Leixoes vs Chaves Prediction & Stats

Leixões and Chaves face each other in a match that feels almost evenly balanced, yet the model points to an away win as the most likely outcome. The odds show a 38% chance of Chaves triumphing, 36% for Leixões, and 27% for a draw. The expected total goals hover around 2.9, with a 24% probability that the match will end in exactly two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance.

Leixões, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. Chaves, on the road, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. The recent form adds nuance: Leixões come off a 2-0 win over Portimonense, while Chaves return from a 1-2 loss to Felgueiras 1932.

The model’s selections highlight a very low-scoring affair: Under 7.5 goals at 98.9%, Under 6.5 at 96.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.1%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.5%. Defensive intensity is expected, with Over 2.5 cards at 92.5% and Over 19.5 fouls at 92.2%. For the more extreme totals, Under 5.5 goals remains strong at 92.2%, while Over 21.5 fouls sits at 84.1%.