Leningradets is coming off a defeat, having lost 1-2 to Veles, and will look to bounce back against FC Sochi. However, their home form has been inconsistent, scoring an average of one goal and conceding two at home against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, FC Sochi is riding high after a 2-1 win over Torpedo Moskva, but their away form is also a concern, conceding an average of two goals on the road.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5, which has an 86% chance of happening. This suggests that the model expects a low-scoring match, which aligns with the expected total goals of 2.0. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 15.1% probability.
The model favours a home win, with a 37% chance of Leningradets emerging victorious. The draw percentage stands at 34%, while FC Sochi has a 29% chance of winning. The most likely score in this scenario is 1-1, with a 14.8% probability.
In terms of specific match-ups, Leningradets has struggled to score at home against stronger opponents, while FC Sochi has been conceding an average of two goals on the road.
The win extends Leningradets' run, with their recent form reading LWDLW. They hosted FC Sochi on August 1, with the final score being 2-1. The actual result was a home win, which aligns with the model's selection. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Leningradets, with a 37% pre-match probability of winning. The model's selection, Leningradets to win, was also correct. The suggested picks largely came in, with Under 3.5 goals hitting at 86% probability. The model's call on the favourite was correct.
Leningradets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.47 | 0.88 | 1.69 | 0.86 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.95 | 1.41 | 0.86 | 1.71 | 1.12 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
FC Sochi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.97 | 1.31 | 1.94 | 1.07 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.92 | 2.67 | 1.14 | 3.29 | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.39 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 0.89 | 1.33 | 2.11 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Sochi goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 15% | 11% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 13% | 15% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Leningradets
FC Sochi
Leningradets| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (40) | 8.4 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (11) | 6.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 9.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 21% | 29% | 14% | 38% | 38% | 37% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 79% | 71% | 86% | 62% | 62% | 63% | - | - | - |
FC Sochi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 27.1 | 26.1 | 28.0 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 10.5 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 26.8 | 25.2 | 28.5 |
| vs Similar (33) | 8.4 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 27.3 | 26.8 | 27.7 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 9.0 | - | 9.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 62% | 38% | 62% | 60% | 64% | 94% | 93% | 94% |
| % under line | 50% | 38% | 62% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
Leningradets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
FC Sochi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 1.17 | 0.29 | 1.57 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Leningradets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.97 | 0.62 | 1.19 | 0.36 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.38 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.55 | 0.91 | 0.57 | 1.21 | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
FC Sochi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.13 | 0.81 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.86 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.44 | 0.78 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 86.0% | 1.25 | 1.29 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | +12.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 82.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 80.9% | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +10.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.3% | 1.55 | 1.59 | 1.54 | 1.52 | - | - | +12.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Leningradets| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/08/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 06/08/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 04/09/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/08/24 | H | 4-0 | |
| 31/07/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 25/05/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 20/05/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/05/24 | H | 1-3 |
FC Sochi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 4-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |