PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Leixoes vs Lusitânia Lourosa Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 2-1
Leixoes
Leixoes
Vs
37%
25%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Leixoes a 37% win probability against Lusitânia Lourosa in the Portugal: Segunda Liga on 2026-05-17, with 25% for the draw and 37% for Lusitânia Lourosa. The model estimates around 3.3 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Over 1.5 (85%), Over 3.5 cards (82%).

Results analysis

Leixoes finished 2-1 against Lusitânia Lourosa (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 37% home win, 25% draw and 37% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (85%), Over 3.5 cards (82%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leixoes win✓ Hit
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lusitânia Lourosa win✗ Miss
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LeixoesLeixoes

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W14L13L32W11D20W30W20W23L21WA·SPO28/02H·UNI08/03A·ACA14/03H·PAC22/03A·TOR06/04H·OLI12/04A·FC 20/04H·POR25/04A·MAR01/05A·CHA09/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.701.142.071.311.38
vs Stronger (9)1.111.890.802.601.501.00
vs Similar (21)1.291.621.331.781.251.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L10W34L03L00D11D23L20W00D12LA·FAR01/03H·SPO08/03A·VIZ15/03H·ACA21/03A·UNI05/04H·FC 13/04A·POR19/04H·PAC26/04A·OLI02/05H·TOR09/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.571.071.331.531.80
vs Stronger (7)1.141.291.001.001.251.50
vs Similar (21)1.481.761.181.451.802.10
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
8.3%
2-1 ✓
8.3%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
5.3%
1-0
5.3%
0-2
5.1%
2-0
5.1%
Leixoes goals ↓
Lusitânia Lourosa goals →
01234
04.9%5.3%5.1%2.8%1.1%
15.3%11%8.3%4.5%1.8%
25.1%8.3%6.8%3.7%1.5%
32.8%4.5%3.7%2.0%0.8%
41.1%1.8%1.5%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leixoes goals (down), columns = Lusitânia Lourosa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maritimo
1.94
Torreense
1.74
Academico Viseu
1.74
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Oliveirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Leixoes is 0.21 points better than Lusitânia Lourosa in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.26).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Academico Viseu
1.71
União de Leiria
1.53
Maritimo
1.47
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Farense
0.89
CF Os Belenenses
0.00
Leixoes is 0.06 goals better than Lusitânia Lourosa in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Maritimo
0.85
Torreense
0.97
Academico Viseu
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Pacos Ferreira
1.41
Portimonense
1.44
Oliveirense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Leixoes
1.62
Leixoes is 0.09 goals worse than Lusitânia Lourosa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
Maritimo
52%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Academico Viseu
49%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Oliveirense
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Pacos Ferreira
46%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Leixoes is 1.9 percentage points better than Lusitânia Lourosa in terms of average possession (50% vs 48%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

LeixoesLeixoes

For 4.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

150621639349625929748712715792911H·PACA·ACAA·SPOA·FARA·LUSH·MARH·FC A·OLIH·TORA·PAC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.1

🟨 Cards

8032532232432222213715845454448A·CHAA·MARH·PORA·FC H·OLIA·TORH·PACA·ACAH·UNIA·SPO
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.8

⚠️ Fouls

37016131013161412181819172016152114510171429233030373731351531H·PACA·ACAA·SPOA·FARA·LUSH·MARH·FC A·OLIH·TORA·PAC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa

For 5.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.8

🚩 Corners

1804339723612619106923857129918101015513H·PACA·UNIH·ACAA·VIZA·FARA·BENH·MARH·LEIH·OLIH·UNI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.3

🟨 Cards

903212343323431415455376274595H·TORA·OLIH·PACA·PORH·FC A·UNIH·ACAA·VIZH·SPOA·FAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 16.1 · Total 30.5

⚠️ Fouls

370141515141414131411161522191819181317111329292827273737373024H·PACA·UNIH·ACAA·VIZA·FARA·BENH·MARH·LEIH·OLIH·UNI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

LeixoesLeixoes

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.98.99.05.35.15.525.231.520.1
vs Stronger (15)9.49.39.54.55.04.119.925.715.5
vs Similar (35)8.78.68.85.65.16.128.535.023.2
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line36%25%50%80%83%77%72%88%60%
% under line64%75%50%20%17%23%28%12%40%
This opponent (Lusitânia Lourosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (35)10.49.411.55.85.66.030.131.628.3
vs Stronger (8)10.0-10.07.86.59.037.0-37.0
vs Similar (25)10.910.211.85.45.65.229.531.826.6
vs Weaker (2)5.05.0-2.52.03.030.030.0-
% over line54%43%67%86%83%88%100%100%100%
% under line46%57%33%14%17%12%0%0%0%
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Farense
10.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Academico Viseu
10.1
Torreense
10.0
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.9
Oliveirense
9.7
Benfica B
9.5
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.9
Maritimo
8.3
Sporting CP B
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Feirense
6.8
Benfica B
6.5
Vizela
6.3
Pacos Ferreira
6.2
Chaves
6.0
Sporting CP B
6.0
Felgueiras 1932
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Maritimo
5.9
Leixoes
5.9
Farense
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.8
União de Leiria
5.7
Oliveirense
5.5
Portimonense
5.5
Torreense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Farense
30.5
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Pacos Ferreira
25.7
Sporting CP B
25.0
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
23.9
Academico Viseu
23.0
Oliveirense
22.1
Maritimo
21.9
União de Leiria
21.1
Benfica B
21.1
Vizela
20.8
Felgueiras 1932
20.5
FC Porto B
20.2
Chaves
20.0
Penafiel
20.0
Portimonense
19.3
Torreense
19.0
Feirense
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.4%
Under 9.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.9%
Under 3.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
93.0%
Under 21.5
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 21.5 fouls93.0%--------
Over 1.584.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards81.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (39)
€76m
BB (38)
€76m
FPB (36)
€57m
TOR (32)
€20m
AV (35)
€18m
MAR (26)
€15m
VIZ (31)
€12m
UDL (30)
€12m
FAR (32)
€11m
FEI (33)
€11m
POR (31)
€10m
CHA (29)
€9m
LEI (32)
€8m
F1 (28)
€8m
PEN (29)
€7m
OLI (30)
€7m
LL (27)
€6m
PF (24)
€6m
Leixoes's squad is €2m more valuable than Lusitânia Lourosa's (€8m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (14)
€37m
FPB (14)
€19m
BB (13)
€15m
AV (15)
€8m
TOR (13)
€6m
MAR (10)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
POR (9)
€5m
FEI (12)
€4m
CHA (10)
€4m
UDL (7)
€3m
FAR (13)
€3m
OLI (11)
€3m
PF (10)
€3m
LEI (12)
€3m
F1 (9)
€2m
PEN (9)
€2m
LL (10)
€2m
Leixoes and Lusitânia Lourosa have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (9)
€18m
FPB (7)
€10m
BB (8)
€8m
TOR (6)
€5m
UDL (9)
€3m
FEI (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
AV (6)
€2m
POR (8)
€2m
CHA (8)
€2m
FAR (5)
€2m
PEN (7)
€2m
LEI (6)
€2m
F1 (5)
€2m
VIZ (3)
€2m
LL (5)
€1m
OLI (6)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Leixoes and Lusitânia Lourosa have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (17)
€53m
FPB (15)
€27m
SCB (16)
€21m
TOR (13)
€9m
AV (14)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
FAR (14)
€6m
UDL (14)
€6m
VIZ (15)
€5m
FEI (14)
€4m
POR (14)
€4m
CHA (11)
€4m
F1 (14)
€4m
LEI (14)
€3m
PEN (13)
€3m
OLI (13)
€3m
LL (12)
€3m
PF (12)
€2m
Leixoes and Lusitânia Lourosa have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Leixoes vs Lusitânia Lourosa · H/A from LEI
DateH/AGameScore
08/01/26ALusitânia Lourosa Vs LEI2-2

LeixoesLeixoes

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26AChaves Vs LEI1-2
01/05/26AMaritimo Vs LEI3-2
25/04/26HLEI Vs Portimonense2-0
20/04/26AFC Porto B Vs LEI0-3
12/04/26HLEI Vs Oliveirense2-0
06/04/26ATorreense Vs LEI1-1
22/03/26HLEI Vs Pacos Ferreira3-2
14/03/26AAcademico Viseu Vs LEI3-1
08/03/26HLEI Vs União de Leiria1-4
28/02/26ASporting CP B Vs LEI0-1

Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HLL Vs Torreense1-2
02/05/26AOliveirense Vs LL0-0
26/04/26HLL Vs Pacos Ferreira2-0
19/04/26APortimonense Vs LL3-2
13/04/26HLL Vs FC Porto B1-1
05/04/26AUnião de Leiria Vs LL0-0
21/03/26HLL Vs Academico Viseu0-3
15/03/26AVizela Vs LL4-3
08/03/26HLL Vs Sporting CP B1-0
01/03/26AFarense Vs LL2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Leixoes
Leixoes
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.30
HomeLLWWW1.29
AwayLDWLW1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%35%
AVG goals2.702.832.58
Over 1.5 %76%75%77%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.181.251.12
Conceded1.521.581.46
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners8.938.889.00
Cards5.895.306.50
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDL1.31
HomeWLDWL1.39
AwayLLDLD1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals2.772.393.18
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %57%44%71%
Over 3.5 %31%22%41%
Scored1.261.111.41
Conceded1.511.281.76
BTTS57%56%59%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners10.389.4311.50
Cards5.805.616.00

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MaritimoMaritimo3466
59%
1.9
5029+21
2.3
65%
38%
24%
7.7
20%
6.4
91%
30.1
93%
15
6271.50.9
52%
2Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu3459
50%
1.7
5833+25
2.7
68%
56%
35%
9.8
54%
6.1
91%
29.1
100%
18
8281.71.0
49%
3TorreenseTorreense3459
53%
1.7
4633+13
2.3
59%
44%
21%
10.2
38%
5.4
82%
23.1
62%
20
6591.41.0
46%
4FC Porto BFC Porto B3451
44%
1.5
4142-1
2.4
68%
50%
21%
9.6
55%
6.3
82%
29.4
100%
57
1910271.21.2
47%
5VizelaVizela3451
41%
1.5
3940-1
2.3
65%
41%
21%
9.1
33%
6.6
88%
29.9
78%
12
5251.11.2
54%
6União de LeiriaUnião de Leiria3450
38%
1.5
5246+6
2.9
74%
59%
44%
10.2
69%
5.9
82%
30.6
100%
12
3361.51.4
51%
7LeixoesLeixoes3450
44%
1.5
4655-9
3.0
82%
59%
35%
8.7
27%
6.1
91%
30.1
91%
8
3231.41.6
50%
8FeirenseFeirense3446
35%
1.4
3740-3
2.3
62%
44%
18%
9.3
29%
7.0
94%
29.1
86%
11
4241.11.2
42%
9ChavesChaves3445
38%
1.3
4240+2
2.4
65%
35%
24%
8.3
38%
6.3
82%
27.9
85%
9
4241.21.2
55%
10Benfica BBenfica B3444
32%
1.3
4344-1
2.6
79%
44%
15%
9.6
50%
6.9
91%
31.8
92%
76
158531.31.3
54%
11Felgueiras 1932Felgueiras 19323444
32%
1.3
3438-4
2.1
62%
32%
18%
10.2
56%
5.9
79%
29.4
89%
8
2241.01.1
54%
12FarenseFarense3644
31%
1.2
3237-5
1.9
61%
31%
8%
9.7
44%
5.9
86%
31.0
100%
11
3260.91.0
49%
13Lusitânia LourosaLusitânia Lourosa3443
32%
1.3
4452-8
2.8
76%
59%
32%
10.4
54%
5.9
85%
30.1
100%
6
2131.31.5
48%
14Sporting CP BSporting CP B3442
38%
1.2
4134+7
2.2
53%
44%
18%
8.3
40%
6.0
70%
25.0
80%
76
3718211.21.0
54%
15PenafielPenafiel3441
32%
1.2
3739-2
2.2
65%
38%
15%
11.2
80%
5.6
71%
27.1
70%
7
2231.11.1
49%
16PortimonensePortimonense3440
32%
1.2
3949-10
2.6
68%
41%
24%
10.6
78%
5.7
88%
32.9
100%
10
5241.11.4
48%
17Pacos FerreiraPacos Ferreira3439
26%
1.1
3448-14
2.4
68%
50%
24%
9.5
46%
6.3
82%
29.5
85%
6
3021.01.4
46%
18OliveirenseOliveirense3434
24%
1.0
3449-15
2.4
65%
44%
24%
9.2
55%
5.2
61%
29.3
91%
7
3131.01.4
49%
19CF Os BelenensesCF Os Belenenses21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
4.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →

← all matches