Leixoes face União de Leiria in the Portugal: Segunda Liga, with União de Leiria looking to build on their recent form, having come off a defeat against Vizela, similar to Leixoes who also suffered a loss to Benfica B. The model predicts a União de Leiria win, with a 44% chance of an away victory, 27% chance of a draw, and 29% chance of a Leixoes win. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, and the most likely score is 1-1, occurring 12.5% of the time.
In home matches against similar opponents, Leixoes have scored an average of 1.56 goals and conceded 1.67. Meanwhile, União de Leiria have scored 1.31 goals and conceded 1.31 in away matches against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (90.8%), Over 3.5 cards (80.5%), and Over 1.5 (79.9%). The probabilities of a home, draw, and away win are 29%, 27%, and 44% respectively.
Results analysis
The recent form shows Leixoes struggling after a defeat, while União de Leiria returns from a win. The model’s favourite, an away victory, came through as the final score was 2-4, confirming the prediction. The model’s probability for the away win was 42 %. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.9 %, Under 6.5 hit at 97.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.5 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.7 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.0 %, and Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.1 %. All picks settled in favour of the model’s choices.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leixoes win✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.28
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.32
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.19
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.35
Dafabet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.25
União de Leiria win✓ Hit
42.3%
Avg Implied 31.3% · @ 2.92
Edge
+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.09
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.00
Dafabet
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leixoes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.47
1.36
1.71
1.38
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.86
1.00
1.33
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.43
1.65
1.45
1.82
1.42
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.47
1.71
1.57
1.44
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.48
1.45
1.71
1.57
1.27
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
2.00
-
-
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
@ 1.27+5.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
@ 3.43-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.88+3.5%
Under 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.85-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
888Sport
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.9%
@ 3.19+1.7%
Under 3.5
69.1%
@ 1.31-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
888Sport
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
@ 1.69+2.7%
No
42.4%
@ 2.05-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
No
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.06
Betfair
2.05
1xBet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 5.86+5.4%
1-2
9.1%@ 9.65+4.5%
0-1
8.1%@ 8.67+3.0%
2-1
7.5%@ 8.38+2.2%
0-0
7.2%@ 9.19+2.4%
0-2
7.1%@ 14.02+4.0%
1-0
6.5%@ 7.69+0.8%
2-2
5.7%@ 12.00+2.1%
Leixoes goals ↓
União de Leiria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
8.1%
7.1%
3.6%
1.4%
1
6.5%
13%
9.1%
4.6%
1.8%
2
4.9%
7.5%
5.7%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.1%
3.2%
2.4%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leixoes goals (down), columns = União de Leiria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Leixoes and União de Leiria are level in average points per game (both 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Leixoes is 0.18 goals worse than União de Leiria in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Leixoes is 0.26 goals worse than União de Leiria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Leixoes is 1.4 percentage points worse than União de Leiria in terms of average possession (50% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leixoes
For 4.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
União de Leiria
For 4.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.1 · Against 13.5 · Total 30.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leixoes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.9
9.0
5.2
5.2
5.2
26.4
31.5
21.9
vs Stronger (12)
10.0
9.0
12.0
5.1
5.8
4.8
20.2
23.0
17.5
vs Similar (38)
8.6
8.8
8.4
5.2
5.1
5.4
28.3
34.3
23.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
25%
50%
76%
83%
70%
76%
88%
67%
% under line
64%
75%
50%
24%
17%
30%
24%
12%
33%
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
8.9
11.0
4.4
4.2
4.6
25.1
22.0
30.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.8
8.9
11.0
4.6
4.5
4.7
26.1
23.4
30.1
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
1.7
1.5
2.0
5.0
5.0
-
% over line
56%
56%
57%
62%
54%
69%
76%
69%
88%
% under line
44%
44%
43%
38%
46%
31%
24%
31%
12%
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Torreense
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
AVS
25.7
Tondela
25.1
Sporting CP B
25.0
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
União de Leiria
23.1
FC Porto B
21.9
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Portimonense
20.8
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.5%
@ 1.82-5.3%
Under 9.5
54.5%
@ 1.88+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
Under
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
80.3%
Under 3.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
90.5%
Under 21.5
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leixoes or Draw✗ Miss
57.7%
Avg Implied 68.5% · @ 1.35
Edge
-10.8%
30%
27%
42%
covers Leixoes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Leixoes or União de Leiria✓ Hit
72.6%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.29
Edge
+1.0%
30%
27%
42%
covers Leixoes + União de Leiria
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Draw or União de Leiria✓ Hit
69.7%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.55
Edge
+9.9%
30%
27%
42%
covers Draw + União de Leiria
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leixoes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.9%
@ 1.24-2.7%
Under
28.1%
@ 3.65+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.00
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.64
Leixoes over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.2%
@ 2.20-6.1%
Under
63.8%
@ 1.61+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betfair
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.21
Under
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Leixoes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 4.89-5.4%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.15+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
5.00
10Bet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Leixoes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 10.97-4.6%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
União de Leiria over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.4%
@ 1.32+8.2%
Under
21.6%
@ 3.12-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
888Sport
3.10
10Bet
3.10
União de Leiria over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.3%
@ 2.61+9.8%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.44-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Marathonbet
2.66
1xBet
2.66
888Sport
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
União de Leiria over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
20.0%
@ 6.22+5.0%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.09-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
10Bet
6.25
Under
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
União de Leiria over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
7.0%
@ 15.94+1.0%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.02-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leixoes, so a minus line means Leixoes give that many goals of a start and União de Leiria receive them. At -1, Leixoes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leixoes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leixoes)Actual: União de Leiria
Leixoes -2
4.5%
@ 9.85-4.6%
Draw -2
8.9%
@ 6.62-4.6%
União de Leiria +2
86.5%
@ 1.16+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.20
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Away
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Handicap -1 (Leixoes)Actual: União de Leiria
Leixoes -1
13.5%
@ 4.27-7.1%
Draw -1
16.9%
@ 3.88-5.8%
União de Leiria +1
69.7%
@ 1.55+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.30
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Away
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (Leixoes)Actual: União de Leiria
Leixoes +1
57.7%
@ 1.35-7.2%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 4.42+0.8%
União de Leiria -1
21.7%
@ 5.75+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.28
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.70
Unibet
4.90
Handicap +2 (Leixoes)Actual: Draw
Leixoes +2
78.3%
@ 1.10-3.9%
Draw +2
13.0%
@ 8.10+1.8%
União de Leiria -2
8.6%
@ 14.00+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Away
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leixoes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.43
0.93
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.83
0.45
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.93
0.64
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.90
0.59
0.93
0.64
0.87
0.53
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.1%
@ 1.38+2.9%
Under 0.5
29.9%
@ 2.82-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
William Hil
2.90
10Bet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.2%
@ 2.73+0.3%
Under 1.5
65.8%
@ 1.40-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.88
Betano
2.82
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
William Hil
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.7%
@ 6.76-0.9%
Under 2.5
87.3%
@ 1.07+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
William Hil
7.00
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
Betfair
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leixoes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.6%
@ 1.99-2.3%
Under
55.4%
@ 1.75+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Leixoes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 6.14-2.2%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.09+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.35
Superbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Leixoes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 16.92-3.2%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
União de Leiria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.4%
@ 2.19+3.0%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.61-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
União de Leiria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
10.7%
@ 7.26-2.1%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.06+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
União de Leiria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 21.17-2.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leixoes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.93
0.79
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.82
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.79
0.93
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.86
0.79
0.93
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.0%
Under 0.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.3%
Under 1.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.2%
Under 2.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leixoes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-1.0%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.4%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
-5.0%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
78.4%
1.32
Betano
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
78.3%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-3.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.1%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.0%
1.30
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
-
-
+6.7%
-
Home or Away
72.6%
1.29
Betano
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.31
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.9%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.38
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.39
+2.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leixoes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bryan Róchez80%
Benjamin Kanuric50%
José Bica50%
Bryan Róchez33%
Semeu Commey33%
Paulité25%
Ricardo Valente12%
Salvador Agra10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Simãozinho0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Cláudio Araújo0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Amadu Balde0%
Hugo Faria0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neto50%
Paulinho Mota44%
Rafael Santos40%
Hugues Evrard33%
Miguel Sousa33%
Gonçalo Tabuaço33%
Benjamin Kanuric25%
Paulité25%
José Bica25%
Serif Nhaga25%
Hugo Faria25%
Werton22%
Salvador Agra20%
Simãozinho20%
Bryan Róchez20%
Amadu Balde17%
Cláudio Araújo10%
Ricardo Valente0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Semeu Commey0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benjamin Kanuric25%
Cláudio Araújo20%
Amadu Balde17%
Lourenco Henriques14%
Salvador Agra10%
Simãozinho10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Paulité0%
José Bica0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Semeu Commey0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Hugo Faria0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
José Bica50%
Bryan Róchez40%
Bryan Róchez33%
Semeu Commey33%
Salvador Agra20%
Cláudio Araújo10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Simãozinho0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Benjamin Kanuric0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Paulité0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Amadu Balde0%
Hugo Faria0%
União de Leiria · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juan Muñoz33%
Victor Rofino33%
Pablo Fernández29%
Jordan van der Gaag20%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes17%
Jair da Silva17%
Dieu-Merci Michel14%
João Silva12%
Daniel Borges12%
José Pedro10%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Albert Lottin0%
Maga0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Marcelo0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
Genaro0%
Marc Baró0%
Lucho Vega0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
Miguel Pires0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Borges50%
Maga45%
Marc Baró36%
Victor Rofino33%
Jair da Silva33%
Dieu-Merci Michel29%
Marcelo25%
Albert Lottin20%
José Pedro20%
Miguel Pires18%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes17%
Genaro14%
Pablo Fernández14%
Jordan van der Gaag10%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Juan Muñoz0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
João Silva0%
Lucho Vega0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan van der Gaag20%
Pablo Fernández20%
Marc Baró18%
Juan Muñoz17%
Dieu-Merci Michel14%
Daniel Borges12%
Lucho Vega10%
Maga9%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Albert Lottin0%
Marcelo0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
João Silva0%
Genaro0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
José Pedro0%
Victor Rofino0%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes0%
Miguel Pires0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Jair da Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juan Muñoz58%
Jair da Silva50%
Dieu-Merci Michel43%
Daniel Borges12%
Jordan van der Gaag10%
Kouassi Eboue0%
Albert Lottin0%
Maga0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Marcelo0%
Diogo Martins0%
João Victor0%
João Silva0%
Genaro0%
Marc Baró0%
Lucho Vega0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
José Pedro0%
Victor Rofino0%
Bernardo Martim Aguiar Gomes0%
Miguel Pires0%
Dieu-Merci Michel0%
Victor Silva0%
Pablo Fernández0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Leixoes's squad is €4m less valuable than União de Leiria's (€6m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Leixoes's attack is €2m less valuable than União de Leiria's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Leixoes and União de Leiria have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Leixoes's defence is €1m less valuable than União de Leiria's (€3m vs €4m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
Felgueiras 1932
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves