Leningradets are favoured to win at home against Arsenal Tula, with a recent-form note suggesting they're coming off a defeat. Despite this, they hold an advantage in the model's prediction, which forecasts a home win. The model suggests a relatively low-scoring match with an expected total of 2.3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 28% of the time.
Leningradets have struggled to score at home, averaging 1.29 goals per match against stronger opponents, while conceding 2 goals on average. Meanwhile, Arsenal Tula has scored 1.5 goals away against weaker opponents, with a defensive record of 1 goal conceded per match.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 42% probability. The draw is a 31% possibility, while an away win is 27% likely. The model's suggested picks include Under 21.5 fouls (100% probability), Under 9.5 corners (98% probability), and Under 3.5 (80.1% probability, with a 3% edge). Leningradets have a 42% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 27% chance of losing.
Leningradets pulled off a stunning draw against Arsenal Tula, extending their unbeaten run at home. The final score was a 0-0 stalemate, resulting in a draw. This result was a major upset, as the pre-match favourite, Leningradets, was predicted to win with a 42% probability. However, the model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong. The model's suggestion, Under 3.5, was correct, hitting with an 80.1% probability. Another suggested pick, Leningradets to win, was also correct, but its probability was not provided. The model had suggested Arsenal Tula to win, but it missed with a 27% probability.
Leningradets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.43 | 0.94 | 1.65 | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.95 | 1.41 | 0.86 | 1.71 | 1.12 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal Tula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.37 | 0.94 | 1.12 | 1.29 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.14 | 1.39 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.29 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
| Arsenal Tula goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Leningradets
Arsenal Tula
Leningradets| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (42) | 8.5 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (12) | 7.0 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 9.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 27% | 38% | 14% | 38% | 41% | 35% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 73% | 62% | 86% | 62% | 59% | 65% | - | - | - |
Arsenal Tula| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 1.7 | 1.7 | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.9 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 32% | 32% | 32% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 68% | 68% | 68% | - | - | - |
Leningradets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.24 | 0.47 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.36 | 0.45 | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal Tula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.46 | 0.82 | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Leningradets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.18 | 0.38 | 0.77 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.50 | 1.12 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.59 | 0.95 | 0.57 | 1.21 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal Tula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 80.1% | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.19 | 1.19 | - | - | +3.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.9% | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | -0.1% | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/07/23 | A | 0-0 |
Leningradets| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/08/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 06/08/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 04/09/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/08/24 | H | 4-0 | |
| 31/07/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 25/05/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 20/05/24 | A | 1-2 |
Arsenal Tula| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |