Barcelona’s recent three-game winning streak and a 5-2 victory over Rayo Vallecano set the tone for a clear favourite at Levante’s home ground, where the model rates an away win at 69%. Levante’s home form is weak against stronger opponents, scoring only 0.33 goals per game and conceding 0.67, while Barcelona, playing away against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. The expected total is 3.5 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Barcelona, a 9.4% chance. Home win probability sits at 13%, a draw at 18%, and an away win at 69%. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9% (edge 5%), Home under 3.5 goals at 97.3% (edge 1%), Under 7.5 at 96.8% (edge 2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.8% (edge 4%), Away +2 handicap at 94.5% (edge 1%), Under 6.5 at 92.5% (edge 3%), Away over 0.5 goals at 91.8% (edge 1%), and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 91.8% (edge 1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Levante win
14.4%
Avg Implied 10.1% · @ 9.38
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
12.70
Marathonbet
12.50
Dafabet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.50
Draw
18.8%
Avg Implied 15.0% · @ 6.29
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.75
1xBet
6.70
Dafabet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Barcelona win
66.8%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.27
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Levante
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.43
1.67
1.07
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
2.00
0.33
0.67
0.25
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.62
1.33
2.00
1.17
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.00
3.12
0.75
1.86
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.33
1.67
0.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.79
0.92
3.46
0.77
2.00
1.09
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Levante) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.4%
@ 1.08+2.0%
Under 1.5
11.6%
@ 6.83-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Under
Unibet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.95
Betano
6.60
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.1%
@ 1.32-0.7%
Under 2.5
29.9%
@ 3.21+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Under
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.0%
@ 1.87-1.8%
Under 3.5
51.0%
@ 1.93+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
SBO
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Under
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
SBO
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Both teams to score
Yes
62.6%
@ 1.64+6.0%
No
37.4%
@ 2.14-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
No
Unibet
2.23
William Hil
2.20
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%@ 8.33+3.9%
0-2
8.4%@ 7.97+2.7%
1-1
8.2%@ 11.70+4.4%
1-3
7.8%@ 9.19+2.9%
0-3
7.0%@ 8.62+1.7%
0-1
5.9%@ 10.37+1.6%
2-2
5.2%@ 17.11+2.6%
1-4
4.9%@ 12.80+1.4%
Levante goals ↓
Barcelona goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
5.9%
8.4%
7.0%
4.4%
1
2.2%
8.2%
9.4%
7.8%
4.9%
2
1.7%
4.2%
5.2%
4.4%
2.7%
3
0.6%
1.6%
2.0%
1.6%
1.0%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Levante goals (down), columns = Barcelona goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Levante is 1.37 points worse than Barcelona in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 2.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Levante is 1.26 goals worse than Barcelona in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Levante is 0.66 goals worse than Barcelona in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Levante is 26.0 percentage points worse than Barcelona in terms of average possession (43% vs 69%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Levante
For 5.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barcelona
For 5.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 10.6 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Levante
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.3
4.6
5.0
4.2
24.4
25.3
23.6
vs Stronger (10)
13.0
10.4
15.6
4.3
4.8
3.8
23.5
25.8
21.2
vs Similar (35)
9.4
10.1
8.8
4.7
4.8
4.6
24.8
25.6
24.1
vs Weaker (5)
9.5
8.5
10.5
4.4
7.0
2.7
23.5
22.0
25.0
% over line
52%
57%
48%
62%
70%
56%
69%
74%
64%
% under line
48%
43%
52%
38%
30%
44%
31%
26%
36%
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.1
9.9
3.4
2.9
4.0
21.8
21.3
22.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
9.6
11.0
8.2
4.8
3.6
6.2
23.9
21.8
26.0
vs Weaker (41)
10.7
11.2
10.2
3.1
2.7
3.6
21.3
21.2
21.5
% over line
60%
59%
61%
42%
31%
54%
56%
50%
61%
% under line
40%
41%
39%
58%
69%
46%
44%
50%
39%
This opponent (Levante) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.3%
@ 1.48-7.9%
Under 9.5
45.7%
@ 2.43+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.48
Under
Unibet
2.43
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.9%
Under 3.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.3%
Under 21.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Levante or Draw
33.2%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.78
Edge
+8.1%
14%
19%
67%
covers Levante + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.18
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Levante or Barcelona
81.2%
Avg Implied 85.4% · @ 1.11
Edge
-4.3%
14%
19%
67%
covers Levante + Barcelona
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Draw or Barcelona
85.6%
Avg Implied 89.5% · @ 1.06
Edge
-3.8%
14%
19%
67%
covers Draw + Barcelona
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Levante over/under 0.5
Over
67.3%
@ 1.57+8.1%
Under
32.7%
@ 2.28-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Under
Unibet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Levante over/under 1.5
Over
30.8%
@ 3.79+6.2%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.24-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Pinnacle
3.89
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Levante over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
@ 11.29+2.0%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.03-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
13.25
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
12.70
Betfair
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Levante over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
@ 23.50-1.4%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Barcelona over/under 0.5
Over
91.8%
@ 1.03+1.0%
Under
8.2%
@ 10.25-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Under
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
10.50
Betfair
9.00
Betano
8.50
Barcelona over/under 1.5
Over
71.4%
@ 1.24-3.7%
Under
28.6%
@ 3.73+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Under
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.79
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
Barcelona over/under 2.5
Over
45.7%
@ 1.78-6.7%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.96+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Under
Marathonbet
2.05
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.97
Betfair
1.95
Barcelona over/under 3.5
Over
24.3%
@ 2.96-7.1%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.36+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.12
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Under
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Levante, so a minus line means Levante give that many goals of a start and Barcelona receive them. At -1, Levante must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Levante win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Levante)
Levante -2
1.6%
@ 53.50-0.2%
Draw -2
3.9%
@ 20.50-0.7%
Barcelona +2
94.5%
@ 1.01+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
56.00
Bet365
51.00
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
Away
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Handicap -1 (Levante)
Levante -1
5.5%
@ 15.56-0.3%
Draw -1
8.9%
@ 9.00-1.1%
Barcelona +1
85.6%
@ 1.07+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Handicap +1 (Levante)
Levante +1
33.2%
@ 3.77+9.4%
Draw +1
20.9%
@ 3.98-1.7%
Barcelona -1
45.9%
@ 1.68-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.70
Away
Unibet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.62
Handicap +2 (Levante)
Levante +2
54.1%
@ 2.06+10.5%
Draw +2
19.5%
@ 4.08-2.5%
Barcelona -2
26.4%
@ 2.60-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.19
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Away
Unibet
2.70
10Bet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.48
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Levante
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.53
0.67
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
0.71
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.81
0.67
0.75
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.44
0.38
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
1.33
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.12
0.38
1.46
0.38
0.73
0.36
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Levante) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.5%
@ 1.18-1.7%
Under 0.5
22.5%
@ 4.49+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.5%
@ 1.93-0.4%
Under 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.84+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
SBO
1.99
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Under
SBO
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 3.96-7.8%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.22+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Levante over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.5%
@ 2.74+1.6%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.41-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.90
Marathonbet
2.84
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.80
10Bet
2.60
Under
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Levante over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
@ 10.50-0.9%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.05+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.25
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Levante over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
@ 15.00-5.2%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Barcelona over/under 0.5 HT
Over
62.5%
@ 1.36-5.9%
Under
37.5%
@ 2.95+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Under
10Bet
3.20
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.90
Unibet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
Barcelona over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.5%
@ 2.61-8.1%
Under
72.5%
@ 1.44+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
1xBet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
10Bet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Barcelona over/under 2.5 HT
Over
10.3%
@ 6.02-5.1%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.09+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Levante
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.13
0.40
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.33
0.33
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.52
1.33
0.42
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.47
1.69
0.38
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.67
0.54
2.00
0.38
1.27
0.73
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Levante) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.2%
@ 1.11-1.6%
Under 0.5
16.8%
@ 6.17+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Under
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
6.50
Betano
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
10Bet
5.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.9%
@ 1.55-7.6%
Under 1.5
47.1%
@ 2.36+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Under
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.38
10Bet
2.30
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.1%
@ 2.69-7.9%
Under 2.5
72.9%
@ 1.45+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
10Bet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.67
1xBet
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Levante over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.9%
@ 2.27-0.2%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.58+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.32
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.22
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.54
Levante over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.1%
@ 7.29+0.4%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.06-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
7.60
Betano
6.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Levante over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
@ 12.50-4.2%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Barcelona over/under 0.5 2H
Over
70.9%
@ 1.21-6.2%
Under
29.1%
@ 4.08+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Under
1xBet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Barcelona over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.2%
@ 1.99-15.7%
Under
68.8%
@ 1.75+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.70
Barcelona over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.6%
@ 4.08-10.2%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.20+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.10
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
Under 7.5
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
Away +2 handicap
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+0.9%
Under 6.5
92.5%
1.06
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
+2.5%
Away over 0.5 goals
91.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+1.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+5.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
89.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-2.0%
Over 1.5
88.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
+2.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
87.4%
1.20
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
-
-
+10.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.9%
1.06
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-0.4%
Draw or Away
85.6%
1.06
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
-3.8%
Away +1 handicap
85.6%
1.07
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
+1.5%
Over 2.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+7.8%
Under 5.5
84.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
+2.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.11
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
-1.6%
Home or Away
81.2%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-4.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.5%
1.18
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-1.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
75.7%
1.36
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
+7.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.9%
1.45
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.40
+7.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
72.5%
1.44
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
+8.1%
Over 21.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
71.4%
1.24
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
-3.7%
Away over 0.5 2H goals
70.9%
1.21
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
-6.2%
Under 4.5
70.2%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
+2.3%
Over 2.5
70.1%
1.32
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.30
-0.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Levante
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adrián de la Fuente33%
Enzo Bardeli33%
Jon Ander Olasagasti33%
Jeremy Toljan0%
Aïssa Mandi0%
Mathew Ryan0%
Víctor García0%
Manuel Sánchez0%
Oriol Rey0%
Iván Romero0%
Etta Eyong0%
Nacho Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jeremy Toljan33%
Iván Romero33%
Adrián de la Fuente0%
Aïssa Mandi0%
Mathew Ryan0%
Víctor García0%
Manuel Sánchez0%
Oriol Rey0%
Enzo Bardeli0%
Jon Ander Olasagasti0%
Etta Eyong0%
Nacho Pérez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Enzo Bardeli33%
Jon Ander Olasagasti33%
Etta Eyong33%
Adrián de la Fuente0%
Jeremy Toljan0%
Aïssa Mandi0%
Mathew Ryan0%
Víctor García0%
Manuel Sánchez0%
Oriol Rey0%
Iván Romero0%
Nacho Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adrián de la Fuente33%
Iván Romero33%
Jeremy Toljan0%
Aïssa Mandi0%
Mathew Ryan0%
Víctor García0%
Manuel Sánchez0%
Oriol Rey0%
Enzo Bardeli0%
Jon Ander Olasagasti0%
Etta Eyong0%
Nacho Pérez0%
Barcelona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Raphinha100%
Fermín López67%
Karim Adeyemi33%
Lamine Yamal33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Pedri0%
Anthony Gordon0%
Joan García0%
Marc Bernal0%
Xavi Espart0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Xavi Espart33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Raphinha0%
Karim Adeyemi0%
Pedri0%
Anthony Gordon0%
Joan García0%
Fermín López0%
Lamine Yamal0%
Marc Bernal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Gordon67%
Xavi Espart67%
Raphinha33%
Karim Adeyemi33%
Pedri33%
Marc Bernal33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Joan García0%
Fermín López0%
Lamine Yamal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Raphinha67%
Lamine Yamal67%
Anthony Gordon33%
Fermín López33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Karim Adeyemi0%
Pedri0%
Joan García0%
Marc Bernal0%
Xavi Espart0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Levante's squad is €1193m less valuable than Barcelona's (€89m vs €1282m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Levante's attack is €539m less valuable than Barcelona's (€51m vs €590m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Levante's midfield is €307m less valuable than Barcelona's (€16m vs €324m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Levante's defence is €346m less valuable than Barcelona's (€22m vs €368m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga