Leicester’s recent 0-0 draw against Milton Keynes Dons leaves them defensively fragile, while Plymouth’s 2-0 win over Bradford shows a potent attack. The model therefore favours an away win, giving Leicester a 28% chance, a draw 25%, and Plymouth a 46% chance. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.5% probability. Leicester averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded at home against similarly strong opposition, whereas Plymouth averages 2.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded on the road against similar teams. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7% with a 5% edge, Under 6.5 at 95.8% with a 1% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.0% with an 8% edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.3% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 90.3% with a 1% edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Plymouth, fell short as Leicester edged a 2-0 victory, extending their recent win streak. The model had tipped an away win with a 46% chance, but the outcome proved wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 95.8%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.0%, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 91.3%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 90.3%. The final score of 2-0 confirmed a home win, leaving the model’s prediction incorrect.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leicester win✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied 48.9% · @ 1.91
Edge
-20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.92
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.73
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.01
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Plymouth win✗ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.59
Edge
+20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leicester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.40
1.29
1.64
0.94
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.55
1.50
1.70
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
1.00
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Plymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Plymouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.27
1.82
1.53
2.00
0.92
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
2.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
2.07
1.20
1.88
1.62
2.29
0.71
vs Weaker (14)
1.71
1.14
1.75
1.12
1.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
@ 1.19+5.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
@ 4.24-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.49
Superbet
4.35
Unibet
4.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.1%
@ 1.65+4.1%
Under 2.5
38.9%
@ 2.18-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Under
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.7%
@ 2.58+2.7%
Under 3.5
61.3%
@ 1.45-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Betfair
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.1%
@ 1.57+4.4%
No
36.9%
@ 2.24-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.60
William Hil
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
BetVictor
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 6.80+4.9%
1-2
9.3%@ 11.28+5.4%
2-1
7.1%@ 7.75+1.4%
0-2
6.8%@ 19.12+4.5%
0-1
6.6%@ 12.35+3.0%
2-2
6.4%@ 11.60+2.5%
1-3
5.6%@ 25.78+3.8%
0-0
5.3%@ 12.70+1.8%
Leicester goals ↓
Plymouth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
6.6%
6.8%
4.1%
1.8%
1
4.8%
11%
9.3%
5.6%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.1%
6.4%
3.8%
1.7%
3
1.8%
3.2%
2.9%
1.7%
0.8%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leicester goals (down), columns = Plymouth goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Leicester is 0.75 points better than Plymouth in terms of average points per game (2.34 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Leicester is 0.61 goals better than Plymouth in terms of goals scored per game (2.24 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Leicester is 0.60 goals better than Plymouth in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leicester
For 7.0 · Against 5.6 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Plymouth
For 6.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leicester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.4
10.3
3.8
3.9
3.7
22.2
22.2
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
10.9
11.4
10.4
3.9
3.9
4.0
22.2
21.7
22.7
vs Weaker (9)
10.6
11.0
10.2
3.1
4.0
2.4
22.0
24.5
20.0
% over line
60%
62%
58%
46%
54%
38%
54%
58%
50%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
54%
46%
62%
46%
42%
50%
This opponent (Plymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Plymouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.8
11.6
4.7
4.7
4.6
24.6
24.1
25.0
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
34.0
34.0
-
vs Similar (26)
11.1
10.5
11.7
4.3
4.4
4.2
23.7
24.1
23.3
vs Weaker (23)
11.5
11.4
11.5
5.2
5.2
5.1
25.0
23.3
26.9
% over line
71%
62%
83%
72%
73%
71%
67%
62%
74%
% under line
29%
38%
17%
28%
27%
29%
33%
38%
26%
This opponent (Leicester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.1
Leicester
10.8
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Blackpool
10.4
Bromley
10.4
Huddersfield
10.3
Burton
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
10.1
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Doncaster
10.0
Stockport
9.9
Mansfield
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
8.9
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.0
Mansfield
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Doncaster
3.8
Luton
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Wycombe
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.9
Plymouth
24.6
Bradford
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Huddersfield
24.4
Luton
24.0
Leyton Orient
23.5
Peterboro
23.4
Wigan
23.4
Blackpool
23.3
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.6
Burton
22.5
Cambridge
22.5
Oxford
22.5
Reading
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Leicester
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Bromley
21.7
Wycombe
21.1
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
65.8%
@ 1.61+8.4%
Under 9.5
34.2%
@ 2.17-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.61
Unibet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Unibet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.5%
Under 3.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.5%
Under 21.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leicester or Draw✓ Hit
53.5%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.26
Edge
-20.6%
28%
25%
46%
covers Leicester + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Leicester or Plymouth✓ Hit
74.8%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
-0.4%
28%
25%
46%
covers Leicester + Plymouth
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Draw or Plymouth✗ Miss
71.6%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.84
Edge
+21.0%
28%
25%
46%
covers Draw + Plymouth
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.89
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leicester over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.5%
@ 1.14-6.9%
Under
25.5%
@ 4.98+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Leicester over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.6%
@ 1.77-12.9%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.96+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Superbet
1.97
Betfair
1.95
Leicester over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 3.41-11.4%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.28+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Under
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Leicester over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 7.24-7.9%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.07+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.20
Betano
6.60
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Plymouth over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
83.3%
@ 1.33+13.6%
Under
16.7%
@ 3.06-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.14
Superbet
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Plymouth over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
53.4%
@ 2.65+18.2%
Under
46.6%
@ 1.44-18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Marathonbet
2.71
1xBet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Under
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Plymouth over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.6%
@ 6.39+12.1%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.08-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
BetVictor
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Plymouth over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 15.25+4.4%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.02-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leicester, so a minus line means Leicester give that many goals of a start and Plymouth receive them. At -1, Leicester must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leicester win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leicester)Actual: Draw
Leicester -2
4.5%
@ 6.55-9.1%
Draw -2
8.4%
@ 5.37-8.2%
Plymouth +2
87.1%
@ 1.28+17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Superbet
6.30
Draw
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Away
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Handicap -1 (Leicester)Actual: Leicester
Leicester -1
12.9%
@ 3.26-14.5%
Draw -1
15.5%
@ 3.76-8.4%
Plymouth +1
71.6%
@ 1.84+22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Away
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Handicap +1 (Leicester)Actual: Leicester
Leicester +1
53.5%
@ 1.26-17.9%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 5.42+4.0%
Plymouth -1
25.9%
@ 7.47+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Leicester)Actual: Leicester
Leicester +2
74.1%
@ 1.07-12.2%
Draw +2
14.4%
@ 10.70+5.8%
Plymouth -2
11.5%
@ 18.33+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.10
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
18.00
Superbet
16.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leicester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.86
0.79
0.38
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.33
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Plymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Plymouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.65
0.88
1.15
0.46
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.53
0.75
0.88
1.43
0.14
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.79
0.50
0.75
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.0%
@ 1.29+2.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
@ 3.32-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.0%
@ 2.40-3.6%
Under 1.5
65.0%
@ 1.51+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.49
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
10Bet
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.54
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.52
Unibet
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.7%
@ 5.61-3.8%
Under 2.5
87.3%
@ 1.11+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leicester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.9%
@ 1.72-3.1%
Under
49.1%
@ 2.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Unibet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Leicester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
23.0%
@ 4.52+2.6%
Under
77.0%
@ 1.16-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.50
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Leicester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 11.67-4.7%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Plymouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.3%
@ 2.20-7.9%
Under
65.7%
@ 1.61+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Under
1xBet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.61
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Plymouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 7.16-4.2%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.06+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Plymouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 25.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leicester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.43
0.86
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
1.05
0.50
1.10
0.58
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Plymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Plymouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
1.18
0.65
0.85
0.46
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.67
1.12
0.75
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.36
1.25
0.38
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
79.2%
@ 1.18+0.1%
Under 0.5
20.8%
@ 4.45-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.8%
@ 1.87-1.0%
Under 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.85+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Unibet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.5%
@ 3.66-3.9%
Under 2.5
78.5%
@ 1.25+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Superbet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leicester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
64.5%
@ 1.50+2.6%
Under
35.5%
@ 2.44-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Leicester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.1%
@ 3.33-2.7%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.28+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Leicester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 8.45-1.3%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.04+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Plymouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 1.84-4.0%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.86+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Plymouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.23-5.6%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.12+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.65
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.15
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Plymouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 14.58-4.0%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.8%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.1%
1.28
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+17.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
84.2%
1.28
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+11.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.3%
1.33
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
+13.6%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
78.9%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.0%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-2.6%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
76.6%
1.36
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.35
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.8%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.5%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-6.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
74.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-12.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
1.29
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
73.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-12.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leicester
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Howell25%
Olabade Aluko25%
Wes Burns20%
William Alves20%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid0%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Luke Thomas0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
S. Braybrooke0%
T. Watson0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
Jayden Joseph0%
L. Page0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Souttar50%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid40%
S. Braybrooke40%
Jayden Joseph25%
Olabade Aluko25%
Liam Cullen20%
Wes Burns20%
Luke Thomas20%
T. Watson20%
L. Page20%
J. Stolarczyk0%
William Alves0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
H. Howell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby De Cordova-Reid20%
Luke Thomas20%
L. Page20%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Wes Burns0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
S. Braybrooke0%
William Alves0%
T. Watson0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
Jayden Joseph0%
H. Howell0%
Olabade Aluko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Watson40%
C. McFarlane33%
Jayden Joseph25%
H. Howell25%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid20%
S. Braybrooke20%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Wes Burns0%
Luke Thomas0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
William Alves0%
Admir Bristrić0%
Olabade Aluko0%
L. Page0%
Plymouth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julio Pleguezuelo25%
Alex Hartridge25%
Will Evans20%
Xavier Amaechi20%
H. White20%
Aribim Pepple20%
M. Ross0%
W. Harding0%
Ronan Curtis0%
Tyreeq Bakinson0%
M. Sorinola0%
C. Watts0%
Bradley Ibrahim0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Xavier Amaechi40%
Bradley Ibrahim25%
W. Harding20%
Will Evans20%
Julio Pleguezuelo0%
M. Ross0%
Alex Hartridge0%
Ronan Curtis0%
Tyreeq Bakinson0%
M. Sorinola0%
H. White0%
Aribim Pepple0%
C. Watts0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. White40%
Tyreeq Bakinson33%
Bradley Ibrahim25%
Julio Pleguezuelo0%
M. Ross0%
Alex Hartridge0%
W. Harding0%
Ronan Curtis0%
Will Evans0%
Xavier Amaechi0%
M. Sorinola0%
Aribim Pepple0%
C. Watts0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Curtis25%
Will Evans20%
Aribim Pepple20%
Julio Pleguezuelo0%
M. Ross0%
Alex Hartridge0%
W. Harding0%
Tyreeq Bakinson0%
Xavier Amaechi0%
M. Sorinola0%
H. White0%
C. Watts0%
Bradley Ibrahim0%
A. Mitchell0%
Murphy Cooper0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Leicester's squad is €56m more valuable than Plymouth's (€69m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Leicester's attack is €16m more valuable than Plymouth's (€20m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Leicester's midfield is €10m more valuable than Plymouth's (€13m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Leicester's defence is €30m more valuable than Plymouth's (€36m vs €6m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Reading
Oxford
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe