Pythia gives Levadiakos a 62% win probability against OFI in the Greece: Super League 1 on 2026-05-13, with 21% for the draw and 17% for OFI. The model estimates around 3.4 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 2-1 the most likely scoreline (9.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Over 1.5 (86%).
Results analysis
Levadiakos finished 3-2 against OFI (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 62% home win, 21% draw and 17% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Over 1.5 (86%), Over 23.5 fouls (86%), Under 11.5 corners (85%), Over 3.5 cards (78%), Under 10.5 corners (76%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Levadiakos win✓ Hit
62.2%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.60
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.89
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
OFI win✗ Miss
17.0%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.66
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Levadiakos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.43
2.79
1.07
1.44
1.75
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.20
1.00
1.80
0.80
2.60
vs Similar (15)
2.67
0.93
3.57
0.57
1.88
1.25
vs Weaker (5)
2.60
1.40
4.50
1.00
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.70
1.47
1.27
1.07
2.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
2.14
0.71
1.86
1.00
2.43
vs Similar (16)
1.62
1.31
2.12
0.75
1.12
1.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Levadiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.5%
@ 1.62+9.3%
Under 2.5
33.5%
@ 2.17-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.3%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
7.4%
1-0
6.6%
3-0
6.5%
2-2
5.5%
1-2
4.8%
Levadiakos goals ↓
OFI goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
2.9%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
1
6.6%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
2
8.5%
9.7%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.5%
7.4%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
4
3.7%
4.2%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Levadiakos goals (down), columns = OFI goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
OFI Crete
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.79
Panserraikos
0.76
Levadiakos is 0.39 points better than OFI in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI Crete
1.34
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.92
Panserraikos
0.66
Levadiakos is 0.66 goals better than OFI in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Levadiakos
1.50
Larisa
1.61
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI Crete
1.72
OFI
1.72
Panserraikos
2.03
Levadiakos is 0.22 goals better than OFI in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Larisa
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Panserraikos
37%
Levadiakos is 11.1 percentage points better than OFI in terms of average possession (56% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Levadiakos
For 2.8 · Against 3.9 · Total 6.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 18.3 · Total 33.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
OFI
For 2.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 16.2 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Levadiakos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.9
8.5
5.1
5.2
5.1
29.9
29.6
30.3
vs Stronger (14)
9.6
8.9
10.5
5.1
4.2
6.2
30.6
30.5
30.8
vs Similar (24)
8.2
8.8
7.6
5.2
5.5
4.9
29.8
30.2
29.4
vs Weaker (12)
8.8
9.0
8.6
5.1
5.8
4.6
29.5
26.8
31.4
% over line
38%
46%
31%
78%
83%
73%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
62%
54%
69%
22%
17%
27%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.9
9.6
5.6
6.0
5.2
28.7
30.1
27.1
vs Stronger (22)
8.7
8.3
9.2
5.2
5.9
4.5
28.3
30.7
25.9
vs Similar (27)
9.7
9.4
9.9
6.1
6.4
5.8
29.1
30.0
28.2
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
42%
31%
54%
84%
88%
79%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
58%
69%
46%
16%
12%
21%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Levadiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kifisia
9.6
Aris Thessalonikis
9.5
Asteras Tripolis
9.3
OFI
9.2
OFI Crete
9.2
Atromitos
9.0
AEK Athens FC
8.8
Volos NFC
8.7
Panserraikos
8.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.7
Levadiakos
8.7
Panetolikos
8.7
Larisa
8.6
PAOK
8.5
Panathinaikos
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.7
Larisa
6.1
Panserraikos
6.0
Volos NFC
5.7
Asteras Tripolis
5.7
OFI
5.6
AEK Athens FC
5.6
OFI Crete
5.6
Panetolikos
5.4
Panathinaikos
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.2
Levadiakos
5.1
Atromitos
5.0
PAOK
4.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kifisia
32.6
Larisa
32.4
Volos NFC
30.8
Atromitos
30.7
Levadiakos
29.9
AEK Athens FC
29.7
OFI Crete
28.8
OFI
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.5
Aris Thessalonikis
28.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.7
Panserraikos
27.5
Panetolikos
27.3
PAOK
25.2
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
34.9%
Under 9.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.3%
Under 3.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.2%
Under 21.5
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Levadiakos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
1.07
0.43
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.47
1.57
0.00
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.80
1.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.87
0.53
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.14
0.14
0.86
0.71
1.43
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.38
1.50
0.25
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Levadiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Levadiakos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Levadiakos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.73
1.71
0.64
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.20
0.80
0.80
0.80
1.60
vs Similar (15)
1.40
0.47
2.00
0.57
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.60
3.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.60
0.73
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.94
0.62
0.50
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Levadiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Levadiakos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
OFI over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →