PythiaFootballBETA
Levante is expected to emerge victorious in this La Liga encounter against Mallorca, with a predicted home win probability of 51%. The model also picks a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.2%.
Levante has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.64 goals and conceding 1.18, while facing opponents of similar strength. Mallorca, on the other hand, has been scoring an average of 0.78 goals and conceding 1.89 when playing away against similar opponents.
The model suggests several selections, including Over 21.5 fouls (79.9%), Under 3.5 (75.5%), Over 3.5 cards (73.7%), and Over 1.5 (72.7%). Home win is the most likely outcome, with a 51% chance of Levante winning, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of Mallorca winning.
The win extends Levante's run of four consecutive victories, but they were not without a struggle. The final score was 2-0 in their favour, securing a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's call was vindicated as the favourites came in, with Levante's home form and strength in front of goal proving decisive. The model's other selections largely came in, with "Over 21.5 fouls" (79.9%), "Under 3.5" (75.5%), "Over 3.5 cards" (73.7%), and "Over 1.5" (72.7%) all hitting.
Levante| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.53 | 1.36 | 1.14 | 1.06 | 1.88 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 2.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 3.25 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.38 | 1.33 | 1.58 | 1.25 | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 1.33 | - | - | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Mallorca| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.47 | 1.79 | 1.14 | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.89 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.25 | 2.75 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.40 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| Mallorca goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 12% | 13% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
LevanteMallorcaLevante| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 25.0 | 26.1 | 23.8 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 12.1 | 8.8 | 15.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 22.5 | 25.0 | 20.0 |
| vs Similar (33) | 9.8 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 25.7 | 27.2 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 9.5 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 24.4 | 23.8 | 25.3 |
| % over line | 49% | 50% | 48% | 68% | 71% | 65% | 73% | 79% | 68% |
| % under line | 51% | 50% | 52% | 32% | 29% | 35% | 27% | 21% | 32% |
Mallorca| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 24.5 | 24.9 | 24.1 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 11.2 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 22.9 | 25.4 | 21.2 |
| vs Similar (32) | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 25.2 | 24.6 | 25.8 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 10.0 | - | 10.0 | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 28.0 | - | 28.0 |
| % over line | 53% | 52% | 54% | 54% | 48% | 59% | 73% | 78% | 69% |
| % under line | 47% | 48% | 46% | 46% | 52% | 41% | 27% | 22% | 31% |
Levante| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.36 | 0.64 | 0.44 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.17 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.42 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.67 | - | - | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Mallorca| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 1.33 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Levante| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.17 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.95 | 0.62 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.67 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Mallorca| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.77 | 1.14 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 0.75 | 1.44 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 88.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 75.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/01/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/10/21 | A | 1-0 | |
| 09/07/20 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/19 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/03/17 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/10/16 | H | 2-1 |
Levante| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 16/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
Mallorca| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 94 | 82% | 2.5 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 3.4 | 89% | 74% | 42% | 11.3 | 68% | 4.5 | 51% | 21.4 | 50% | 1301 | 589 | 298 | 413 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | 86 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 55% | 26% | 9.9 | 55% | 4.8 | 54% | 24.4 | 68% | 1256 | 712 | 250 | 294 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 58% | 1.9 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.1 | 92% | 58% | 37% | 9.1 | 45% | 4.3 | 58% | 24.1 | 61% | 360 | 168 | 55 | 137 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 45% |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 69 | 55% | 1.8 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 26% | 10.8 | 61% | 4.4 | 59% | 20.9 | 39% | 540 | 226 | 123 | 190 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 60 | 39% | 1.6 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 2.8 | 89% | 53% | 26% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 65% | 23.7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 2.7 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 8.4 | 29% | 4.4 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 200 | 81 | 39 | 80 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 51 | 39% | 1.3 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 1.8 | 58% | 26% | 5% | 8.9 | 37% | 5.6 | 79% | 29.8 | 100% | 94 | 46 | 25 | 23 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 40% |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50 | 32% | 1.3 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 2.2 | 71% | 37% | 16% | 10.9 | 66% | 5.3 | 74% | 24.5 | 76% | 94 | 29 | 11 | 54 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 2.7 | 79% | 42% | 24% | 9.9 | 45% | 4.6 | 68% | 24.2 | 66% | 147 | 54 | 46 | 47 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 46 | 29% | 1.2 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 3.2 | 82% | 58% | 42% | 10.1 | 53% | 5.0 | 63% | 26.6 | 76% | 270 | 132 | 54 | 83 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 24% | 9.5 | 45% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.5 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 45 | 34% | 1.2 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.7 | 74% | 47% | 21% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 67% | 24.3 | 66% | 236 | 103 | 57 | 76 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 13 |  Elche | 38 | 43 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 2.8 | 79% | 58% | 39% | 8.3 | 34% | 4.6 | 71% | 28.3 | 92% | 127 | 34 | 37 | 56 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.9 | 74% | 28.4 | 95% | 78 | 26 | 22 | 29 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 15 |  Sevilla | 38 | 43 | 32% | 1.1 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 2.8 | 79% | 55% | 26% | 9.3 | 50% | 5.2 | 68% | 27.6 | 82% | 163 | 65 | 28 | 70 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 2.5 | 68% | 50% | 26% | 8.6 | 32% | 5.1 | 79% | 25.1 | 82% | 99 | 51 | 13 | 35 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 17 | Mallorca | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 2.7 | 84% | 63% | 21% | 10.0 | 58% | 4.7 | 62% | 24.6 | 74% | 77 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 18 | Levante | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 2.8 | 87% | 45% | 29% | 10.2 | 47% | 4.9 | 71% | 25.3 | 76% | 111 | 68 | 15 | 27 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 16% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.4 | 50% | 25.0 | 71% | 199 | 83 | 33 | 84 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | 29 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 2.3 | 66% | 39% | 16% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.2 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 61 | 26 | 11 | 23 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 46% |