6.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+1.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-0.3%
Home +2 handicap
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-1.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
+2.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+2.2%
Under 4.5
86.4%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
+3.4%
Under 5.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.2%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+5.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
1.18
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+2.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
79.6%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
BetVictor
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+7.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+1.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
78.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
-3.3%
Over 19.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
76.8%
1.23
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-
+1.8%
Away +2 handicap
76.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Betfair
1.30
+10.9%
Over 1.5
76.2%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+0.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.29
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+4.0%
Home or Draw
73.1%
1.18
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-6.1%
Home +1 handicap
73.1%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-2.7%
Home or Away
72.4%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
-3.7%
Under 3.5
71.5%
1.37
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
+4.0%
Over 2.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leicester
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Howell25%
Olabade Aluko25%
Wes Burns20%
William Alves20%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid0%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Luke Thomas0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
S. Braybrooke0%
T. Watson0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
Jayden Joseph0%
L. Page0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Souttar50%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid40%
S. Braybrooke40%
Jayden Joseph25%
Olabade Aluko25%
Liam Cullen20%
Wes Burns20%
Luke Thomas20%
T. Watson20%
L. Page20%
J. Stolarczyk0%
William Alves0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
H. Howell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby De Cordova-Reid20%
Luke Thomas20%
L. Page20%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Wes Burns0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
S. Braybrooke0%
William Alves0%
T. Watson0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
Jayden Joseph0%
H. Howell0%
Olabade Aluko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Watson40%
C. McFarlane33%
Jayden Joseph25%
H. Howell25%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid20%
S. Braybrooke20%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Wes Burns0%
Luke Thomas0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
William Alves0%
Admir Bristrić0%
Olabade Aluko0%
L. Page0%
Oxford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
G. O'Donkor67%
C. Brannagan33%
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Harris33%
C. Brannagan33%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
C. Brannagan0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
C. Brannagan0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Leicester's squad is €49m more valuable than Oxford's (€69m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Leicester's attack is €14m more valuable than Oxford's (€20m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Leicester's midfield is €8m more valuable than Oxford's (€13m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Leicester's defence is €28m more valuable than Oxford's (€36m vs €8m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Reading
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe